Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Markets jump as oil reaches new multi year highs

Dow rose 198, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ went up 107.  The MLP index finished about even in the 198s & the REIT index was flattish in the 464s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries continued to be sold, bringing the yield n the 10 year Treasury up 5 basis pints to 1.63%.  Oil was crawled higher in the 82s (multi year highs) & gold added 5 to 1770 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pfizer's (PFE) Covid (CDC) vaccine is 93% effective at protecting against hospitalization in 12-18-year-olds, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention said in a small study.  The CDC followed 464 Covid patients across 19 US pediatric hospitals from Jun thru Sep when the delta variant was surging across the country.  While roughly 72% of them had at least one underlying condition that increased their potential for severe symptoms, researchers found that 97% of those who ended up in the hospital weren't vaccinated.  “These data suggest that increasing vaccination coverage among this group could reduce the incidence of severe COVID-19 in the United States,” CDC researchers wrote in their Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report.  Among the Covid patients, 6 were vaccinated & 173 were unvaccinated.  Some 43% required intensive care & 16% of the critically ill children received life support, with 2 deaths among the group, according to the study.  The CDC’s findings are similar to the results of a study conducted in Israel, which found that PFE's Covid vaccine was almost 92% effective in preventing hospitalization among 12-15-year-old patients.  But the Israeli study did not feature enough cases to properly gauge the vaccine’s full effectiveness against Covid hospitalizations, the CDC wrote.  The stock rose 79¢.
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7   

CDC study shows Pfizer vaccine is 93% effective against hospitalization in adolescents

China's power shortages hit growth in the world's 2nd-biggest economy, threatening more pain for global supply chains, while Europe's gas squeeze looked set to continue as Russia's Gazprom showed no sign of hiking exports to the region in Oct.  Coal, oil & gas prices have all rocketed higher in recent weeks hammering utilities & consumers from Beijing to Brussels, raising inflationary pressures & putting at risk a global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.  The red-hot market underscores the scale of the task facing world leaders, who are under pressure to map out plans to wean their economies off fossil fuels in preparation for COP26 summit climate talks that start next week.  Europe, which relies on Russia for 35% of its gas supplies, has seen its benchmark gas price rise more than 350% this year.  As a result, a slew of European firms that supply gas or power to households & companies have folded.  The Czech Republic's energy regulator took the exceptional step of asking suppliers to provide reassurances that they could supply energy to homes & companies, after another of the country's electricity & gas groups halted supply.  A dozen or so suppliers have already gone bust in Britian.  In Asia, power provider Ohm Energy said it had exited the retail electricity market in Singapore, the 3rd company to do so in recent weeks.  Russia says it is ready to provide more gas to Europe.  Yet Russian gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom has shown no sign of racing to book extra capacity.  Auction results yesterday showed Gazprom had booked about 1/3 of the additional gas transit capacity on offer for the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Poland for Nov & had not booked any volumes via Ukraine.  European politicians accuse Russia of using the squeeze as leverage to secure approval to start up the newly built Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, whose permits may still be months away.  Gazprom and the Kremlin say contracted commitments are being met & they have not received requests to pump more.  China, which needs coal to fire up about 60% of its power plants, has been grappling with a shortfall in supplies & surging prices for the most polluting of fossil fuels, leading to disruption in electricity supplies for factories & homes.  The constraints meant the economy grew 4.9% in Q3, its slowest pace since Q3-2020 & down from 7.9% in Q2.

Power shortage hits world's second-largest economy

Gold futures ended higher, bucking headwinds from a rise in global stocks, as a weaker $ helped prices for the precious metal score their first gain in 3 sessions.  Gold prices have recovered slowly in Oct, caught between worries about rising inflation & concerns that central banks might lift interest rates in response, along with growing anxieties about waning global economic growth.  The $ was down 0.3% as measured by the popular ICE U.S. Doll, which tracks the currency’s strength against 6 currencies.b A weaker $ makes $-priced assets comparatively less expensive for overseas buyers.  Gold futures for Dec climbed by $4 to settle at $1770 an ounce, following a 0.2% decline yesterday, its 2nd straight decline. 

Gold prices mark first gain in 3 sessions as U.S. dollar weakens

Oil futures climbed to finish at fresh multiyear highs, on reports that Russia's offer to boost natural-gas supplies to Europe may come with a catch.  Russia has indicated that it may not provide additional natural gas to European consumers amid an energy crunch in the region, unless it gets regulatory approval to start shipments thru the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.  The controversial pipeline can run natural gas from Russia into the EU, but awaits regulatory approval.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Nov rose 52¢ (0.6%) to settle at $82.96 a barrel, the highest front-month contract finish since 2014,  according to Dow Jones Market Data.  The contract expires at the end of today's trading session.  Dec WTI , the most actively traded contract, added 75¢ (0.9%) at $82.44 a barrel.  Dec Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $85.08 a barrel, up 75¢ (0.9%) to settle at the highest since 2018.  Brent prices yesterday briefly pushed above $86 a barrel to hit a 3-year intraday high, but retreated to finish slightly lower.  Brent crude climbed yesterday amid expectations supplies will remain tight.  A report on Mon said that OPEC+ countries were 115% in compliance with output cuts in Sep, showing that members are struggling to meet targets after the group agreed earlier this year to ease production restrictions in monthly increments of 400K barrels a day.

Oil futures finish at multiyear highs as Russia’s offer to boost natural-gas supplies may come with a catch

Excitement today is in the energy markets where supply is not able to keep up with growing demand.   For oil, however, OPEC+ is still cutting production.  That will not last long which will pinch current high prices.  Dow & NAZ rose in early trading & pretty much remained elevated for the rest of the day.  More earnings reports are coming which will give guidance for Q4 & 2022.

Dow Jones Industrials








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