Thursday, February 2, 2012

Markets edge higher ahead of the jobs report

Dow was up 3, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 15.  The Financial Index rose 1½ to 194, a new high since late Jul.

The MLP & REIT indices were flattish while junk bond funds inched higher.  Treasuries were little changed with the yield on the 10 year bond only slightly above its recent record lows.  Oil has been slipping this year but gold remains strong.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.061%

U.S. 2-year

0.222%

U.S. 10-year

1.839%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...96.68 ....Down 0.93  (1.0%)

GCG12.CMX...Gold Feb 12......1,754.00 ...Up 6.90  (0.4%)




Get the latest daily market update below:



  • Job seekers stand in line to speak with an employer at a job fair in San Francisco, November 9, 2011. REUTERS/Robert Galbraith
Photo:   Yahoo

New claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week.  Claims dropped 12K to 367K according to the Labor Dept as job growth has gained momentum in recent months.  Expectations were for claims to fall to 375K.  They have been below 400K for 8 of the last 10 weeks, holding under a level associated with labor market healing.  The 4 week moving average fell 2K to 375K.  The number still receiving benefits under regular state programs fell 130K to 3.4M, the lowest since Sep 2008 (Lehman collapse) & the number on emergency unemployment benefits rose 100K to 3M.  A total of 7.7M were claiming unemployment benefits, little changed from the prior week.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell Last Week


ECB May Hold Out on Greek Debt Swap Until Investor Deal

Photo:   Bloomberg

The ECB is likely to refuse to show its hand on how it will help cut Greece’s debt burden until investors & the gov have agreed to a deal.  While Greece’s creditors are increasing pressure on the ECB to join the talks, central bankers have remained silent.  The ECB wants to see the private-sector agreement concluded before indicating its strategy, which may include forgoing profits from its Greek bonds or a transfer to one of the region’s rescue funds.  At a summit this week, ECB President Draghi rejected the idea of transferring back profits from bond holdings to the Greek gov.  The ECB has purchased €219B of debt-strapped nations’ bonds since 2010.  It is believed between €36-55B are invested in Greek sovereign debt.  When the ECB started buying bonds, Greek 10-year bonds traded at 84¢ on the €.  Since then, prices have dropped to 23¢ on investor concerns that the country is close to default.  The ECB is “not party” to ongoing discussions between the Greek gov & the private sector, Draghi said (whatever that means).  Wheels keep spinning.while the clock is ticking.


Merck Profit Beats Analyst Estimates

Photo:  Bloomberg

Merck, a Dow stock swung to a Q4 profit because of lower acquisition & restructuring charges along with slightly higher sales.  The company forecast little improvement this year, when its top-selling drug, Singulair, loses patent protection.  MRK said there is also increased pressure for lower drug prices in some key emerging markets as well as Europe & a shift to unfavorable exchange rates that will hurt revenue.  Q4 EPS was 49¢ versus a loss of 17¢ in the prior year.  Adjusted EPS of 97¢ beat the prior year's 88¢ & topped expectations for 95¢.  Revenue rose 1.6% $12.3B, short of expectations for $12.5B.  "We had a good quarter and a strong overall year," CEO Frazier said. "We are committed to strong operational growth despite challenges such as the Singulair patent expiration."  He said MRK has some newly approved drugs launching in various countries, got approval in Q4 to market 2 drugs to additional patient groups & plans during 2012-2013 to apply for approval of 5 major products.  The company forecast 2012 EPS of $3.75-$3.85, excluding charges.  Analysts expect $3.83.  Including charges, MRK expects EPS of $2.04-$2.30.  The company said it expects revenue at or near 2011's total, just $48B.  The stock fell 58¢.

Merck Beats Estimates on Diabetes Drug Sales

Merck & Company, Inc. (MRK)


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Markets are back to stumbling around ahead of the big jobs report tomorrow.  Earnings continue to get a mixed reception, Greece is still trying to come up with bailout II & Congress has not approved the tax cuts which everybody agrees are needed.  The MLP index is doing quite well, just below its recent record highs above 400.  Buying in MLPs is helped by the publicity of more investment in shale oil & natural gas along with their relatively low yields (pretty much the most attractive today).  Dow is holding near its highs made last week.

Dow Industrials


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