Thursday, February 9, 2012

Markets muddle along waiting for a Greek bailout

Stocks hardly budged although decliners outnumbered advancers 3-2 as eyes continue to watch Greece.  Bank stocks fell.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 197.93 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    -0.82    (-0.4%)

The MLP index was up a fraction & the REIT index fell 2½ from its yearly highs.  Junk bond funds were little changed.but Treasuries saw selling, taking the 10 year yield well over 2%.  Oil & gold rallied on increased nervousness over the Greek debt mess.

Alerian MLP Index


Value 397.35 One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change    0.22    (0.1%)

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.250%

U.S. 10-year

2.028%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...99.71 ....Up 1.00  (1.0%)

GCG12.CMX...Gold Feb 12.....1,747.40 ...Up 18.10  (1.1%)

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  • Far-right leader George Karatzaferis (L), conservative party leader Antonis Samaras (2nd L), Prime Minister Lucas Papademos (C) and Socialist leader George Papandreou meet at the Prime Minister's office in Athens, February 8, 2012.      REUTERS/Yiorgos Karahalis
Photo:   Yahoo

Greek leaders clinched a long-stalled deal on reforms & austerity measures needed to secure a bailout & avoid a messy default.  The EU & IMF have been exasperated by a lack of agreement on sacrifices they demanded in return for a €130B ($172B) bailout.  Greek Finance Minister Venizelos set off for Brussels without a complete deal after all-night talks.  One sensitive issue, pension cuts, was left unresolved.  Officials say the full package must be agreed with Greece & approved by the EU, IMF & European Central Bank by Wed so paperwork can be completed in time to avoid a chaotic default.  The clock is ticking but don't expect much from this Scotch-Tape approach to solve  fundamental economic problems of spending too much.

Draghi Softens Outlook on Risks as ECB Refuses to Show Its Hand on Greece


Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall Last Week

Photo:   Bloomberg

First- time claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly declined last week. Applications for jobless benefits decreased 15K to 358K according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast had been for 370K.  The 4-week moving average declined to 366K, the lowest since Apr 2008.  But the number continuing to collect benefits rose 64K to 3.52M.  Those who’ve used up traditional benefits & are now collecting emergency & extended payments increased by 18K to 3.5M.  The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, rose to 2.8%.  27 states & territories reported a decrease in claims, while 26 had an increase.  Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings & tend to fall as job growth accelerates.  Better news (shown in the graph) but the unemployment continues in high territory along with the underemployed figure.

First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell Last Week to 358,000

US Initial Jobless Claims

Value 358.00 One-Year Chart for US Initial Jobless Claims SA (INJCJC:IND)
Change    -9.0   (-2.5%)


  • <p>               This Feb. 7, 2012 photo, shows cans Diet Pepsi Wild Cherry at a store in Pittsburgh. PepsiCo said Thursday, Feb. 9, 2012, it will cut 8.700 jobs in a cost-cutting move as it increases investment in advertising and marketing in North America. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Photo:   Yahoo

Speaking of unemployment claims, PepsiCo, a Dividend Aristocrat, plans to cut 8.7K jobs (3%) of its workforce, to offset higher costs for ingredients & increased spending on advertising & marketing in North America.  Restructuring should save $1.5B by 2014, on top of $1.5B in cost cutting it previously announced.  The layoffs were announced as it reported better-than-expected Q4 profit, but forecast a decline in adjusted 2012 earnings.  PEP said "tough decisions" needed to be made because it expects 2012 will be the 2nd year in a row that it will encounter higher-than-average costs for commodities.  CEO Nooyi said although it's cutting 3% of its 800K worldwide work force, the reduction is spread out over 30 countries & the company typically adds 10-15K jobs in one year.  At the same time, PEP will increase advertising & marketing behind its brands by $500-$600M in 2012, with a particular focus on North America.  Additionally, it plans to increase divs & share buybacks to return cash to shareholders.  The stock dropped 2.82 (4%).

PepsiCo to Cut 8,700 Jobs, Boost Marketing

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)


stock chart


The story hasn't changed much this week, stocks aren't sure where to go with the uncertainty over the Greek bailout.  Gold is in a rally mode, a bet on more unhappiness coming out of Europe.  There are so many unknowns, it's unusually difficult to imagine what stocks will do.  The high yield sectors aren't getting a lot of attention, but their securities are at multi year highs.  Yields still matter!

Dow Industrials


stock chart








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