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Monday, December 21, 2015
Markets rebound after Disney's StarWars sets box office record
Dow climbed 121, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ jumped up 40 (but still under 5K). The MLP index rose 2+ to the 257s & the REIT index gained 2+ to almost 321. Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries edged higher. Oil dropped to just above 34 (see below) & gold has one solid gain.
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” probably took about $528M in
box-office sales worldwide in its record weekend debut, more than Walt
Disney, a Dow company, anticipated, CEO Bob Iger said. At
that level, the first live-action “Star Wars” film in a decade beats the
previous global record by about $3M “Jurassic World” reached
$525M earlier this year. As of Sun, DIS estimated the worldwide total at $517M. “It’s
bigger than big -- it’s bigger than we thought it would be yesterday,”
Iger said. “And China has yet to open.” The
new “Star Wars” film will nourish studio, theme-park &
merchandise businesses for years. Since acquiring creator Lucasfilm for
$4B in 2012, DIS has expanded the
merchandise lines, produced new TV shows & mapped plans for themed
lands at parks in California & Florida. And the studio has as many as 5 more “Star Wars” films in the works. While “Star
Wars” has shattered records, other parts of company businesses have
raised concerns. Recent subscriber losses at ESPN, which
remains the dominant sports outlet in American & is its most
profitable channel, have contributed to meltdowns in media stocks
The latest “Star Wars” also shattered records domestically. Market researcher Rentrak estimated that the
movie collected $238M in US & Canadian ticket sales, topping
the $209M hauled in by “Jurassic World.”
Iger said the actual number may reach $247M. The stocks went up 35¢. If you would like to learn more about DIS, click on this link:club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/DIS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
The oil markets continued their bear run with Brent hitting intraday lows not seen since 2004, as an
expanding global surplus due to high-paced production output sparked
fears prices will fall further. Brent went as low as $36.17 a barrel. Its
US counterpart, West Texas Intermediate, was also down as it
entered its final day of trading until the Jan contract rolls over
into Feb. The outlook remained bleak for oil producers as the massive oversupply & a strong dollar continued to batter the market.
Exactly how low oil prices will continue to fall isn't clear with some
industry analysts insisting $20 oil is
possible in 2016. Others believe if Brent drops by another $1.50 a
barrel, it could trigger traders & money managers to enter the market,
in turn kick-starting a mini rally. The global oversupply issue has now become so
acute that some analysts said it was possible daily
surplus could "overwhelm" available storage capacity. The US
shale oil sector continues to confound its doubters. Data showed that
the number of rigs rose by 17 last week, suggesting the predicted free
fall in production that was predicted for early 2016 won't occur, with a
much longer production tail-off more likely. US oil
production is expected to fall from its current levels of about 9.1M barrels a day to 8.6M barrels a day by mid-2016.
Data from Baker Hughes showed that the
number of active US oil-drilling rigs climbed by 17 to 541 as of
Fri. The total active rig count, which includes natural-gas
rigs, was unchanged at 709. Compared with last year, the total rig count
has fallen by 1166, with the oil-rig count down 995.
There is not a lot going on in this semi-holiday period. With no dramatic news (other than Star Wars), the bears are spending their profits & the bulls have the upper hand. Oil remains in a very ugly bear market & that is being pushed aside for the moment. More word about retail holiday sales will generate price activity.
0.54 (1.6%)
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