Thursday, February 9, 2012

Markets keep drifting, awaiting Greek bailout II

Dow inched up 6 (staying close to break even all day), advances & declines were about equal but NAZ added 11.  Bank stocks, not knowing what to do, slipped back.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 197.98 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -0.77    (-0.4%)

The MLP index was up 1+ to the 398s while the REIT index fell 2 to the 249s (remaining near its yearly highs).   Junk bond funds continue in demand & eked out minor gains while Treasuries pulled back.  Oil capped its longest rally this year as unemployment claims unexpectedly declined & Greek political leaders struck a deal on a package of austerity measures.  Gold was flat on mixed signals coming from Europe.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.262%

U.S. 10-year

2.042%

CLH12.NYM....Crude Oil Mar 12...99.78 ...Up 1.07  (1.1%)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




U.S. Mortgage Servicers in $26B Settlement

Foreclosed home
Photo:   Bloomberg

5 mega banks reached a $25B settlement with 49 states & the federal gov to end a probe of abusive foreclosure practices stemming from the collapse of the housing bubble.   The agreement includes a $1.5B payment to 750K borrowers who lost their homes to foreclosure.  About $17B will pay for mortgage debt forgiveness, forbearance, short sales & other assistance to homeowners.  These banks will also provide $3B in refinancings to lower homeowners’ interest rates.  Bank of America (BAC), a Dow stock, has committed up to $11.8B, including a cash payment of $3.24B,  It is believed that this settlement will allow the banks to speed up foreclosures.  The banks were a little lower on the news.

U.S. Mortgage Servicers in $25B Settlement


Facebook

Photo:   Bloomberg

Facebook's (FB ) privately traded shares have risen 10% since it filed for an IPO, pushing its market value past $100B.  SharesPost managed the auction of 150K shares of Facebook’s Class B stock at a price of $44, compared with $40 one week ago which values Facebook at $102B based on an estimated 2.33B shares.  By way of comparison, Coca-Cola (KO which is 126 years old, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat) has a market cap of $164B.  At $100B, Facebook would be valued at 27 times trailing 12-month sales, compared to about 4X for KO.   FB revenue jumped 88% last year to $3.7B, while net income climbed by about 65% to $1B.  That beats KO, you take your pick!

Facebook Value Tops $100B Based on Private Market


  • <p>               The flags of Greece, right, and European Union  flutter from the roof of the Finance Minister at Athens' main Syntagma square, as in the background is seen the ancient Parthenon temple during in Athens on Thursday Feb, 9, 2012. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and his coalition partners have struck a deal on new cuts demanded by creditors to secure a vital euro130 billion bailout. (AP Photo.Dimitri Messinis)
Photo:   Yahoo

More than 2 years after the Greek debt mess began, it may finally have begun its long & painful road to recovery.  The political leaders just struck a deal to make deep cuts in gov jobs & spending to help save the country from a default.  But the deal, under negotiation since Jul, is only one of 2 critical steps Greece must take to receive a €130B ($170B) bailout.  It was will be scrutinized during talks in Brussels among finance ministers from the 17 countries that use the €.  The German Finance Minister said no final agreement unleashing the bailout money would be reached today & added more work had to be done to fulfill the conditions for a bailout.  In addition, Greece is close to an agreement with private investors, who hold nearly 2/3 of its debt, to sharply reduce the country's borrowing costs.  The Greek drama drags on (& on & on etc.).

Greek debt crisis eases, but drama is not over AP


Traders have no idea where to place bets, so markets continue to be adrift.  Reason & clever analysis mean little.  Next week intl biggies will decide if Greece gets bailout II.  By then the negotiations about refinancing the debt with the bondholders should be finalized.  There is a bigger unknown, relating how the Greek population accepts drastic funding cuts.  Barring a major news development, tomorrow should see more sideways trading in low volume markets.

Dow Industrials


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