Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Markets continue climbing on strong earnings

Dow gained 129 to another record, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ  went up 122 (near record highs).  The MLP index was flattish in the 198s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 477s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries saw a little selling.  Oil went up to the 84s & gold dropped 19 to 1786 as stocks were being purchased.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil83.99
 +0.23+0.3%













GC=FGold  
1,787.40
 -19.40-1.1%















 

 




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Moderate Dem Sen Joe Manchin indicated that he would support tax proposals targeting billionaires amid ongoing negotiations within the party toward an agreement on Pres Biden's sweeping social spending bill.  "I'm open to any type of thing that makes people pay that's not paying now, so people that don't report income like you and I do, earned income," Manchin told reporters.  "There has to be a way for them to pay their fair share."  Pres Biden & his Dem allies have argued that increased taxes on the wealthiest Americans will cover the costs of his social spending bill, which is expected to be roughly $2T.  But some moderates, including Sen Kyrsten Sinema, have pushed back against the possibility of corp tax hikes.

Manchin open to billionaires tax to fund Biden social spending bill

Home prices rose 19.8% year over year in Aug, matching the record pace from Jul, according to the national Case-Shiller index.  Prices are now 45.5% above their 2006 peak.  "The slowing acceleration in home prices suggests that buyer fatigue is setting in, particularly among higher-priced homes where the acceleration in price growth from the previous month has been larger compared to low tier homes," said CoreLogic deputy chief economist Selma Hepp.  The 10-City Composite index saw price gains slow to 18.6% in Aug from 19.2% in the previous month.  Prices in the 20-City Composite jumped 19.7% annually, below the 20% gain in Jul.  "Price gains were once again broadly distributed, as all 20 cities rose, although in most cases at a slower rate than had been the case a month ago," said Craig Lazzara, managing director & global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.  Just 8 of the cities in the 20-city index reported stronger month-over-month price growth in Aug than in Jul.  Prices rose by a double-digit pace across all regions, but were strongest in the Southwest (+24.1%).  Separately, new home sales rose for a 5th straight month in Sep, surging 14% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800K, according to the Census Bureau & the Dept of Housing & Urban Development.  Sales were 17.6% below the Sep 2020 estimate of 971K.  The forecast anticipated 760K new homes sold, higher than Aug's downwardly revised rate of 702K.

Home prices climb by most on record, show signs of slowing

Treasury yields were little changed, stabilizing after a volatile session on yesterday.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 1.634% & the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell more than a basis point to 2.069%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  The 10-year rate traded as high as 1.673% earlier during yesterday's session but fell back to hover above 1.63%.  US stock markets closed the previous session at record highs, amid strong company earnings reports.  However, concerns about a combination of rising inflation & slowing economic growth, also known as “stagflation,” continue to plague investor sentiment.  The moves in yields come as investors prepare for the next move from the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to begin slowing its asset purchases later this year.  The central bankers are scheduled to meet next week to discuss policy changes.

Treasury yields hold steady after Monday’s decline

The bulls are in command after last week's sluggish market.   However, the Dow chart below shows the advance this month is about 2K with only 1 limited interruption.  That spells an over bought market

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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