Dow dropped 266, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ inched up pennies. The MLP index fell 1+ to the 194s & the REIT index fell 3+ ot the 473s. Junk bond funds remained a little higher & Treasuries were in heavy demand. Oil declined 2+ to the 82s & gold went up 5 to 1798 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
As Dems face a self-imposed deadline to pass a sweeping reconciliation spendning bill & a bipartisan infrastructure plan they appear in danger of doing neither – again. Pres Biden is leaving the US tomorrow for an
intl trip that will include, among other things, a climate
summit. The pres made clear he wanted have an agreement among
Dems about what the reconciliation deal will look like & to sign
the infrastructure bill, so that he can tout the climate provisions in
both. "Here's the thing: The president looked at us in the eye
and he said, ‘I need this before I go represent the United States in
Glasgow,’" Rep Ro Khanna said. "American prestige is on the line," he added. There's been nonstop talks: Sens Joe Manchin & Kyrsten
Sinema were at the White House last night, as was House
Majority Whip Jim Clyburn. The Congressional Black Caucus was
there too, where they say they had "a full dialogue" with Biden. And
Democrat leaders have projected sunny optimism – House Majority Leader
Steny Hoyer said yesterday that a deal could come in a matter of
"hours." One
did not come yesterday. And a deal appears unlikely Wed or Thurs unless Dems can suddenly overcome stumbling blocks on
policies from Medicaid expansion to immigration to a billionaires tax to
an IRS bank account reporting requirement & more.
Liberals explode in frustration over stalled reconciliation spending spree
Retailers will see eager holiday shoppers flock to stores & websites even as some toys, clothes & other gift-giving items remain stuck at congested ports, according to a new forecast that cited rising household incomes & high savings rates for its upbeat outlook. The National Retail Federation (NRF) said that it expects holiday sales during Nov & Dec to rise 8.5%-10.5%, which would total $843-$859B of sales. The sales forecast excludes spending at automobile dealers, gasoline stations & restaurants. That would mark an all-time high for holiday sales growth & top last year's record. Last year, holiday sales rose 8.2% from 2019 to $777B, according to the NRF, as consumers cheered themselves up with gift-giving during the pandemic. Holiday retail sales have increased by 4.4% on average over the past 5 years. NRF Pres & CEO Matt Shay said this year, consumers have gotten vaccinated for Covid-19, grown used to navigating life during a pandemic & had extra funds because of stimulus $ & more time at home. That's made 2021 a smoother year for retailers than 2020. He acknowledged supply chain & labor shortages, but said retailers have planned ahead to make sure they have plenty of inventory to sell & shoppers have taken cues by starting to shop in Oct. “It’s not as if there are not some headwinds and challenges and yet in spite of that, we have a great deal of confidence that consumers will continue to power the economy in this last quarter of the year,” he added. Other holiday forecasts have also predicted a significant jump in year-over-year spending. Sales in Nov & Dec are expected to grow at least 7% compared with last year, according to different forecasts from Bain, Deloitte & Mastercard SpendingPulse.
Retail trade group expects record holiday sales increase, despite congested ports
Coca-Cola (KO), a Dow sock & Dividend Aristocrat, CEO James Quincey said he expects to see sporadic shortages on grocery shelves thru 2022. Like
other food & beverage companies, KO is dealing with snarls in the
supply chain & higher commodity costs, which have resulted in some
shortages. “My analogy would be it’s a bit like an earthquake,” he said. “You get further shock waves coming through, but they tend to be of diminishing magnitude.” He
added that while shortages may persist thru next year, they will
likely decrease in significance over time as the situation improves. Quincey added the company uses its global scale & long-term partnerships to
navigate issues within its supply chain. However, it's not possible to
mitigate all challenges. He presented a 2nd analogy, comparing the
supply chain headaches to a game of Whac-a-Mole. “Some issues are ongoing and structural, and some issues appear for a quarter and disappear again,” he said. He listed issues like labor shortages, spiking
gas costs in Europe & a plastic plant in Brazil that burst into
flames. The stock rose 1.05.
If you would like to learn more about KO, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/KO?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Coca-Cola CEO expects to see sporadic product shortages through 2022
Gold futures ended higher, finding support from weakness in the $ & a retreat in Treasury yields, but prices remained below the key $1800 mark for a 2nd straight session. Dec gold rose $5 to settle at $1798 an ounce after briefly touching a high of $1800 during the session. Prices saw a 0.7% fall yesterday. Some buying was being seen in precious metals as US-China tensions were seen flaring up. China’s biggest telecom operator, China Telecom, after the Federal Communications Commission voted Mon to revoke & terminate a unit of the Chinese company, citing “significant national security and law enforcement risks.” In US economic reports, a reading of durable-goods orders for Sep fell 0.4%, less than estimates for a 1% decline. “Core” durable goods order, excluding items like aircrafts, climbed 0.8% in Sep.
Gold ends higher, but stays below the key $1,800 mark
Nov natural gas rallies to a 3-week high on contract's expiration day. Oil futures declined, with US prices pulling back from a 7-year high after US gov data showed a rise in domestic crude inventories & amid reports that Iran may soon revive talks on a nuclear deal. West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec delivery fell $1.99 (2.4%) to settle at $82.66 a barrel after ending yesterday at another 7-year high. Dec Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost $1.82 (2.1%) at $84.58 a barrel after closing yesterday at a 3-year high. Jan Brent, the most actively traded contract, fell $1.78 (2.1%) at $83.87 a barrel. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose by 4.3M barrels last week. The forecast expected a 100K-barrel decline, but the American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.3M, according to sources. However, the EIA data also revealed that crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for Nymex futures, fell by 3.9M barrels for the week. Speculation over renewed talks surrounding a nuclear deal with Iran weighed on prices. Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri, said that Iran will return to nuclear discussions before the end of Nov. Talks between the country & world powers to restore the 2015 nuclear deal had been suspended in Jun. Natural-gas futures finished higher amid the expiration of the Nov contract at the end of the session & some forecasts calling for colder weather. Prices briefly moved lower following news reports that Russian Pres Vladimir Putin ordered Gazprom to send more natural gas to Europe next month. Nov natural gas rose 5.4% to $6.202 per M British thermal units after touching a low at $5.77. Front-month prices finished at their highest in just over 3 weeks. The Dec natural-gas contract, which became the front month at the end of the session, tacked on almost 3.3% to $6.198 per M Btus.
Oil prices end lower on rise in U.S. crude supplies, potential talks on Iran nuclear deal
Reports about restarting nuclear talks with Iran shook the market. The Dow dropped 200 in the last 90 mins of trading. Meanwhile other dreary stores, starting with inflation & higher interest rates, have not gone away. The Dow is down about 200 so far this week.
Dow Jones Industrials
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