Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Rising markets on hopes for Greek bailout

Dow jumped 127, advancers ahead of decliners 6-1 & NAZ added 24.  The Financial Index rose to a new 6 month high.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 192.74 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    3.55    (1.8%)

The MLP & REIT indices were each up in this strong market.  Junk bond funds were higher while Treasuries slipped.  Oil is heading back for $100 & gold is doing well as it did in Jan.

Alerian MLP Index

Value 396.96 One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   1.79   (0.4%)

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.061%

U.S. 2-year

0.223%

U.S. 10-year

1.832%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...99.01 ...Up 0.53  (0.5%)

GCG12.CMX...Gold Feb 12.....1,746.60 ...Up 8.80  (0.5%)





Get the latest daily market update below:



Greek Bondholders Said Set to Get GDP Sweetener in Debt Swap

Photo:   Bloomberg

Greece & the IMF said that negotiations for debt deals will be concluded in a "matter of days," raising hopes that the country will dodge a disastrous default.  Greece is locked in 2 sets of talks, one with private creditors to have them take losses on bondholdings & the other with its intl bailout rescuers to receive new loans.  "We are at a crucial point in developments. In the coming days, the agreements must be completed" for the bond swap & a 2nd €130B ($171B) bailout package, a Greek gov spokesman said.  Debt inspectors are in Athens for talks on the 2nd rescue package, which is tied to an agreement with private creditors to accept losses on Greek bonds they hold.  The bond swap will see private creditors swap the bonds they hold with new ones worth half their original face value, longer repayment times & lower interest rates.  They will also get a €30B cash sweetener, to be taken from the €130B bailout, for accepting the deal.  Once secured, the Greece's national debt will cut €100B.  Overall, the investors participating in the deal will face a loss of more than 70%.  This is called throwing money at the problem & hoping for the best.

Greek Bondholders Said to Get GDP Sweetener


ADP Says U.S. Companies Added 170,000 Workers in January

Photo:   Bloomberg

Companies added 170K workers in Jan, reflecting job gains in services & at small businesses, according to ADP Employer Services.  The increase was less than forecast & followed a revised 292K rise in the prior month (smaller than previously reported).  The slowdown in hiring from the prior month may be explained by the effect.  Workers, regardless of when they are dismissed or quit, sometimes remain on company records until Dec, when businesses update, or purge, their figures with ADP.  The big jobs report from the Labor Dept report in 2 days may show payrolls last month rose 145K & unemployment held at 8.5%.

U.S. Companies Added 170,000 Workers: ADP


Construction Spending in U.S. Climbs by Most in Four Months

Photo:   Bloomberg

Builders increased spending in Dec, ending a weak construction year on a hopeful note. Spending on construction projects rose 1.5% in Dec after a revised 0.4% gain in Nov according to the Commerce Dept.  That pushed spending to an annual rate of $816B, the highest level in 20 months. The gains coincide with other signs that show the troubled housing industry may be improving.  Homebuilders are more confident after seeing more interest from would-be buyers.  Still, spending on all construction projects for 2011 was just $787B, 2% lower than the previous year & roughly half the level in a healthy economy.  Residential construction rose 0.8% on the strength of single-family homes.  Nonresidential building jumped 3.3%, led by factory construction.  Gov spending rose 0.5%.  Builders broke ground on more homes in each of the last 3 months of last year.  Still, residential construction fell at an annual rate of 1.4% last year, the 6th straight year of decline.  Housing numbers remain dreary.



Markets are starting the new month with a big gain as they have in prior months.  The € is $1.32, up a nickel from the lows last month when European debt worries were higher.  The domestic data was good, but short of great.  Jobs data is always a little fuzzy when seasonal adjustments are being made.  There is an abundance of hype about the IPO for Facebook which reminds many of the heights markets went to in 2000 followed the ugly sell-off afterwards.  Dow is looking pretty good as it attempts to break thru the important 12.8K ceiling.  If a Greek bailout is finalized, look for the bulls to return in force. However in less than a month a divided Congress must decide about extending tax cuts, etc.

Dow Industrials


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