Dow dropped 249 (session lows), decliners ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 93. The MLP index gained 1+ to the 191s & the REIT index crawled up 1 to the 448s. Junk bond funds slid lower & the market for Treasuries was closed for the holiday. Oil rose 1+, finishing above 80, & gold fell 2 to 1755 (more on both below).
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![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Crude oil has risen over 64% this year to a 7-year high topping $82 per barrel. Natural-gas prices have roughly doubled over the past 6 months to a 7-year high. Heating oil has risen 68% this year. Prices at the pump are up nearly a $ over the past 12 months to a national average just over $3 a gallon. Coal prices are at records. Higher energy prices could push up inflation in coming months, damp consumer spending on other products & services, & ultimately slow the US recovery, economists say. The higher prices are being driven by rising demand & tight supplies. As the pandemic fades & consumers around the world step up spending, factories & service providers are ramping up production, which requires energy. Oil supplies are tight because oil-exporting countries have decided to increase production in measured steps instead of opening the taps more widely. Natural-gas supplies >are running low after a freeze in Texas earlier this year drove up demand & Hurricane Ida forced nearly all of the Gulf of Mexico's gas output offline, along with higher demand from Europe where inventories have dropped because of hot weather, lackluster wind-power generation & lower imports from Russia. Coal prices have been pushed up by rising demand colliding with supply held back by carbon emission-reduction plans. Many analysts believe these factors will push prices up further in coming months. Moody's Analytics projects oil will rise to $80-90 a barrel by early next year from $81 now & natural-gas prices to $6.50-7.00 per M British thermal units, from $5.5650 Electricity prices rose 5.2% in Aug from a year earlier, the largest gain since early 2014, according to the Labor Dept. Energy prices are volatile even in normal times & particularly unpredictable now because of the cloudy economic outlook & how govs & investors will respond to the shortage of supplies. Investors are pressing companies to maintain high prices & profit margins by resisting drastically expanding production. Energy represents a sizable chunk of consumer budgets. In Aug, about 7% of consumer spending went toward energy, according to the Labor Dept. Historically, high energy prices have often preceded recessions. Consumers can’t easily cut consumption on short notice, as they can with discretionary purchases, so higher prices act as a tax, draining the money they have available to spend on other goods & services.
Soaring energy prices raise concerns about US inflation, economy
Columbus Day sales are waning in popularity among retailers & not for the reason some people may think. The decrease in Columbus Day sales is not just because of its controversial namesake, but many retailers are having to do away with large weekend-only sales events because of supply chain disruptions that have cast the future in doubt, Axios reported Sat. The Columbus Day sale is easily among the first to go amid the ongoing culture wars associated with the Italian explorer, & "Indigenous Peoples' Day sale" doesn't quite have the same ring. While some retailers are still having sales this weekend, they’re often rebranded as "fall" sales or something less controversial. The news comes amid global supply chain disruptions that have dramatically slowed down the manufacturing, processing & transportation of goods across the globe & caused prices to skyrocket. The Federal Reserve has said the price increases in the wake of COVID-19 are "transitory" & that those pressures will subside as the supply chain disruptions are resolved. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the slowdown has lasted longer than expected, he said he anticipates it will start improving next year.
Columbus Day sales ditched by retailers amid supply chain disruptions, 'Indigenous Peoples' Day' culture wars
Gold futures settled with a loss for a 3rd straight session, marking the longest period of declines for bullion in nearly a month & extending last week's slump following a weaker-than-expected Sep jobs report. Gold for Dec fell by $1 to settle at $1755 an ounce, though prices did spend some time trading higher to touch a high of $1761. The settlement for the most-active contract was the lowest since Sep 29. The drop matched the longest skid for the most-active contract since a 3-session period of declines ended Sep 17. Prices had fallen a smidgen in a choppy Fri session after data showed the US economy added just 194K jobs last month, compared with the estimate for 500K. Gold initially rallied on Fri as Treasury yields fell in the wake of the jobs report. A subsequent turnaround by yields, however, with the rate on the 10-year Treasury note reversing back above 1.6% took the wind out of the metal's sails. Higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a nonyielding asset like gold.
Gold futures end lower, match longest string of losses in over 3 weeks
US oil futures settled above $80 a barrel for the first time in almost 7 years, as a global energy crisis persisted, boosting crude demand. WTI crude for Nov rose $1.17 (1.5%) to settle at $80.52 a barrel. That was the first finish for a front-month WTI contract above $80 a barrel & highest settlement since Oct 2014. Dec Brent crude the global benchmark, added $1.26 (1.5%) to $83.65 a barrel, with prices logging the highest finish also since Oct 2018. In Sep, OPEC+ raised crude-oil output by 470K barrels per day, but many members still struggled to reach their production quotas. The 19 members with production quotas under the OPEC+ supply accord were a combined 570K barrels per day below their allocations for the month. Also, potentially contributing to the energy crunch in Asia, flooding in China led to the shutdown of dozens of coal mines, lifting prices for Chinese coal futures to record levels Mon. Soaring natural-gas prices have contributed to a European energy crisis. Gas prices pulled back from highs last week after Russian Pres Vladimir Putin said the country would honor its export commitments, but the fuel remains historically elevated. In the US Nov natural gas fell about 4% to settle at $5.345 per M British thermal units, a more than 2-week low. Prices fell 2% on Fri. Still, natural gas rose nearly 33% in Sep. Sky-high prices for the fuel are seen adding to demand for crude, with operators of gas-fired power plants, particularly in Asia, expected to switch to crude.
U.S. oil books first settlement above $80 in almost 7 years
Dow Jones Industrials
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