Thursday, July 26, 2018

Higher markets even after selling in tech shares

Dow jumped up 130, advancers over decliners about 2-1 while NAZ sank 75.  The MLP index was flat in the 277s & the REIT index rose 2+ to the 352s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries drifted lower.  Oil was steady in the 69s & gold lost 6 to 1225.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil69.25
-0.05-0.1%

GC=FGold  1,229.00
-2.80-0.2%








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Stocks opened mixed with the NAZ lower, as Facebook (FB) shares plunged after the social media giant warned of slowing growth in coming qtrs as it ramps up spending to address concerns about data privacy & "fake news" on the platform.  FB expenses will rise by 50%-60% this year as the company invests in data security, new technology & other initiatives, CFO David Wehner said.  The company missed expectations for Q2 revenue & reported sagging user growth in key markets after the Cambridge Analytica data breach.  The ECB released its latest interest rate decision & as expected, held rates steady.   Stateside, economic data points included the latest durable goods report & also the weekly jobless claims numbers.  Jobless claims rose 9K after falling to a 48-year low.  Durable-goods orders rose 1% in Jun, the first increase in 3 months.  US stocks rallied yesterday, erasing earlier losses, after Pres Trump & European officials met in DC for trade talks.  Trump announced that the US & EU agreed to work toward zero tariffs & zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods & avoid any new tariffs while talks are ongoing.  Trump had threatened to slap tariffs on European car imports.  The EU also agreed to buy more US soybeans, while the US will work toward resolving tariffs recently imposed on European steel & aluminum.  The Dow jumped 172 (0.7%) to 25,414 & the S&P 500 gained 25 to close at 2846.07.  The NAZ was up 91 at 7932.  Commodities were mostly lower today.

Nasdaq falls as Facebook results disappoint

Orders for long-lasting US factory goods rose in Jun after declining for 2 months, a sign manufacturing is still growing despite a series of global trade disputes.  The Commerce Dept said that durable goods orders.meant to last at least 3 years, from cars to appliances — rose 1% in Jun.  Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders increased 0.4%, the 5th straight monthly gain.  Demand for metals, such as steel & aluminum, fell 0.4%, the 2nd straight drop.  Prices for the 2 metals have risen sharply since the Trump administration placed duties on them this spring.  But orders for most other goods remained healthy, evidence that US trade fights with China, the EU, Canada & Mexico have yet to significantly restrain manufacturing growth.  A category of orders that tracks business investment spending rose 0.6% in Jun, following a 0.7% increase in the previous month.  May's figure was revised higher from an initial estimate of a 0.2% decline.  Auto orders jumped 4.4%, the most in 3 years.  That increase likely reflected efforts by auto companies to build up their inventories ahead of the potential implementation of large US duties on imported cars & car parts.  Yet those auto duties appeared less likely after Pres Trump took a step back yesterday from his global trade fight after meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.  The 2 leaders agreed to put new tariffs on hold while they negotiated a broader trade deal that could include the removal of steel & aluminum tariffs from European imports.  The Trump administration may still impose the duties later this year on auto imports from Canada, Mexico, Japan & other nations.  The Commerce Dept is investigating whether imported cars & trucks are a threat to national security.  The healthy increase in durable goods orders points to robust growth in Q2.  Most economists forecast the economy expanded at an annual rate of roughly 4.5%, with some projecting growth as strong as 5%.  Some believe the growth spurt will likely prove temporary, fueled in part by a jump in exports to get ahead of retaliatory tariffs imposed on US goods by other countries.  The economy is expected to expand just 2.5-3% in Q3.

Orders for US durable goods rise a solid 1% in June

Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said that the Trump administration won't carry out its threat to impose auto tariffs while trade negotiations with the EU are ongoing.  “The steel and aluminum tariffs remain in place and investigation on autos will continue,” Ross said during an interview yesterday.  “It’s just we won't impose any auto tariffs as long as negotiations are progressing properly.”  Pres Trump & European Commission Pres Jean-Claude Juncker announced a trade agreement that involves working toward zero tariffs & resolving retaliatory tariffs.  “We have some tariffs that are retaliatory and that will get resolved as part of what we are doing,” Trump said yesterday.  Ross said a bilateral trade relationship between the US & the EU would be beneficial when dealing with the escalating US tariffs on goods from China.  “Assuming we do make a deal with the EU, it would be logical for the EU also to be supportive of us in the issues with China,” he added.

Auto tariffs won’t be imposed on European Union: Wilbur Ross


McDonald's (MCD), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, says a key sales figure rose in its flagship US market during Q2, driven by higher prices & more expensive menu items.  The world's biggest burger chain says sales rose 2.6% at domestic stores open at least 13 months.  Globally, the figure rose 4%.  The figure is considered an indicator of health because it strips out the effect of newly opened & closed locations.  The improved sales come as the chain tries to modernize its operations with changes like ordering kiosks & delivery.  But the company has also been shrinking its domestic stores base in recent years & now has less than 14K US locations.  For the period ended Jun 30, EPS was $1.90 & adjusted for restructuring costs, was $1.99.(7¢ better than expected).  Total revenue of $5.35B in the period, also edging out forecasts.  The stock fell 3.
If you would like to learn more about MCD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Higher prices help McDonald's lift US sales figure


FB's dreary story is bleeding thru to other tech stocks.  They have been having another outstanding year, but that has led to a vastly overbought market for tech shares.  FB plunged a massive 42 (20%) today.  Meanwhile ordinary stocks are fairly well.  Prospects for new trade deals are very encouraging even if they bring a bumpy ride over the short term.  The Dow is at a 6 month high on the 6 month anniversary its Jan 26 record.  And it's only 1K from the record, not too bad.

Dow Jones Industrials








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