Friday, February 24, 2012

Markets edge higher on improved consumer sentiment

Dow was up 15, advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 7.  The Financial Index slipped a fraction to below 198.

The MLP index was up fractionally in the 408s & the REIT index fell a fraction in the 245s.  Junk bond funds continue their winning ways, bringing even lower yields, while Treasuries were flattish.  Oil saw little movement as it pushed towards $110 & gold was hit with profit raking after recent gains.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.092%

U.S. 2-year

0.297%

U.S. 10-year

1.981%

CLJ12.NYM.....Crude Oil Apr 12...108.11 ....Up 0.28  (0.3%)

GCG12.CMX...Gold Feb 12.......1,773.60 ...Down 11.30  (0.6%)


Consumer sentiment improved a tad in Feb to a yearly high as Americans became more confident about the economy's resilience.  The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading of the index on consumer sentiment came in at 75.3, edging up from 75.0 in Jan, the highest level since Feb 2011.  The expectations was for a reading of 73.0.  "It is not that surging oil prices, instability in the Mideast, the European crisis or uncertainties about future tax and spending policies could not ultimately derail the recovery, but that consumers expect the pace of overall economic growth to continue to slowly restore lost jobs despite these potential problems," survey director Richard Curtin said.  The survey's barometer of current economic conditions eased to 83.0 from 84.2 but its gauge of consumer expectations rose to its highest in a year, at 70.3 from 69.1.  Curtin said the divergent components suggested "the overall gain was anchored by the expectation that the recovery has legs, even if the pace edges up to a brisk walk, at best."  A third of consumers spontaneously reported hearing about more job opportunities, the highest proportion ever recorded by the survey.  Encouraging news.

  • <p>               In this Feb. 8, 2012 photo, two workers carry a window for a home  under construction in a new subdivision by Toll Brothers, in Yardley, Pa. Sales of new U.S. homes dipped in January but only after the government said the final quarter of 2011 was stronger than first estimated. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Photo:   Yahoo

Sales of new homes dipped in Jan but Q4 of 2011 was stronger than first estimated.  The Commerce Dept said that new-home sales fell 0.9% to an annual rate of 321K homes, following 4 straight months of gains in which home sales rose 10%.  The gains came after the upwardly revised Q4 & Dec figures.  The annual sales pace in Dec was 324K, the highest in a year.  Even with more sales, just 304K new homes were sold in 2011, the fewest on records dating back to 1963, & new homes are selling well below the 700K rate in a healthy market.  Builders are growing more optimistic after seeing more people express interest in buying this year, they've also sought more permits to build single-family homes.  Sales prices for new homes are rising.  The median sales price of a new home rose 0.3% to $217K.  Relatively good news in a depressed industry.

Sales of New Homes Probably Rose to Nine-Month High


  • <p>               FILE - In this Nov. 25, 2011 file photo, Rosio Guerrero, left, shops at the JC Penney, in Phoenix, Ariz. J.C. Penney Co.  said Friday, Feb. 24, 2012, it posted a loss in the fourth-quarter as results were dragged down by restructuring and management transition charges as well as the financial impact related to its new pricing strategy. (AP/Photo/The Arizona Republic, Tom Tingle, File) MARICOPA COUNTY, NO SALES
Photo:   Yahoo

JC Penney reported a loss of $87M in Q4 from restructuring & management transition charges as well as the financial impact of preparing for its new pricing strategy.  "While 2011 was a year of transition at J.C. Penney, 2012 will be a year of transformation," CEO Ron Johnson said.  With a new pricing plan that debuted shortly after the end of Q4, the company is embracing a 3-tier strategy: everyday prices that are about 40% less than initial prices of a year ago, deeper promotions that last a month and clearance events the first and third Friday of each month.  The loss per share amounted to 41¢, below EPS of $1.13 in the year-ago period.  The results include restructuring & management charges that totaled 56¢.  The impact of its pricing strategy, debuted Feb 1, lowered results by an additional 59¢.  Excluding those charges, the company earned 74¢, which beat estimates of 68¢.  Revenue slipped 5% to $5.42B, reflecting the company's exit from its catalog business & revenue at stores open at least a year fell 1.8%.  The stock fell 41¢.

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. Holding Company (JCP)


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Markets continue to muddle along as they have all week.  Dow just pushed over 13K, but who knows if that will hold?  The economic data in the US is favorable although short of earning a grade of A.  Gas prices keep climbing & the price off crude suggests more price hikes are ahead.  High price gas is a solid negative for the economy.  The Greek debt mess lumbers on.  Progress there is measured in inches.  Dow may top 13K at a close, but that will probably not be a convincing fashion. 

Dow Industrials


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