Thursday, October 28, 2021

Markets rose despite disappointing data on GDP

Dow went up 239 (close to session high), advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 212.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 191s & the REIT index rose 4+ to the 479s.  Junk bond funds edged lower & Treasuries continued weak.  Oil was pennies lower in the 82s & gold added 3 to 1802 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil75.14
+0.11+0.2%







GC=FGold  
 1,760.60
+3.60+0.2%





 

 




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Covid-19 cases & deaths are climbing across the world for the first time in 2 months as the virus surges across Europe, World Health Organization officials said.  After weeks of decline, infections in Europe have risen over the last 3 consecutive weeks, even as cases fall in every other region across the world, according to WHO.  There were nearly 3M new Covid cases reported worldwide for the week ended Sun, an increase of 4% from the previous 7 days, according to WHO's most recent epidemiological update.  Globally, Covid cases had fallen 4% the week before, despite a 7% increase across Europe over that same period.  Cases in Europe surged by 18% over the last week alone, WHO data shows.  “The global number of reported cases and deaths from Covid-19 is now increasing for the first time in two months, driven by an ongoing rise in Europe that outweighs declines in other regions,” WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.  “It’s another reminder that the Covid-19 pandemic is far from over.”

Global Covid cases and deaths rise for the first time in two months, WHO says

Ford (F) is roaring back to life &, according to CEO Jim Farley, the automaker is "just getting started."  Shares jumped to a 7-year high after it boosted its full-year guidance & now expects to earn as much as $11.5B in profits. This followed a better-than-expected Q3 in which revenues hit $35.7B.  Ford will also resume its dividend in Q4 starting at 10¢.  Farley touted the Ford's fully networked vehicles. "We'll be moving from 1 million vehicles today to 33 million by 2028. That's scale. At the same time, we're moving aggressively to lead the electric vehicle revolution, substantially expanding our battery production," he said.  He continued: "In fact, we already announced plans that will give us enough battery production to meet our mid-decade goal of 141 gigawatts, which is enough to build more than 1 million battery electric vehicles a year, and I think we'll need more."  Farley, who took the reins in Oct of last year, has been rapidly transforming the automaker by investing in battery production, with $7B earmarked for BlueOval City in Tennessee & the BlueOval SK Battery Park in Kentucky, which will create an estimated 11K jobs.  The CEO is also transforming its most popular models to EVs, including the F-150 Lightning, an EV version of America's bestselling truck & Mustang Mach-E.  Earlier this month Ford said it delivered 157K vehicles in Sep, more than any other automaker, which was a 34.3% improvement over Aug, but down 17.7% from the same month last year.  The stock rose 1.39 (9%).
If you would like to learn more about Ford, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Ford’s stock hits 7-year high, dividend coming back

Iran will resume talks with 6 world powers before the end of Nov, its top negotiator said, seeking to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that lifted sanctions on the Islamic Republic in exchange for curbs to its nuclear program.  “Had a very serious & constructive dialogue with @enriquemora_ on the essential elements for successful negotiations. We agree to start negotiations before the end of November,” Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani wrote on Twitter following meetings with EU officials in Brussels.  But a deal is still a long way off, experts have warned, if indeed an agreement remains possible at all.  The announcement came amid mounting tensions between Iran & the West as Tehran ramps up nuclear activity in violation of the deal's parameters.  Iran's gov insists the developments are for peaceful purposes, but the UN atomic energy watchdog's Director-General Rafael Grossi said in late Oct that Iran is “within a few months” of having enough material to build a nuclear bomb.  Talks that had begun under the Biden administration were stalled following the Jun election of the hardline & anti-Western cleric Ebrahim Raisi, which some see as a delaying tactic meant to project a more staunch position.

Iran has agreed to return to nuclear talks, but no deal expected soon

The number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance fell again last week, extending a steady decline thru the fall.  Jobless claims totaled 281K last week, the Labor Dept announced.  The forecast expected claims to be unchanged at 290K.  The print marked a 4th straight decline & placed claims at a new pandemic-era low.  The previous week's count was revised to 291K from 290K.  Continuing claims - which track Americans filing for ongoing unemployment benefits - slid to 2.24M for last week, beating the estimate of 2.42M claims & also marked a new pandemic low.  Weekly claims & continuing claims have both fallen thru Oct to fresh lows, signaling the labor market's recovery has been faring better this month.  Both measures had hovered at elevated levels in Sep as hiring slowed sharply.  While claims still sit above pre-pandemic norms, the latest downtrend suggests they could near their 2020 lows by the end of the year.

US weekly jobless claims slide to new pandemic low of 281,000

Gold futures climbed to settle above the $1800 an ounce level, after data showing growth in the US economy significantly slowed in Q3.  Prices for the metal got a lift as Q3 US GDP data missed expectations, easing concerns about a quicker liftoff in US interest rates than expected.  US gross domestic product growth decelerated to an 2% annualized rate in Q3, down from a 6.7% rate in the Apr-Jun qtr, the Commerce Dept said.  Dec gold rose $3 to settle at $1802 an ounce, marking the first most-active contract finish above $1800 since Mon.  According to a report from the World Gold Council, total global gold demand posted a year-over-year decline for Q3, with investment in the precious metal down by more than 50% — led by a quarterly outflow in gold-backed exchange-traded funds.  A chunk of that decline was a result of outflows from global exchange-traded funds, which registered outflows of 26.7 metric tons, according to the report. 

Gold settles back above $1,800 as U.S. GDP disappoints

Brent oil prices fall on prospects for renewed Iran nuclear talks & natural-gas futures dropped by nearly 7%, pressured by recent reports Russian Pres Vladimir Putin ordered Gazprom to send more natural gas to Europe next month.  Oil futures, meanwhile, finished with modest gain, recouping a small portion of the more than 2% they lost yesterday, but Brent oil settled lower after Iran signaled renewed interest in talks aimed at reviving its nuclear accord.  Putin told Gazprom to ship more natural-gas westward.  In a transcript of a videoconference between Putin & Gazprom Chief Exec Alexei Miller, Russia's pres told the exec to ""start consistent and planned work on increasing the amount of gas in your underground depots in Europe" as soon as Nov 8.  Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 87B cubic feet last week.  The forecast called for an increase of 90B cubic feet.  The weekly climb came in well above the 5-year average supply build, which stands at 62 bcf & at the same time a year ago, the EIA reported a 32 bcf addition to supplies in storage.  Dec natural gas fell 42¢ (6.7%) to settle at $5.782 per M British thermal units, the lowest front-month finish in 2 weeks.  Oil prices took separate paths, with US prices recouping a small portion of what it lost a day earlier, but global prices extending their decline yesterday.  Iran has indicated it plans to resume talks on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known as the Iran nuclear deal.  The US withdrew from the JPCOA in 2018, under the Trump administration.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec rose 15¢ to settle at $82.81 a barrel.  Dec Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 26¢ to settle at $84.32 a barrel, while Jan Brent , the most actively traded contract, declined by 21¢ to $83.66 a barrel.   Data from the EIA yesterday showed that US crude inventories rose by 4.3M barrels last week, with the data helping to weaken prices for the oil during the trading session.

Natural-gas futures lose nearly 7%, but U.S. oil prices post a modest gain

Buying in the last hour took the Dow up another 100 to near record levels.  The bulls are feeling pretty gold although their is no spectacular news other than Iran talks & the whopper size bill in Congress.  However each one needs a lot more work.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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