Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Markets decline in favor of safe haven investments

Dow lost 179 (but above the lows), decliners over advancers better than 3-1 & NAZ fell 72.  The MLP index plunged 6+ to the 331s (down 220 from last year's record highs) & the REIT index was off 3+ to the 304s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries saw buying.  Oil & gold were weak.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)








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CLV15.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 15....46.17 Down ...0.51  (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



The US will press China during a state visit by pres Xi Jinping to avoid "quick fixes" for its economy such as devaluing its currency to boost exports,  White House chief economist Jason Furman said.  He said China's recent loosening of controls on the yuan currency "caused turmoil" in global financial markets & that US officials would also raise the issue of China's volatile stock market.  The overarching message from the Americans is that China needs to make profound changes in its economic model so that growth is powered by consumer spending rather than by investment and exports, he said.  "You need to not be doing quick fixes in terms of using your exchange rate or exports," Furman said.  Xi & Obama are expected to have intense talks about cyber espionage during the Chinese leader's time in DC, but economic issues are also expected to be high on the agenda.  Furman said the White House, which is concerned that economic fragility abroad will taint US growth, had been monitoring fluctuations in Chinese stock markets closely.  "It's certainly something we pay attention to and it's something we'll be engaging with President Xi on this week," he added.  China shocked investors in Aug by allowing the yuan to devalue sharply.  Many analysts took this as a sign China's leaders were so worried about a slowing economy that they wanted a weaker currency to prop up exports.  A senior Treasury official said last week that since the devaluation in Aug, Chinese authorities have been intervening to stem losses in the yuan, which has been under pressure due to doubts over China's growth prospects.  Critics for years complained that China kept its currency artificially weak to boost exports.  America is pressing Beijing to enact fiscal stimulus measures that would boost household consumption.

U.S. to China: Avoid Quick Economic Fixes


Dems blocked the fiscal 2016 defense spending bill in the Senate, amid a fierce fight with Reps over tax & spending policy days before a potential Oct 1 gov shutdown.  The vote was 54-42, largely along party lines with Rep voting yes & Democrats no.  It meant the appropriations measure failed to achieve the 60-vote majority needed to advance to final passage in the Senate.  Congressional Dems & Reps are fighting over a range of tax & spending issues as the end of the fiscal year approaches next week.  In the case of the Dep of Defense, Dems oppose a Rep led plan to use $38B in special war contingency funds to let the Pentagon sidestep mandatory "sequestration" spending cuts put in place under the 2011 Budget Control Act.  A similar vote on the appropriations bill in Jun also failed.  The 2 parties also have been arguing over Rep-led efforts to include a measure to defund Planned Parenthood in any temporary funding measure to keep the gov open.

Senate Democrats Block Defense-Spending Bill


General Mills reported a better-than-expected quarterly net profit as US sales showed further recovery.  US sales rose 3.6% to $2.53B in fiscal Q1, accounting for more than 60% of total revenue.  Sales in the US have been under pressure as consumers change their eating habits, shifting away from some of the main products it sells, such as meals & cereals.  Sales were helped partly by the acquisition of organic food producer Annie's.  The deal boosted General Mills's organic food business, which includes Cascadian Farm & healthy snacks makers Food Should Taste Good.  EPS rose to 69¢, up from 55¢ a year earlier.  Excluding items, EPS was 79¢, well above the estimate of 69¢.  Net slipped 1.4% to $4.21B, hurt by a strong dollar.  Analysts were expecting the company to post revenue of $4.75B.  The stock rose 34¢.  If you would like to learn more about GIS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GIS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

General Mills 1Q Profit Rises, Revenue Misses

General Mills (GIS)



The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond declined 9 basis points, a very big move.  However, gold did not see buying as a safe haven investment & remains near 1100 where it has been for months.  A threat of a gov shutdown is another dark cloud the markets have to worry about.  Dow is down 200 in Sep, not bad considering this is traditionally the worst month of the year.

Dow Jones Industrials

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