Friday, October 15, 2021

Markets jump as retail sales beat estimates

Dow advanced 277, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ climbed 80.  The MLP index added 1+ to 199 the REIT index rose 3 to the 465s.  Junk bond funds were off a tad & Treasuries saw heavy selling bringing higher yields.  Oil went up about 1 to the 82s (more below) & gold dropped a big 20 to 1777.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil82.33
 +1.02+1.3%







GC=FGold  
 1,773.60
-24.30+0.6%





 

 




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Consumer spending unexpectedly rose in Sep as retailers benefitted from back-to-school shopping &more workers returning to the office.  Retail sales, a measure of spending at restaurants, stores & online, last month rose 0.7% to $625B, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast was expecting a 0.2% decline.  The reading was 14.9% above a year-ago levels.  Aug's reading was revised up to a 0.9% gain from the previous print of a 0.7% increase.  Gasoline stations saw a 1.6% month-over-month increase & were 38.2% above year-ago levels.  Food services & drinking places, meanwhile, booked a 3.7% rise last month & jumped 29.5% from last year.  Retail sales excluding autos jumped 0.8% month over month compared with the 0.2% decline that was anticipated.  Ex autos, retail sales rose 2% in Aug.

Retail sales unexpectedly rise as workers return to office

The White House said it would allow intl travelers who are fully vaccinated against Covid-19 into the US. starting Nov 8, lifting a ban on visitors from the EU, UK & other countries.  The White House last month said it planned to lift the travel restrictions, which barred most non-US citizens who had recently been in Europe, Brazil, South Africa & elsewhere, in early Nov.  The rules were first set Trump administration early in the pandemic to slow the spread of Covid-19 & extended by the new Biden administration in the winter.  The Biden administration had said visitors would have to be fully vaccinated against Covid to enter.  The measure is a relief for large airlines which have struggled to return to profitability with intl travel curbed for more than 1.5 year's.

U.S. to lift travel ban on Nov. 8, allowing vaccinated international visitors into the country

Oil prices climbed, heading for gains of more than 2% for the week, on increasing signs of tight supply over the next few months as rocketing gas & coal prices stoke a switch to oil products.  US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 30¢ (0.4%) to $81.61 a barrel, adding to an 87¢ jump yesterday.  The contract was heading for a 3% gain on the week.  Brent crude futures rose 28¢ (0.3%) to $84.28 a barrel, after picking up 82¢ in the previous session, leaving the contract set for a 2.3% rise for the week.  Analysts pointed to a sharp drop in OECD oil stockpiles, to their lowest level since 2015.  Demand has picked up with recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, with a further boost coming from industry turning away from expensive gas & coal to fuel oil & diesel for power.  The Intl Energy Agency yesterday said the energy crunch is expected to boost oil demand by 500K barrels per day (bpd).  That would result in a supply gap of around 700K bpd thru the end of this year, until OPEC & allies (OPEC+) add more supply, as planned in Jan.

Oil prices rise on tight supply, set for weekly gain of more than 2%

Investors liked the retail sales reports & early Q3 earnings reports are also encouraging.  At the same time inflation continues to be a nagging problems.  Nervous investors sold gold today.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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