Friday, October 1, 2021

Markets advance as traders shake off the September blues

Dow surged 482, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ shot up 118.  The MLP index gained 2+ to the 184s & the REIT index went up 5+ to the 349s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries continued in very strong demand.  Oil rose in the 75s & gold edged up 1 to 1758 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The House waited for word on whether it would vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill today as Dems tried to forge a consensus on a broader spending deal.  As his legislative priorities hung in the balance, Pres Biden planned to go to the Capitol later today to meet with House Dems & rally support for his economic agenda.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had told centrist Dems the chamber would pass the infrastructure plan yesterday.  Dem leaders pushed the vote until today at the earliest, as progressives threatened to sink the bill until they get assurances the Senate will approve a broader plan to invest in party priorities including climate policy, household tax credits & health-care expansion.  Dems cited progress after a flurry of talks among White House officials & key members of Congress bled into early today.  Pelosi suggested the infrastructure bill could pass today even as the progressive & centrist flanks of her party stood Ts of $s apart on a desired price tag for the 2nd spending package.  “We are on a path,” the speaker told reporters when asked if the legislation would pass today.  The Dem caucus huddled to discuss its strategy ahead of Biden's visit.

House infrastructure vote on hold as Democrats try to strike deal on broader social spending bill

General Motors (GM) US vehicle sales during the 3rd qtr plummeted by more than 30% from last year as an ongoing shortage of semiconductor chips interrupted vehicle production & cut dealer inventories.  The automaker said it sold about 447K vehicles from Jul thru Sep, down 32.8% from a year earlier when sales volumes were depressed due to the coronavirus pandemic.  The decline was slightly wider than expectations of 28.9% & 31.5%.  The chip shortage has caused GM to shutter plants for weeks, if not months, & also partially produce vehicles that are in high demand such as its full-size pickup trucks to then finish when chips become available.  GM plans to make up some lost volume in Q4, as Steve Carlisle, GM pres of North America, said the chip supply constraint is improving.  “The semiconductor supply disruptions that impacted our third-quarter wholesale and customer deliveries are improving,” he added.  “As we look to the fourth quarter, a steady flow of vehicles held at plants will continue to be released to dealers, we are restarting production at key crossover and car plants, and we look forward to a more stable operating environment through the fall.”  GM reported its overall sales thru Sep were level with a year ago at about 1.8M units.  Sales for the brands are all up for the year aside from Chevrolet, which is down by 5.6%.  Buick increased by 27.4%, GMC by 8% & Cadillac by 10.8%.  The stock rose 44¢.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Chip shortage tanks GM’s third-quarter sales 

Gold futures ended higher, tallying a small gain for the week, with prices finding some support from weakness in the $ & gov bond yields even after a reading on the cost of US goods & services revealed a rise for Aug.  Futures for the precious metal, based on the most-active contract, posted a weekly gain of 0.4%, even as yields for the 10-year Treasury climbed for the week & the $, as gauged by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, recently rallied to the highest level in nearly a year.  Dec gold rose $1 to settle at $1758 an ounce.  Yesterday, the most-active gold contract posted a 3.4% loss for the month, its sharpest monthly decline since Jun & a 0.8% fall for the qtr.  Bullish investors made the case that uncertainty around the economic rebound & Federal Reserve's policy due to inflation concerns foster a good environment for bullion & other precious metals.  That is even as the Fed is set to taper monthly purchases of $120B in Treasuries & other bonds that helped to provide liquidity to troubled markets during the worst of the COVID pandemic. 

Gold prices end higher to notch a modest weekly gain

Oil futures finished higher, building on a gain for the week, as traders weighed possible outcomes for the decision by OPEC & its allies on crude production levels.  The group of oil producers (OPEC+) will meet Mon & production quotas could be revised higher amid indications of rising global demand.  Thurs, a report said that OPEC+ is weighing additional production increases beyond its existing deal to boost production by 400K barrels per day as prices for crude trade near year 3-year highs.  The group had been widely expected to keep current plans to raise overall production by 400K barrels a day each month in place.  Nov West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 85¢ (1.1%) to settle at $75.88 a barrel, the highest front-month contract finish since Oct 2018.  Dec Brent, the global benchmark, added 97¢ (1.2%) to settle at $79.28 a barrel.  For Sep, WTI gained 9.5%, while Brent saw a rise of 7.6%, based on the front-month contracts.  For the qtr, WTI climbed of 2.1%, up a 6th consecutive qtr, while Brent marked a 4.5% advance.  Reports on OPEC+’s plans & a surprise jump in US inventories have combined to weigh on crude prices for the week.  Prices, however, still tallied a gain from last Fri's close.  Energy Information Administration data revealed a weekly rise of 4.6M barrels in US.  Crude inventories were higher after 7 consecutive weeks of declines on the back of storm disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.  Data from Baker Hughes implied future gains in crude production, with the number of active US oil rigs up by 7 at 428 this week, a 4th-weekly climb in a row.

Oil futures gain Friday and for week, ahead of Monday’s OPEC+ decision on output

The bulls returned, looking to grab what looked like bargains after the selling in Sep.  But there was selling into the close.  For the week, Dow was down about 500.  Nothing has been decided in DC & this may drag on for some time.  Next week will bring more data on Sep economic data.

Dow Jones Industrials








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