Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Markets rally on factory data and Greek bailolut hopes

Dow started strong & remained higher all day, although there was selling into the close.  Dow rose 83 (68 below the high), advancers ahead  of decliners almost 5-1 & NAZ was up 34.  The Financial Index also saw selling in the last hour. 

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value192.12One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   2.93    (1.6%)

The MLP index jumped 3+ to the 398s, near its record above 400, & the REIT index rose 2 to 248, close to its yearly highs.  Junk bond funds were strong but Treasuries sold off in the market rally.  Oil declined after an Energy Dept report showed that inventories climbed more than expected & gasoline demand tumbled to a 10-year low.  Gold gained 7 & is having another good year.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.056%

U.S. 2-year

0.219%

U.S. 10-year

1.844%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...97.64...Down 0.84  (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




  • <p>               This Jan. 31, 2012 photo, shows a 2012 Chrysler 200 Convertible on the showroom floor of Goss Dodge Chrysler in South Burlington, Vt. Chrysler said Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2012, its January sales in the U.S. rose 44 percent over a year ago on gains from its Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram brands. (AP Photo/Toby Talbot)
Photo:   Yahoo

Auto sales are off to a strong start, continuing their brisk pace from late 2011.  Chrysler had its best Jan in 4 years while Toyota (TM) got a boost from its new Camry.  Volkswagen reported much higher sales.  However, General Motors (GM)  sales fell compared to a strong Jan last year.  When final figures are released, industrywide sales are expected to rise 7% to more than 870K, kicking off what should be the strongest year for the industry since the recession.  The Jan sales pace is expected to be similar to Dec, a relief after a bumpy 2011.  Sales started at a healthy pace last year but plummeted after the Japanese earthquakes affected vehicle supplies.  The pace of sales didn't really recover until the last 4 months.  For 2012, auto sales could reach close to 14M, up from 12.8M in 2011.  While the forecast is below the 2000 peak of 17.3M, it's better than the 10.4M trough in 2009.

US auto sales rise in January, led by Chrysler, VW AP


ISM Index of U.S. Manufacturing Increased to 54.1

Photo:  Bloomberg

US manufacturing grew in Jan at the fastest pace in 7 months.  The Institute for Supply Management index climbed to 54.1, from 53.1 in Dec (figures greater than 50 signal expansion).  Production, led by inventory rebuilding at the end of 2011, is poised to keep expanding in the US as the need to update equipment drives orders & demand for cars rises.  Factory indices in China improved last month, as it withstood weak exports from Europe’s crisis.  German output grew for the first time since Sep & in the UK, manufacturing returned to growth in Jan after shrinking in the previous 3 months.  Across the euro region, manufacturing contracted less than initially estimated as a gauge based on a survey of purchasing managers rose to 48.8 from 46.9 the previous month.


Enterprise Products, presently the largest MLP,  Q4 profit surged due to its general partners no longer having incentive distribution rights & new investments in shale assets.  Q4 earnings per unit was 82¢. much higher than an average estimates of 55¢.  Full-year 2011 earnings per unit were $2.38, compared with $1.15 in 2010.  The units rose 1.81 to a new  record.  But its yield has fallen below 4%.

Enterprise Q4 profits beat estimatesat bizjournals.com

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)


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Hope springs eternal that the powers will bail out Greece to solve European sovereign debt problems.  Maybe.  Even if they do, the credit agencies are waiting & may signal the bailout is really a default.  This is new territory & everybody is making it up as they go along.  But this involves $Bs, even $Ts.  That's scary.  The Facebook IPO is around the corner & I heard its symbol will be FB,  Its rumored valuation of $100B is staggering.  Many of the finest Dividend Aristocrats have much small market caps.  Even mighty Apple (AAPL) is only $425B.  Doubters remember the days, not so long ago, when those kind of valuations were common.  That period didn't last.  But  Dow is back on offense.

Dow Industrials


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