Monday, July 23, 2018

Markets retreat ahead of earnings reports this week

Dow declined 60, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ fell 24.  The MLP index crawled higher in the 271s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 348s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold again, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury to 2.93%.  Oil was up pennies in the 68s & gold lost 6 to 1224 (around 1 year lows).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil68.43
+0.17+0.3%

GC=FGold  1,224.80
 -6.30-0.5%







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Stocks opened flattish, as traders waded thru the latest earnings reports & while geopolitical concerns once again entered the spotlight.  Trump tweeted a strong warning to Iran.  “To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!” he tweeted last night.  The tweet came hours after Rouhani said, “America should know that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars,” according to the state news agency, IRNA.  Additionally, Tesla (TSLA) shares took a hit following a report that the company asked suppliers to reduce costs.  In response to an article, TSLA CEO Elon Musk tweeted that, "only costs that actually apply to Q3 & beyond will be counted. It would not be correct to apply historical cost savings to current quarter."  Over the weekend, there was a meeting between finance ministers & central bankers from the Group of 20 & little progress was made when it came to trade tensions.  Economic data points tonday include a reading on existing home sales.  Commodities were mixed, but oil was higher amid the new tensions between Iran & the US & an offshore workers strike on 3 oil & gas platforms in the British North Sea.

Geopolitical issues affect stocks, busy corporate earnings in the midst


Pres Trump will host a variety of US companies at the White House to promote American manufacturing & jobs, as the administration continues to impose tariffs on imports.  An F-35 fighter jet will represent Lockheed Martin (LMT), while a Texas boot maker, an Idaho stove maker & other smaller companies will also be featured at the "Made in America" event.  Other items on display at the White House include Wiffle balls & bats from Connecticut, jeans from Oklahoma & snowboards from Colorado.  The event comes as trade tensions with other nations continues to grow.  The US most recently imposed 25% tariffs on $34B worth of Chinese goods in early Jul.  Beijing responded, adding levies on US goods worth $34N.  Trump threatened China last week to impose tariffs on all $500B of imports from China.  Trump's administration also slapped tariffs on steel & aluminum imports from Canada & the EU in early Jun, citing national security concerns.  America's northern neighbor responded by placing levies on nearly $13B worth of American goods.  US automakers including Ford (F), which will have an F-150 pickup truck featured at the White House tonday, have expressed concerns over the administration's potential 25% tariff on vehicles built abroad & imported to the US.

Trump to promote US jobs, manufacturing at White House 'Made in America' event


US home sales fell for a 3rd straight month in Jun as a persistent shortage of properties on the market pushed up house prices to a record high, likely sidelining some potential buyers.  The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38M units last month.  May's sales pace was revised down to 5.41M units from the previously reported 5.43M units.  The forecast called for existing home sales gaining 0.5% to a rate of 5.44M units in Jun.  Sales rose in the Northeast & Midwest, but fell in the West & populous South.  Existing home sales, which make up about 90% of US home sales, fell 2.2% from a year ago in Jun.  They have dropped on a year-over-year basis for 4 consecutive months & declined 2.2% in H1.  Sales are being stymied by an acute shortages of homes on the market.  Rising building materials costs as well as shortages of land & labor have left builders unable to bridge the inventory gap, pushing up house prices.  Supply constraints have largely accounted for the sluggish housing market but there are growing concerns that the higher house prices together with rising mortgage rates will slow down demand.  Supply has been especially tight at the lower end of the market, which accounts for a large portion of the housing market.  There were 1.95M  previously-owned homes on the market in Jun, up 4.3% from May.  Inventory increased 0.5% from a year ago, the first year-on-year increase since Jun 2015.  Supply still remains very tight.  At Jun's sales pace, it would take 4.3 months to exhaust the current inventory, up from 4.1 months in May.  A 6-7 month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply & demand.  The median house price increased 5.2% from a year ago to an all-time high of $276K in Jun, the 76th consecutive month of year-on-year price gains.

US existing home sales fall for third straight month


Stocks are drifting lower, waiting for big news stories.  Traders are nervous about earnings, especially in the tech sector.  Trade negotiations continue to be stuck in the mud, a condition that could last for months while intl trade suffers.  After a rally in Jul, the Dow has been digesting early earnings reports which has brought on modest selling.  Since reaching its peak 6 months ago, it has been unable to extend the post election rally.

Dow Jones Industrials

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