Thursday, February 2, 2012

Markets meander on uneven earnings

Dow slipped 11, advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ was up 11 on a lackluster day.  Bank stocks had a good day ahead of tomorrow's jobs report.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value193.19One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.88   (0.5%)

The  indices for MLPs & REITs hardly budged.  Junk bond funds & Treasuriies also traded sideways.  Oil fell to a 6-week low as US supplies climbed & fuel demand tumbled.  Gold rose to a 2-month high after the Federal Reserve said it sees signs the US economy is improving, boosting prospects for commodity demand.

Alerian MLP Index


Value397.89One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   -0.62    (-0.2%)




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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.221%

U.S. 10-year

1.821%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...96.51 ...Down 1.10  (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Fixed mortgage rates stay flat, just above lows

Photo:    Yahoo

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage fell to a record low, the 9th time in the last year.  But the housing market remains depressed.  Freddie Mac said the rate on the 30-year loan dropped to 3.87%, below the previous record of 3.88% hit 2 weeks ago.  The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.14%, also a record low.  Records for mortgage rates date back to the 1950s.  Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which is currently below 1.9%.  The average rate on the 30-year loan has hovered near 4% for more than 3 months.  Yet few can afford to buy a home or qualify for a loan.  Those who can have already done so.  High unemployment & scant wage gains have made it harder to qualify for loans.  Many don't want to sink money into a home that they fear could lose value over the next few years.

Mortgage Rates for 30-Year Fixed U.S. Loans Decline to Record-Low 3.87%


U.S. Auto Sales Surge to Highest Levels Since Recession

Photo:    Bloomberg

More new cars & trucks were sold in Jan at the fastest pace since the 2009 "cash for clunkers" program without resorting to discounts.  Light-vehicle sales accelerated to a 14.2M annualized rate in Jan, the highest since the Aug 2009 gov trade-in program.  Honda Motor (HMC) reported its first increase since its inventory plunged after Japan's tsunami last year.  General Motors (GM) remained the sales leader even as its market share dropped by 3.4 percentage points, followed by Ford (F) & Toyota (TM).  GM was the only major automaker reporting a sales decline in Jan.  The light-vehicle sales rate exceeded the 13.4M pace that was the average estimate.  Aside from Aug 2009, the US monthly sales rate last topped 14M in May 2008.  Automakers lowered spending on incentives by 5.6%.  With the average age of cars & trucks rising to a record 10.8 years, pent-up demand is seen as boosting sales to a 3rd-straight annual gain in 2012, the longest streak since sales peaked in 2000. 

U.S. Auto Sales Highest Since Recession While Discounts Get Smaller: Cars


Dow Chemical  posted an EPS loss of 2¢ in Q4 as a one-time charge resulted in higher taxes at its Brazilian operations.  Excluding charges,  Dow had EPS of 25¢, short of expectations.  Price hikes helped revenue increase 2% to $14.1B.  But overall volume was down 3%, or flat excluding businesses that Dow sold off.  Demand slipped as customers in North America, Europe & other regions worked through existing inventory instead of replenishing their stockpiles.  Volumes declined in Western Europe & the US which account for 70% of the sales.  That was offset by stronger sales in China, the Asia Pacific region & Latin America.  CEO Liveris said they saw global economic "deterioration" in the period, with "considerable weakness" in Western Europe &  Europe accounts for a quarter of the company's sales.  The Q4 loss compares with a year-ago EPS of 37¢.  For the year, EPS was $2.05, up 22% from its 2010's $1.72.  Revenue rose 12% to $59.99B.  Dow said that while it expects its business to strengthen in the US, it's less optimistic about conditions in Europe.  Higher volumes in North America, China & the Asia Pacific region should make up for the weakness in Europe.  "We do not anticipate material improvements in market conditions for the first quarter of the year, but do project economic recovery will gain momentum as we move through the second quarter and the remainder of the year," Liveris said.  The stock fell 40¢.

Dow Chemical posts 4Q loss on chargeAP

Dow Chemical Company (The) (DOW)


stock chart


There was not a lot going today in the markets, typical on the Thurs prior to a jobs report.  The Greek debt deal was supposed to be done soon, or at least that's what they said a few weeks ago.  Don't expect much until a day or so before the Mar deadline.  The US economy is doing well, to a degree, but we keep getting more ugly news about Europe slowing down in a meaningful way   Collectively, that's a big market.  Then there's divided DC which is supposed to be making decisions that will affect the economy.  But Dow keeps charging ahead, up more than 20% from its lows 4 months ago.

Dow Industrials


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