Dow crawled up 1, advsncers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ fell 27. The MLP index added 3 to about 191 & the REIT index was off 1+ to 451. Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were sold again, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury above 1.6% (more below). Oil rose 1+ to the 79s & gold was about even at 1759.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
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US employers hired fewer workers than expected last month as supplemental unemployment benefits expired. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 194K workers in Sep as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, the Labor Dept said. The forecast was expecting the addition of 500K new jobs & the unemployment rate to slip to 5.1%. The jobs gains in Aug were revised up to 366K from 235K. The Sep report was the first since the $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits expired on Sep 5. Economists are still assessing the impact of the Child Tax Credit, which pays families up to $3600 per child per year. Also having an impact going forward will be the mandatory vaccine requirements being enforced by a growing number of companies. Notable job gains occurred in leisure & hospitality (+74K) were led by the arts, entertainment, & recreation sector (+43K). Hiring in food services & drinking places was little changed for a 2nd straight month after averaging a monthly gain of 197K from Jan-Jul. Professional & business services (+60K), retail trade (+56K), & transportation & warehousing (+47K) also saw sizable gains. Both local gov education (-144K) & state gov education (-17K) lost jobs last month. The number workers reentering the labor force decreased by 198K last month to 2.3M. The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.6% & was 1.7 percentage points below its Feb 2020 level. The rate has been 61.4-61.7% since Jun 2020. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% in Sep & was up 4.6% year over year. The forecast expected a 0.4% monthly increase & a 4.6% year over year gain.
Jobs report wildly misses expectations
Average daily Covid cases in the US fell below 100K as the pandemic shows further signs of easing with more than 56% of the population fully immunized against the virus — a starkly different trend than the record-setting surge the country was heading toward last fall. Armed with vaccines this fall, cases have been steadily declining since the country's most recent peak of about 172K average daily infections on Sep 13, according to Johns Hopkins University. It's the first time daily cases have dropped below 100K since early Aug, the data shows, but health experts are urging caution despite the positive signs they see in the numbers. While infections this time last year were less than ½ today’s levels, they were quickly rising & eventually reached a pandemic peak after the holiday season of more than 250K per day on Jan 11. The death toll followed suit, eventually topping out at about 3400 per day in early 2021. Along with the fall in cases, there are encouraging signs in US hospitalizations & fatalities. About 69K Americans are currently in the hospital with Covid, according to the Dept of Health & Human Services, down from nearly 104K on Sep 1. The average daily death toll currently sits at about 1680 over the last week, down 18% from its recent high point of roughly 2K per day on Sep 22. Cases, deaths & hospitalizations are all currently higher than they were both one year ago & earlier in the summer before the delta variant took hold across the country. Average case counts were as low as 11K per day as recently as Jun. The major difference in 2021, of course, is the emergence of Covid vaccines. Almost 2/3 of the US population has received at least one vaccine dose & 56.2% is fully vaccinated. Still, the latest outbreak driven by the highly contagious delta variant has surged even as US officials vaccinated 216M Americans with at least one vaccine dose over the last 10 months. US officials have repeatedly said that the vast majority of those currently hospitalized & dying because of Covid are unvaccinated. Plunging temperatures thru the fall & winter could further increase the risk as people start gathering in poorly ventilated areas where Covid can rapidly spread.
Covid cases dip below 100,000 a day in U.S. as nation faces colder weather and more closed-in spaces
Treasury yields climbed in volatile trading as investors digested a disappointing jobs report. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note last traded up 6 basis points to top the 1.60% level, hitting its highest level since Jun 4. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also rose 2 basis points to 2.16%. Yields move inversely to prices. Federal Reserve officials are watching the jobs numbers closely. The central bank has indicated it will soon start rolling back on some of the monetary stimulus it provided during the pandemic crisis, primarily because inflation has met & exceeded the Fed’s 2% goal. Federal Reserve officials are watching the jobs numbers closely. Some believe that the latest jobs report doesn't change the Fed's outlook for tapering later this year.
10-year Treasury yield rises above 1.6%, shaking off weak September jobs report
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