Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Higher markets after Trump gets a euro trade deal

Dow shot up 172 (all came in the last 30 mins), advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 91.  The MLP index jumped up 4+ to the 277s & the REIT index gained 2+ to 350.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries remained a tad higher.  Oil is above 69 again (more below) & gold added 6 to 1232.

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Pres Trump secured concessions from Europe, averting a trade war, according to a EU official.  The report came shortly before Trump & European Commission Pres Jean-Claude Juncker were scheduled to brief the press at a joint conference in the White House Rose Garden.  The market rallied on the news.  The Europeans agreed to lower industrial tariffs & import more US soybeans.  Trump said earlier today said he hoped "to work something out on a fair trade deal with Europe."

Trump secures concessions from Europeans to avoid trade war: DJ, citing EU official

Norfolk Southern (NSC) Q2 profit raced ahead as the railroad handled 6% more freight.  The company had EPS of $2.50, up from $1.71 a year ago.  The results surpassed the $2.31 expected.  "Our second-quarter results reflect strong growth in our business and our sustained commitment to improving financial performance," CEO Jim Squires said.  Revenue chugged up 10% to $2.9B in the qtr, better than the $2.85B expected.  The railroad was also helped by this year's corp tax cuts.  The company paid $214M in taxes during the qtr, down from last year's $283M.  The company expects results to remain strong in H2 as consumer spending increases & the market for truck shipping remains tight.  The stock gained 7.88 (5%).
If you would like to learn more about NSC, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/NSC?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Norfolk Southern 2Q profit up 43 percent as volume increases


EBay (EBAY) forecast Q3 profit below estimates as efforts to revamp its e-commerce platforms failed to impress investors.  The company forecast Q3 adjusted EPS of 54-56¢ & revenue of $2.64-2.69B.  Analysts on average were expecting EPS of 56¢ & revenue of $2.66B.  The company also lowered its full-year revenue forecast to $10.75-10.85B from $10.9-11.1B previously.  Excluding items, EPS was 53¢, beating the estimate for 51¢.  Revenue rose to $2.64B from $2.42B.  The stock went up 37¢.
If you would like to learn more about EBAY, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/EBAT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

EBay's third-quarter forecast misses estimates


The head of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is appealing to countries to speak out in favor of free trade & is warning about the vast negative consequences of a possible trade war after Trump administration tariffs imposed on key US trading partners.  WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said he refused, as a policy, to point fingers, but alluded to "this dynamic of trade restriction" that could damage the world economy if it endures.  He also warned about the "worst-case scenario" of a world without rules on trade, saying that "the law of the jungle" would have devastating consequences for growth & jobs.  He added that investors "are going to pull back, the economy is going to lose steam and over time jobs will be lost — millions of jobs will be lost."

The Latest: WTO leader says trade war damages world economy


Pres Trump said he hoped "to work something out on a fair trade deal with Europe."  Trump spoke during a meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who made his first visit to the Trump White House today.  Trump & Juncker both said their aim was to lower tariffs & trade barriers between the US & Europe.  "If we can have no tariffs, and no barriers and no subsidies, the United States would be extremely pleased," Trump said.  The pres said he & Juncker were working to achieve a "reciprocal" trade relationship.  "We're making tremendous strides," Trump added, "and we expect something very positive to take place."  In brief remarks, Juncker also stressed the importance of meeting face-to-face, & threw a subtle jab at Trump's habit of tweeting threats at US trading partners.  "I think we have to talk to each other, and not at one another," Juncker said. "That's what we'll do today."  Yesterday, Trump tweeted that could be seen as the pres talking "at" the Europeans.  "The European Union is coming to Washington tomorrow to negotiate a deal on Trade," he tweeted.  "I have an idea for them. Both the U.S. and the E.U. drop all Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies! That would finally be called Free Market and Fair Trade! Hope they do it, we are ready - but they won’t!"  Juncker's visit came during what many experts see as an historic low-point for US-European relations, which have become frayed by Trump's trade wars, his fondness for Russian Pres Putin & Trump's skepticism of multilateral institutions like NATO & the EU.  In announcing Juncker's visit, the White House said on Jul 17 that the 2 men would discuss "a wide range of priorities, including foreign and security policy, counterterrorism, energy security, and economic growth," with a "focus on improving transatlantic trade and forging a stronger economic partnership."

Trump: 'We hope to work something out on a fair trade deal with Europe'

Oil prices rose for a 2nd day after gov data showed US crude inventories fell to the lowest since Feb 2015, easing worries about oversupply that have weighed on markets in recent weeks.  However, trade was volatile following the report, with crude futures falling from session highs to lows & then rebounding, as traders digested the data.  Brent crude was up 50¢ at $73.94 a barrel, after gaining ½% yesterday.  US light crude rose 78¢ (1.1%) to $69.30, having risen nearly 1% in the previous session.  Overall, crude inventories fell  6.1M barrels in latest the week, EIA data showed, their lowest since Feb 2015.  Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.3M barrels.  However, much of the headline drop in crude stockpiles occurred in the West Coast.  US crude imports fell 2.5M barrels, continuing a trend of large fluctuations in the nation's purchases of foreign oil.  Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.1M barrels, the EIA said, their lowest since 2014.

Oil prices rise as US crude stockpiles fall more than expected

Stocks worked hard today for an advance & then shot up going into the close on the trade deal news.  Tariffs are becoming more important in company reports.  They have been mentioned in more than 40% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings this season.  The $12B bailout for farmers that Trump proposed is not receiving a warm reception in DC.  But late day buying was a solid plus for the Dow.  Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Dow Jones Industrials









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