Friday, July 13, 2018

Markets rise cautiously on mixed bank earnings

Dow went up 39, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ added 9.  The MLP index pulled back slightly to the 264s & the REIT index was off fractionally to the 355s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries crawled higher.  Oil climbed after recent selling, still below 71, & gold was off 4 to 1242 (near its yearly low)..

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil70.52
+0.19+0.3%

GC=FGold  1,240.80
 -5.80 -0.5%








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Stocks were little changed, as traders digested the latest earnings reports, which included results from 3 major US banks.  JPMorgan Chase (JPM), a Dow stock, earnings & revenue topped expectations, Citigroup (C) beat on earnings but missed on revenue while Wells Fargo (WFC) missed on both earnings & revenue.  Traders also had some economic data to contend with.  The Jun US import price index fell 0.4% on lower energy & food costs, the biggest drop for the index since Feb 2016.  Export prices increased 0.3%.  While stocks were flat, there was a string of new records for some big tech names.  In commodities, oil was slightly higher following its recent drubbing.  Stocks rebounded yesterday following a trade war fueled sell-off.  The Dow surged 224 (0.9%) to 24,924.

Stocks flat as traders digest mixed bank earnings

China saw exports unexpectedly rise in Jun & its trade surplus with the US hit a record high.  The results look set to keep a bitter trade dispute with DC going for a while.  Official data did show that growth in imports for June showed a moderate slowdown from May.  The data was reported after Pres Trump raised the stakes in its trade dispute with China on Tues, saying it would slap 10% tariffs on an extra $200B worth of Chinese imports, including numerous consumer items.  Firing the first shots in a trade war that has rattled financial markets & raised risks to the global economy.  The US last week imposed 25% tariffs on $34B of Chinese imports & China retaliated with tariffs of the same amount on US goods.  China's Jun exports rose 11.3% from a year earlier, beating forecasts for a 10% increase & down from a 12.6% gain in May.  Imports grew 14.1% in Jun, customs said, missing the forecast for 20.8% growth & compared with a 26% rise in May.  The Chinese ministry encouraged companies to increase import of soybean, soymeal, vehicles, aquatic products from other markets.  China exports to the US rose 13.6% in H1 from a year earlier, while its imports from the US rose 11.8% in the same period.  China continues to win the trade balance between the 2 countries.  In Jun the surplus with the US was at $29B, up from $24.6B in May, based on customs data released today.  The surplus was the highest ever with the US for any single month, based on official data going back to 2008.

Record China exports to US set in June

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), a Dow stock, topped Q2 expectations thanks to a “healthy” US consumer while the bank continued to benefit from the new tax law.  EPS was $2.29 on managed revenue of $28.4 billion.  The forecast called for EPS of $2.22 on revenue of $27.36.  Commenting on the results, JPMorgan said, “Healthy U.S. consumer drove double-digit growth in client investment assets, card sales and merchant processing volumes” in the qtr.  CEO Jamie Dimon said that this qtr alone, the company announced new card products, while the company “plans for more significant investment in China.”  The stock rose 17¢.
If you would like to learn more about JPM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JPM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

JPMorgan Chase books strong organic growth in second quarter

Citigroup (C) Q2 profits jumped 16% from a year earlier, helped by a much lower tax bill & higher revenue earned on loans & interest.  Earnings of $4.49B,were up from $3.87B a year ago & EPS rose to $1.63 from $1.28 a year earlier.  The forecast called for $1.56.  Citi grew its loans & assets in the qtr.  The bank benefited from higher interest rates, which allowed it to charge borrowers more for loans.  But revenue growth was tepid, rising only 2% from a year earlier to $18.47B.  Most of Citi's profit growth this qtr came because its tax bill dropped, as it did in Q1.  The amount of money Citi paid in taxes last quarter dropped 20% from a year earlier to $1.44B from $1.76B a year earlier.  The stock fell 1.75.
If you would like to learn more about Citi, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/C?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Citigroup 2Q earnings rise 16 pct; revenue growth is tepid


As pointed out recently, earnings expectations are high which means there is a lot of room for disappointment.  Today's earnings were uninspiring.  While bank earnings are complicated making it difficult to apply these results to regular corps, earnings season could be bumpier than expected.  Meanwhile the trade wars with China & other countries is droning on.  That's not a good sign for the stock market.  However, stocks having been inching higher in the last hour.  The bulls have not given up.

Dow Jones Industrials








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