Friday, October 18, 2019

Markets slide lower on sluggish growth data for Chinese economy

Dow dropped 63, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ lost 36.  The MLP index was fractionally higher to the 221s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 412s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries crawled higher in price.  Oil was flattish near 54 & gold fell 3 to 1494.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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CL=FCrude Oil54.21
+0.28+0.5%

GC=FGold   1,494.10
 -4.20 -0.3%






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China said its economy grew by 6% in Q3r from a year earlier.  It's believed to be China’s slowest GDP gain in at least 27 years.  The forecast had expected China's GDP to grow 6.1% from Q3-2018.  In Q2, China’s statistics bureau said the economy from a year earlier, as the country's trade war with the US took its toll.  China's GDP has fallen sharply since Q1-2018, when it gained 6.8% due to credit tightening & the country's trade dispute with the US.  Beijing's offficial growth target for 2019 is 6-6.5%.  Q3 was the slowest since Q1-1992, the earliest quarterly data on record.  Economists are pessimistic about the immediate outlook for China even though there were some bright spots in the Sep data, with retail sales up 7.8% from a year ago & industrial output rising 5.8%.  Fixed asset investment rose 5.4% from Jan to Sep.  Although Beijing's official GDP figures are tracked as an indicator of the health of the world's 2nd-largest economy, many outside experts have long expressed skepticism about the veracity of China’s reports.  Recent data out of China has not been upbeat & analysts expect economic stimulus measures to be rolled out soon.  China's import & export data for Sep came in worse than expected amid the country's trade friction with the US.

China says its economy grew 6% in the third quarter, slower than expected

Coca-Cola (KO), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported quarterly revenue that topped expectations as more customers are drawn in by healthier options, like Zero Sugar soda & smaller size cans.  “Our performance gives us confidence that our strategies are taking hold with our consumers, customers and system,” CEO James Quincey said.  EPS rose to 60¢, up from 44¢ a year earlier.  Excluding impairment charges, gains from the sale of a NY building, & other items, the beverage giant earned 56¢, in line with the forecast.  Net sales rose 8% to $9.5B, topping expectations of $9.4B.  Organic revenue grew by 5%, helped by higher prices & customers buying more expensive drinks.  As soda consumption declines in the US, KO has been driving sales by focusing on drinks with less sugar & smaller packaging.  Coke Zero Sugar once again saw double-digit volume growth.  Its 7.5-ounce mini cans of soda grew 15%.  Minute Maid & juice brand Simply also saw strong performance in the company's home market.  North American organic revenue grew by 3% during the qtr.  Quincey said that the company plans to address weaker performance in its water brands.  KO once again updated its 2019 outlook for organic revenue.  It now expects at least 5% growth after telling investors last qtr to expect organic revenue growth of 5%.  The company also released a partial forecast for fiscal 2020.  It is expecting a 1-2% currency headwind next year to impact its comparable revenue & a 2-3% currency headwind to hit its operating income. CFO John Murphy said that the $ is strengthening, rather than weakening as expected.  The stock rose 1.49.
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Coca-Cola says strong sales of Coke Zero Sugar are driving revenue growth

The US grew more slowly in Sep & is likely to remain soft in the months ahead, according to an index that measures the nation's economic health.  The leading economic index (LEI) slipped 0.1% in Sep & fell for the 2nd month in a row, the privately run Conference Board said.  The index fell mostly because of weakness among American manufacturers, whose sales have suffered from sluggish exports & disruptions in their supply chains caused by the US trade war with China.  The narrowing spread between short-term & long-term US interest rates, often a precursor to recession, was another negative.  The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators designed to signal business-cycle peaks & valleys.  The US-China trade war has hurt the world's 2 largest economies, with the damage radiating out to other countries around the world.  The impasse over the UK's exit from the EU has added to the problems.  The damage has been enough to push the US & China to resume negotiations, but it's still unclear if there’s enough consensus for the 2 countries to strike a deal.  The spat is likely to remain a drag on the global economy until there's a sharp de-escalation in tensions.

Leading economic indicators fall for 2nd straight month, point to slower U.S. growth


With a lack of inspiring news, stocks are slipping lower.  Even safe haven gold & Treasuries are not seeing significant prices moves.  The weak data for the Chinese economy, while not a great surprise, was a reminder of what China is going thru as it navigates its way thru trade negotiations with the US.  The Dow remains just under the 27K psychologically important line.

Dow Jones Industrials








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