Dow gained 80, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ went up 25. The MLP index rose 1+ to the 263s & the REIT index was steady in the 353s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries hardly budged in price. Oil dipped below 74 & gold added 3 to 1257 (still near recent lows).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but the trend in jobless claims continued to point to tightening labor market conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3K to a seasonally adjusted 231K for the latest week, the Labor Dept said. The forecast accled for claims falling to 225K. Claims could become volatile in the coming weeks as automobile manufacturers close assembly lines for annual retooling. More auto workers are likely to be affected by the temporary plant closures than in the past, which could throw off the model that the gov uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations. General Motors (GM) has announced it will close its Flint assembly plant for all of Jul. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2K to 224K last week. The labor market is viewed as being near or at full employment, with the jobless rate at an 18-year low of 3.8%. The unemployment rate has dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point this year & is near the Federal Reserve's forecast of 3.6% by the end of this year. With a record 6.7M unfilled jobs, layoffs are running very low. The gov is likely to report tomorow that employers added 195K jobs to their payrolls in Jun, on top of the 223K positions created in May. The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 32K to 1.74M in the latest week. The 4-week moving average of continuing claims fell 1K to 1.72M, the lowest level since 1973.
German factory orders surged in May, beating expectations & ending a string of declines. The Federal Statistical Office reported that industrial orders rose 2.6% in May over the previous month in Europe's largest economy when adjusted for seasonal & calendar effects. The increase was driven by a 6.7% rise in orders from within the eurozone & 4.3% increase in domestic orders. The last time factory orders increased was in Dec 2017 & the succession of monthly declines had raised concerns that the German economy may be cooling. The prediction was for a 1.1% increase in May. The Economy Ministry says industrial growth should continue in a gradual upward trend in the coming months.
Not a lot going on today for stocks. Hope springs eternal for improved trade announcements, but they may take a lot of time. Following the opening, there has been some selling. Dow continues to hold above the important 24K support level.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 73.84 | -0.30 | -0.4% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,256.20 | +2.70 | +0.2% |
Stocks opened higher as traders
returned to work following the July Fourth holiday with a plate full of
economic reports to digest before the week ends. Data
already released today included jobless claims, which hit a 6-week high of 231K, but overall layoffs remained around their
lowest in decades. Private payroll processor
ADP said the private sector added 177K jobs in Jun. The ADP report
can be seen as a preview to the gov monthly jobs report that
will be released tomorrow. Analysts expect that the US economy added
195K jobs in Jun while the unemployment rate should hold steady at
3.8%. Also, the IHS Markit final
Jun US services index came in at 56.5 versus 56.8 in May. This
marks the fastest business activity growth acceleration since Apr
2015. The Federal Reserve will also release the minutes of the last policy setting meeting. Auto stocks climbed following a report of tariff talks between the US & Europe.
Stocks rise following latest economic data
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but the trend in jobless claims continued to point to tightening labor market conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3K to a seasonally adjusted 231K for the latest week, the Labor Dept said. The forecast accled for claims falling to 225K. Claims could become volatile in the coming weeks as automobile manufacturers close assembly lines for annual retooling. More auto workers are likely to be affected by the temporary plant closures than in the past, which could throw off the model that the gov uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations. General Motors (GM) has announced it will close its Flint assembly plant for all of Jul. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2K to 224K last week. The labor market is viewed as being near or at full employment, with the jobless rate at an 18-year low of 3.8%. The unemployment rate has dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point this year & is near the Federal Reserve's forecast of 3.6% by the end of this year. With a record 6.7M unfilled jobs, layoffs are running very low. The gov is likely to report tomorow that employers added 195K jobs to their payrolls in Jun, on top of the 223K positions created in May. The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 32K to 1.74M in the latest week. The 4-week moving average of continuing claims fell 1K to 1.72M, the lowest level since 1973.
US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rise
German factory orders surged in May, beating expectations & ending a string of declines. The Federal Statistical Office reported that industrial orders rose 2.6% in May over the previous month in Europe's largest economy when adjusted for seasonal & calendar effects. The increase was driven by a 6.7% rise in orders from within the eurozone & 4.3% increase in domestic orders. The last time factory orders increased was in Dec 2017 & the succession of monthly declines had raised concerns that the German economy may be cooling. The prediction was for a 1.1% increase in May. The Economy Ministry says industrial growth should continue in a gradual upward trend in the coming months.
German factory orders surge in May, reversing trend
American businesses added 177K workers in Jun, a sign of health &
resilience for the US labor market & economy. Payroll processor ADP said that hiring
was led by employers with more than 50 workers, accounting for 84% of the job growth. The education & health sector led the gains
by adding 46K workers. Leisure & hospitality added 33K jobs, as
did professional & business services. The
job growth of the past several years reflects an economic expansion that
is now entering its 10th year. But the hiring gains are now creating a
challenge for employers to find capable workers, said Mark Zandi, chief
economist at Moody's Analytics, which helps put together the report. "Business'
number one problem is finding qualified workers," Zandi said. "At the
current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to get
much worse." Employers could address this shortage by raising
wages, but significant pay growth has yet to take hold. Average hourly
wages have been flat for the past year after adjusting for inflation,
according to the Labor Dept. The ADP
figures come one day before the gov releases its monthly
employment report. The forecast is expected to show solid job growth of 195K the unemployment rate is
expected to hold at 3.8%. ADP compiles
hiring data from millions of companies that are clients of its payroll
services. Its figures frequently diverge from the gov report.
Last month, the gov said private employers added 218K jobs,
which was higher than ADP's revised figure of 189K.
Survey: US employers added 177,000 jobs in June
Not a lot going on today for stocks. Hope springs eternal for improved trade announcements, but they may take a lot of time. Following the opening, there has been some selling. Dow continues to hold above the important 24K support level.
Dow Jones Industrials
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