Monday, October 25, 2021

Markets edge higher ahead of more earnings reports

Dow went up 54, advancers over decliners around 2-1 & NAZ gained 77.  The MLP index was about even, fluctuating around 198, & the REIT index was steady in the 474s,  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were purchased, reducing yields on Treasuries.  Oil rose to the 84s & gold advanced 12 to 1808.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil85.08
+1.32+1.6%
























GC=FGold   1,807.30 
+11.00 +0.6%




















 

 




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Dems are scrambling to reach a deal on their massive reconciliation bill this week so that progressives will stop their blockade of the infrastructure bill that's stalled in the House before pres Biden leaves the for a climate summit.on Thurs to meet with Pope Francis & attend a G20 summit.  But for Dems who want the US to be a leader on climate issues globally, the more meaningful part of his intl trip will happen Mon when he goes to Scotland for a 2-day climate forum.  "Here's the thing: The president looked at us in the eye and he said, ‘I need this before I go represent the United States in Glasgow,’" Rep Ro Khanna said yesterday.  "American prestige is on the line," he added.  Yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer & Sen Joe Manchin visited Biden for yet more talks on the reconciliation bill.  It was reported that Manchin could support the White House's extremely complex.  Progressives argue that the reconciliation bill is more important because it's expected to include much more money on climate issues, in addition to massive spending on social programs.  Therefore, they've demanded that a reconciliation bill pass before they will consider the infrastructure bill.  It was reported that Manchin could support the White House's extremely complex wealth tax in the reconciliation bill.  But there are still plenty of outstanding issues that Dems will need to agree on, from child care to tax credits to the specifics of climate provisions.  It's Khanna & his Congressional Progressive Caucus who blocked the bipartisan infrastructure bill – which does include some climate provisions – from passing for the past 2 months over those disagreements.

Dems scrambling for reconciliation deal, seek to get infrastructure to Biden

The US federal budget deficit totaled $2.8T during the 2021 fiscal year, marking the 2nd-highest budgetary shortfall on record, but a slight improvement from the previous year as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Treasury Dept said.  The annual deficit was $360B lower than last year, in what the Biden administration said reflected an "improved economy due in part to the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARP) and COVID-19 vaccination rollout."  The budget year ended on Sep 30.  "Today’s joint budget statement is further evidence that America’s economy is in the midst of a recovery," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.  The deficit surged to a record $3.1T in fiscal 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic brought the economy to a virtual standstill & forced nationwide lockdowns. The previous record was a $1.4T deficit following the 2008 financial crisis.  The gov generated $4T in tax revenue, more than $465B than projected.  Officials said the increase was partially attributable to higher-than-expected collections from individual & corp income taxes.  Gov revenue surged 18.3%.

Federal budget deficit skyrockets to second-largest figure in US history

The state of California released a jobs report showing the highest unemployment rate in the nation.  California alone represents 1/3 of the overall unemployed in the nation.  The California Employment Development Dept Sep jobs report showed that the state gained 47K jobs since Aug but holds an unemployment rate of 7.5% which ties Nevada for the highest in the US.  Additionally, unemployment claims rose to 81K last week which amounted to 1/3 of the total claims in the country.  The state's Dem Gov Gavin Newsom painted an optimistic picture of the report blaming the coronavirus pandemic for the slow growth but claiming that the state is "averaging record job creation."  "Our economic recovery continues to make promising progress, with 812,000 new jobs this year and regaining over 63 percent of those jobs we lost to the pandemic," Newsom said.  "As we continue averaging record job creation, our work is more important than ever to get more Californians back on the job & support those hardest hit by the pandemic."  "Within the past eight months, California has created 812,000 new jobs, more than any other state," Newsom added.  "That averages out to approximately 101,500 per month."

California jobs report is anything but golden

Traders are undecided about what to do next.  The infrastructure package in Congress remains in limbo although there have been leaks that the gross number (should be VERY GROSS) has been reduced by $1T (whatever that means).  If passed this will be record spending by a long shot even though nobody knows what is going on!!  On top of that they are in a rush, which spells sloppy, to pass it,.  Stocks this week will react to whatever comes out from Congress & earnings reports.  Gold keeps getting attention from nervous investors.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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