Monday, October 28, 2019

Markets jump higher on trade deal prospects

Dow gained 166, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ advanced 73.  The MLP index crawled higher in the 221s & the REIT index was off 1+ to 411.  Junk bond funds pulled back & Treasuries were sold.  Oil slid lower in the 56s & gold fell 11 to 1493.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil56.75
+0.09+0.2%

GC=FGold   1,494.30
-11.00-0.7%






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Pres Trump says the first phase of a trade deal with looks to be ahead of schedule.  "We are looking probably to be ahead of schedule to sign a very big portion of the China deal, we'll call it Phase One but it's a very big portion,'' he told reporters.  "That would take care of the farmers. It would take care of some of the other things. It'll also take care of a lot of the banking needs."  His comments come after Beijing said on Sat that phase one was "basically complete."  Trade representatives from the 2 countries held a phone call on Fri as they continued to iron out a deal.  The tentative US-China deal is said to include China making concessions on intellectual property, financial services & agriculture.  In return, the US agreed not to implement new tariffs on Chinese goods on Oct 15.  A decision has not yet been made about the new tariffs that are scheduled to hit goods made in China beginning Dec 15.

Trump: US-China trade deal's phase one ahead of schedule


Later this week the gov will release the monthly jobs report monthly jobs report for Oct at a time when a new survey says business hiring is slowing.  Hiring by US companies has fallen to a 7-year low & fewer employers are raising pay, a business survey has found.  Just 1/5 of the economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said their companies have hired additional workers in the past 3 months.  That is down from 1/3 in Jul.  Job totals were unchanged at 69% of companies, up from 57% in Jul.  A broad measure of job gains in the survey fell to its lowest level since 2012.  The hiring slowdown comes as more businesses are reporting slower growth of sales & profits.  Business economists also expect the economy's growth to slow in the coming year, partly because tariffs have raised prices & cut into sales for many firms.  Perhaps because of concerns over a weakening economy, businesses are less likely to offer higher pay, even with unemployment at a 50-year low.  Just 1/3 of economists said their firms had lifted pay in the past 3 months, down from more than ½ a year ago.  Companies are also cutting back on their investments in machinery, computers & other equipment.  The proportion of firms increasing their spending on such goods is at its lowest level in 5 years.  Sales are also growing more slowly.  Just 39% of economists said they rose in the past 3 months, down from 61% a year earlier.  And only 38% said they expect sales to rise in the next 3 months, also down from 61% a year ago.  Many business economists blamed Pres Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum & on most imports from China for worsening business conditions.  35% said the duties have hurt their companies, while only 7% said they had a positive effect.  Of those who said tariffs had impacted their companies, 19% said they had lowered their sales & 30% said the duties pushed up costs.  The US economy likely added 90K new nonfarm jobs this month according to a recent survey, down 46K from the Sep tally of 136K jobs.  It would mark the slowest growth since the addition of 62K payrolls in May & would be well below the average monthly gain of 161K this year.  2/3 of the economists surveyed now forecast that the economy will grow just 1.1-2% from Q3-2019 thru Q3-2020.  A year ago, they were more bullish: Nearly ¾ forecast growth of 2.1-3% from Q3-2018 thru Q3-2019.

US business hiring falls to a 7-year low


The EU has agreed to postpone the UK's exit from the bloc for 3 months, paving the way for a departure on, or before, Jan 31, 2020.  The British £ was little changed, trading at 1.283 versus the $.  "The EU27 has agreed that it will accept the UK's request for a #Brexit flextension until 31 January 2020. The decision is expected to be formalised through a written procedure," Donald Tusk, pres of the European Council, tweeted today.  The decision, which prevents the UK from crashing out of the EU without a deal, comes after the 2 sides reached a deal on Oct 17 that would have allowed the UK to leave, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson was unable to get parliament's approval.  That deal called on Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK''s customs territory, which would make it an entry point into the EU's single market.  No customs checks would've be done at the border between Ireland & Northern Ireland.  The rest of the deal was mostly the same as agreed to in the 2018 withdrawal agreement.  Brexit was originally supposed to occur on Mar 29, 2019, but was delayed after then Prime Minister Thresea May was unable to get the deal thru Parliament.  Once Brexit is agreed upon, the 2 sides will have a transition period of up to 21 months, which would allow for the negotiation of trade deals & theoretically make the transition easier.

Brexit delayed until Jan. 31


Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), a Dow stock & & Dividend Aristocrat, has laid off an undisclosed number of employees at its corp headquarters as the drugstore chain cuts costs, the company said.  The layoffs come as the WBA plans to cut more than $1.8B in expenses by fiscal year 2022, up from the previously planned $1.5B.  The company made “select reductions” in its headquarters last week, CFO James Kehoe said when discussing its fiscal Q4 earnings.  “The additional restructuring is underway in our retail pharmacy intl, and pharmaceutical wholesale divisions are also working hard to define our new vision,” he added.  The company has completed a review of its real estate footprint, he said, adding that Walgreens is shrinking & reorganizing its global digital & IT teams under a new chief information officer.  Cohn said the company was “modifying our corporate support office structure to drive organizational efficiencies and reduce our cost base, while promoting investment in truly differentiating capabilities.”  He added that the cutbacks won't affect any store positions or locations.  The company earlier this year announced it would shutter 200 Walgreens stores.  Execs addressed the cost cuts, saying the savings are necessary to invest in modernizing the drugstore chain.  The company rebranded the cost-cutting program internally to “Save to Invest to Grow.”   The stock added 85¢ on the news.
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Walgreens cuts jobs at its US headquarters as drugstore chain slashes costs

The S&P 500 shot up 19 to 3042 for a new record while the Dow needs another 200 for a record.  The trade talks finally appear to be making progress, but a final deal is still in the future.  After more than a year of stumbling, investors are eager to see a done deal.  Meanwhile while Brexit got another extension & data on the US economy along with forecasts are only so-so.  Overall, the bulls are happy & pushing stocks higher.

Dow Jones Industrials









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