Monday, February 27, 2012

Lower markets on lack of G-20 support for the European debt mess

Down fell 14 (but is off the lows at the opening), decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ slipped 2.  The Financial Index was down a fraction to 197

The MLP index fell 1 from its record to the 410s & the REIT index was off 1 to 245 (still near its 2011 highs).  Junk bond funds continued their rise & Treasuries gained.  Oil fell for the first time in 8 days after the Group of 20 nations rebuffed calls from euro countries to increase lending resources, adding to concern that Europe’s debt crisis will slow the economy.  Gold was little changed

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.285%

U.S. 10-year

1.929%

CLJ12.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 12...108.87 .....Down 0.90  (0.8%)

GCG12.CMX...Gold Feb 12.......1,773.80 ......Down 1.30  (0.1%)


Angela Merkel

Photo:   Bloomberg

The G-20 nations are set to condition additional funding for the IMF on the EU first increasing its financial stabilization funds to ease concerns about debt risks in euro zone countries.  The will require the EU to add about €500B ($675B) in potential firewall funds before the rest of world considered contributing to the stabilization effort.  The IMF wants the firewall funds to be enough to calm market concerns & should be available to countries before they fully carry out promised fiscal reforms.  While the US, Brazil & the OECD have already publicly urged an increase, there is consensus that the EU must act was much broader, including with big potential lender countries like China & Japan.  The IMF should play a back-up role, but the EU's own fund must be the first line of defense. Germany's reluctance to further fund EU stabilization funds may be the sticking point, largely because the issue is a sensitive one in German domestic politics.  Other European nations support increasing firewall funds & even German officials appeared to recognize that would eventually be necessary.  Who's in charge?  I have no idea!

G-20 Rebuffs Europe’s Call for Help


  • <p>               This Jan. 20, 2012 photo shows a home with a sale pending sign, in Mount Lebanon, Pa. The number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes rose in January to the highest level in nearly two years, supporting the view that the housing market is gradually coming back. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Photo:   Yahoo

The number of contracts signed to buy homes rose in Jan to the highest level in nearly 2 years, supporting the view that the housing market is gradually coming back.  The National Association of Realtors index of sales agreements rose 2% last month to 97, the highest reading since Apr 2010 (the last month that buyers could qualify for a federal home-buying tax credit).  A reading of 100 is considered healthy.  The data for 2011 was revised & lowered the Nov initial 19-month high of 100.1 to 96.9. But contracts have been markedly up since the summer when some feared a 2nd recession loomed.  But a sale isn't final until a mortgage is closed & a third of realtors complain that they've had at least one contract scuttled in Oct-Jan.  That's up from 18% in Sep.  Nonetheless, the gain in signed contracts supports other evidence of improvement in the housing market & builders are growing more optimistic after seeing more people express interest in buying this year.  Sales of previously occupied homes are at their highest level since May 2010.  More first-time buyers are making purchases.  And the supply of homes fell last month to its lowest point in nearly 7 years.  Much of the optimism has come because hiring has picked up, more jobs are critical to a housing rebound.


  • Gas
Photo:   Yahoo

Gas prices are climbing to levels at which Americans will reduce gas consumption & demand that politicos do something.  Talk is cheap, so there are plenty of ideas from the Reps while the Administration is trying to preempt criticism, saying that there's "no silver bullet" to knock gas prices back down to $2 a gallon.  Gas prices are rising, in part, because oil prices are rising & oil prices are rising because of steady changes in supply & demand.  With the growth of China, India & other developing markets, demand for oil is outstripping new supply.  Therefore prices go up.  New supply will help, but it's highly unlikely that it'll take gas prices back down to levels everybody remembers.  It may be that $75-$80 (compared to $20) is becoming the new "norm" for oil.  Price at the pump was $3.70 yesterday & $4 may be not too far away, a major damper for any recovery.   

Gas Prices Soar: What Should Be Done Daily Ticker


Stocks reacted badly to the lack of support on European bailouts from G-20, but buyers returned to limit losses.  Treasuries & the high yielding sectors remain in demand.  Dow is strong (major selling has not taken hold) while economic news has been on the dreary side but the chart also shows its advance has been limited in Feb.  It may need chance to pause & reflect on the 5 month gain of 2400. The spectacular rise of gas this year would give it a good excuse to sell off.

Dow Industrials



stock chart

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