Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Dow inches over 13,000 on mixed economic data

Dow rose 26, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 9.  The Financial Index gained a fraction to 199.66, a new 7 month high.  

The MLP index fell 1+ to the 408s & the REIT index was off a fraction to the 245s (still near its interim highs).  Junk bond funds & Treasuries edged higher.  Oil & gold were flattish on the mixed economic news.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.102%

U.S. 2-year

0.281%

U.S. 10-year

1.903%

CLJ12.NYM...Crude Oil Apr 12...108.22 ...Down 0.34  (0.3%)

GCH12.CMX...Gold Mar 12...1,778.40...Up 4.80  (0.3%)


  • 787 Dreamliners, including an airplane for Air India (R), are seen on the production line at the Boeing Commercial Airplane manufacturing facility in Everett, Washington February 14, 2011.  REUTERS/Anthony Bolante
Photo:   Yahoo

New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell in Jan by the most in 3 years as demand slumped across the board, suggesting the economy started the year on weaker footing than expected.  Durable goods orders dropped 4%, the biggest decline since Jan 2009 when the country was still mired in a deep recession, according to Commerce Dept.  Orders for durables excluding transportation equipment decreased 3.2%, the most since Oct 2010, following g a 2.1% rise.   Data on durable goods can be volatile, & the Jan weakness followed strong gains in Dec & Nov.  Still, the forecast had been for orders to fall just 1.0%.  A slew of economic data had recently eased fears economic growth could slow sharply in Q1.  Other gauges for manufacturing have been more solid & the unemployment rate sank to a 3-year low last month.  Weak orders could add to concerns about the many threats faced by the US economic recovery, aggravated by rising gas prices. 


  • A real estate for sale sign is displayed outside a home in Chandler Heights, Arizona June 2, 2011. REUTERS/Joshua Lott
Photo:   Yahoo

Single-family home prices ended 2011 on a downbeat note as a drop in Dec prices sent the index to its lowest level since 2003.  The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.5%, in line with expectations, after falling 0.7% in Nov.  The 20-city index fell to 136.63, the lowest level since Jan 2003.  "After a prior three years of accelerated decline, the past two years has been a story of a housing market that is bottoming out but has not yet stabilized. Up until today's report we had believed the crisis lows for the composites were behind us," David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, said.  "The pick-up in the economy has simply not been strong enough to keep home prices stabilized. If anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012."  Prices in the 20 cities dropped 4.0% year over year, more than than the forecasts of a 3.6% decline.  For Q4, the national index fell 1.7%.  Part of the decline might have to do with foreclosed properties being sold at distress prices.  This data is not helpful  to the economy.

U.S. Home Prices Decline 4%, More Than Forecast


  • A shopper looks at a map while leaning against a store window in New York November 22, 2011. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi
Photo:   Yahoo

Consumer confidence scaled a one-year high in Feb as optimism about the labor market offset concerns over rising gas pricesThe Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes increased to 70.8 this month, the highest since last Feb, from an upwardly revised 61.5 in Jan.  The forecast had been for a rise to 63.0 from a previously reported reading of 61.1 in Jan.  "Consumers are considerably less pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions than they were in January," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said.  "And, despite further increases in gas prices, they are more optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy, job prospects and their financial situation."  Gas prices have risen 12% (42¢) since the start of the year & averaged $3.78 a gallon in the week thru yesterday.  Rising gas prices will be factored into the next round of reports on consumer confidence.


Markets are not sure where to go on blurry news.  The US economic data was less favorable than it has been recently.  The € is up to $1.34½, a 3 month high, on a lack of bad news from Europe.  Rising gas prices is getting scary.  There is talk about releasing the oil the gov is holding for emergencies to bring down prices.  However, defining the current situation as an emergency is not clear.  It looks like stocks will continue to wander with a slight upward bias, awaiting new developments.

Dow Industrials


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