Monday, October 4, 2021

Markets drop ahead of data heavy week

Dow sank 322 (above early lows & barely above 34K), decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ was off 311.  The MLP index rose 4+ to the 188s & the REIT index went up 1+ to 451.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries saw more selling.  US oil prices settled at a nearly 7 year high after OPEC+ stuck to original output plan & oil advanced 1+ to the 77s,  gold finished 8 higher at 1757 (more on gold below).

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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pres Biden blamed Reps for blocking efforts to raise or suspend the US borrowing limit & avert a dangerous first-ever default on the national debt.  The pres slammed the GOP for what he described as hypocritical behavior:  Adding nearly $8T to the US debt during the Trump administration & later refusing to pay for already-approved tax cuts & spending.  Biden said that Rep leaders rejected a White House request that they forgo a filibuster & allow Dems to pass legislation to raise the ceiling with a simple majority instead with a 60-vote margin.  That plan would theoretically relieve any GOP senators from approving a ceiling increase while simultaneously allowing Dems to avoid putting a borrowing limit measure into their reconciliation bill that seeks to overhaul the US social safety net.  Reps “won’t vote to raise the debt to cover their own spending,” Biden said from the White House.  “Not only are Republicans refusing to do their job, they’re threating to use their power to prevent us from doing our job: Saving the economy from a catastrophic event.”  “I think, quite frankly, it’s hypocritical, dangerous and disgraceful,” he added.  “Just get out of the way.”  Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell's office didn't immediately respond.  However McConnell has made it clear no member of his caucus will support efforts to raise the ceiling & argues that responsibility rests with Dems, who control Congress & the White House.  He underscored that commitment in a letter sent today to Biden.

Biden pushes Congress to raise debt limit this week, urging GOP to ‘just get out of the way’

Dems have a new deadline to enact Pres Biden's economic agenda.  The party will try to pass both a bipartisan infrastructure bill & a broader investment in social programs by the end of Oct, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told his caucus today.  The party aims to approve the plans before the Oct 31 expiration of major transportation funding programs, which the infrastructure legislation would renew.  To pass what they bill as a transformative investment in the social safety net & climate policy, Dems will have to satisfy progressives who thought an initial $3.5T price tag was too small & at least one centrist who wants to spend no more than $1.5T.  Negotiations around the plan, which kicked into high gear last week, would have to yield a breakthrough in the coming days for Congress to write & pass a bill in time.  “Not every member will get everything he or she wanted,” Schumer wrote to Senate Dems.  “But at the end of the day, we will pass legislation that will dramatically improve the lives of the American people. I believe we are going to do just that in the month of October.”  He wants to reach a final deal “within a matter of days, not weeks.”  Schumer set out the new timeline after House Dems delayed a planned Thurs vote on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill.  Progressives, seeking assurances Dems will pass their larger social spending & climate proposal, withheld support for the bipartisan plan.  Biden, Schumer & House Speaker Nancy Pelosi all appear to have acknowledged neither bill will pass without the other.  They have also stressed that both wings of their party will have to yield ground to find a sweet spot between $1.5T & $3.5T. 

Schumer: Democrats aim to pass infrastructure, social spending bills by end of October

Dr Scott Gottlieb said that unlike in 2020 he fully expects families & friends to gather around the holidays this year.  He also suggested there are ways to do so that can minimize Covid risk.  “Nothing is going to stop us from getting together, and we’re going to be getting together for Thanksgiving and we’re going to be getting together for Christmas,” he said.  Gottlieb's comments came one day after White House chief medical advisor Dr Anthony Fauci said it was “just too soon to tell” whether large group gatherings for Christmas would be safe.  “We’ve just got to concentrate on continuing to get those numbers down and not try to jump ahead by weeks or months and say what we’re going to do at a particular time,” Fauci said, referring to the fact US coronavirus cases surged in recent months due to the highly transmissible delta variant.  “Let’s focus like a laser on continuing to get those cases down, and we can do it by people getting vaccinated and also, in the situation where boosters are appropriate, to get people boosted, because we know they can help greatly in diminishing infection and diminishing advanced disease,” Fauci added.  In 2020, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention advised Americans not to travel for Thanksgiving in order to reduce the risk of coronavirus spread.  A similar warning was issued then for the Dec holidays.  Gottlieb said last year his family did not hold a Thanksgiving gathering due to the pandemic.  Today, however, he suggested this fall is different with Covid vaccinations for adults widely available.  Gottlieb has also said Pfizer's (PFE) coronavirus shot could be authorized on an emergency use basis for kids 5-11 as early as Halloween.

Dr. Gottlieb says ‘nothing is going to stop’ people from gathering for holidays

Gold futures tallied a gain for a 3rd session in a row, with prices finding some support from weakness in the $ as tensions between China & Taiwan boosted safe-haven demand for the precious metal.  However, a rise in gov bond yields, which can compete against bullion for those investors seeking the perceived safety of haven assets, helped to limit gold's gains   Dec gold climbed by $9 (0.5%) to settle at $1767 an ounce, following a 0.4% weekly advance.  Still, some strategists said the rise in yields, including those adjusted for inflation, has created a headwind for gold, limiting its upside in the near term.

gold prices clinch third straight gain october

Orders for manufactured goods rose 1.2% in Aug, the Commerce Dept said.  The forecast expected a 1.1% rise.  Factory orders for Jul were revised up to a 0.7% gain from the prior estimate of a 0.4% increase.  Looking at the details, durable-goods orders rose 1.8% in Aug, unrevised from the initial estimate released last week.  Orders for nondurable goods were up 0.6% in the month.  Orders excluding transportation rose 0.5% after a 0.9% gain.  Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, viewed as a good metric of business orders, rose a revised 0.6% in Aug, up slightly from the prior estimate of a 0.5% gain.  Shipments of factory goods rose 0.1% in Aug, down sharply from a 1.5% gain & unfilled orders rose 1% after a 0.5% rise in Jul.  Inventories rose 0.6% in Aug, matching the gain in the prior month. 

U.S. factory orders jump in August

Dow had a tough day, but modest buying into the close reduced the damage while tech stocks on NAZ had no friends today.  The goings on in DC continue to be messy because every move is political & that's not good for the stock market.  Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Dow Jones Industrials








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