Monday, February 6, 2012

Markets drift lower as traders watch Europe

Dow was under water all day but losses narrowed in the PM.  Dow finished down 17, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ fell 3.  Bank stocks were lower on worries about the Greek debt situation.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value197.40One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -0.96     (-0.5%)

The MLP index was up a fraction while the REIT Index fell more than 1, from its yearly high, to under 251.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries sold off, bringing the yield on the 10 year up to 1.9%.  Oil was lower, following the lead of stocks, although Mideast tensions could see it spike up soon.  Gold ended lower, pressured by a rising dollar & moving alongside oil.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.066%

U.S. 2-year

0.230%

U.S. 10-year

1.898%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...97.00 .....Down 0.84 (0.9%)

GCG12.CMX...Gold Feb 12......1,721.60 ...Down 16.30  (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The coalition gov in Greece caved in to demands to cut civil service jobs, announcing 15K positions would go this year, amid mounting pressure to agree on austerity measures.  The announcement signals a shift in Greece's policy, state jobs have far been protected so far.  A gov spokesman said the job cuts would be carried out under a new law that allows such layoffs.  In response, unions have called a 24-hour general strike Tues after 4K protesters joined protest rallies today.  Besides austerity measures, the bailout also depends on separate talks with banks & other private bondholders to forgive €100B ($131.6B) in Greek debt.  Greek gov officials say they expect private investors to take an overall cut of up to 70% on their bonds.  What else can they say?   The leaders have already agreed to cut 2012 spending by 1.5% of GDP, improve competitiveness by slashing wages & non-wage costs, & re-capitalize banks without nationalizing them.  Creditors are also demanding more spending cuts.  The gov has already promised to reduce the 750K strong broader public sector by 20% by year end, but has so far insisted it could reach that target thru staff attrition.  Can you spell "looming bankruptcy?"

Greece caves in on civil service firings A


Also on the intl front, the president ordered a freeze on all Iranian gov & financial institutions’ assets that are under US jurisdiction. The president cited “deceptive practices” of the Iranian central bank in hiding transactions of sanctioned parties & its failure to prevent money laundering, concluding that Iran activities pose an “unacceptable risk” to the intl financial system.  The executive order follows comments by US officials who have expressed concern that Israel may attack if intl sanctions fail to stop Iran’s pursuit of nuclear-weapons capability.  The order blocks all property & interests in property belonging to the Iranian gov, its central bank, & all Iranian financial institutions, even those that haven’t been designated for sanctions by the Treasury Department.  Iran has to be watched closely because it's a wildcard that can cause major financial problems. 

Obama Freezes Iranian Government Assets


  • Customers rent DVD movies from a redbox video kiosk in Burbank, California,  May 8, 2011.  REUTERS/Fred Prouser
Photo:   Yahoo

Verizon (VZ), a Dow stock, & Coinstar's Redbox (CSTR) unit have formed a video joint venture to provide services aimed at competing against Netflix (NFLX).  This will combine the Redbox DVD rental kiosk business with an internet video offering from VZ & mark VZ's first foray into video streaming outside of its network operating region as the telephone company.  However, the venture's success will depend largely on the price of the service & the depth of content it has available.  VZ has agreed to make video content available for the streaming service.  The venture, 65% owned by VZ & 35% by CSTR, will offer its first products in H2.  VZ was up 30¢ & CSTR gained 90¢.

Verizon Forms Venture With Coinstar’s Redbox to Challenge Netflix in Video

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)


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Coinstar, Inc. (CSTR)


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There is a growing feeling the the Greek debt mess will evolve into a full bankruptcy.  There are just too many headwinds & no solutions which make everybody happy.  Nobody knows how a bankriptcy will play out, it's never happened before.  Then there's the question about the € if Greece leaves (is kicked out).  DC is not getting a lot of attention, but only 3 weeks left to extend tax cuts which seems impossible with the gridlock.  But markets are taking everything in stride with Dow near its highest levels since mid 2008.

Dow Industrials


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