Thursday, July 26, 2018

Markets rise as Nasdaq tumbles on Facebook earnings

Dow advanced 112, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ plummeted 80.  The MLP index gained 3+ to 281 (part of a good run in Jul) & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 351s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up 4 basis points to 2.97%.  Oil went up in the 69s & gold remained weak, dropping 8 to 1223.

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US economic growth for Q2, which will be released by the Dept of Commerce tomorrow, will likely be a “very good” number, according to President Trump's chief economic adviser.  “You’re going to get a very good economic growth number tomorrow,” Larry Kudlow said.  While Kudlow has no formal knowledge of the number, he suggested GDP growth could surpass 4%. Economists polled are predicting a read of 4.2%.  The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow tracker, which last week estimated it could hit 4.6%, has tempered that down to 3.8%.  Earlier this week, it was reported the White House is preparing to take a victory lap on the progress the economy is making, thanks to efforts like the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act.  The last time quarterly growth was above 4% was in the Q3-2014 when it hit 5.2%.  On annual basis, economists need to go way back to 1991 when it reached 4.7% & even further, back to the 1980s, for stronger growth. In 1984 GDP hit 7.3% on an annual basis.

Larry Kudlow: 2Q GDP could be a ‘very good number’


Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on said the Trump administration is turning all of its attention to Mexico to quickly renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).  Pres Trump, in a letter replying to Mexico's pres-elect on Tues, called for a speedy deal that would lead to more jobs on both sides of the border.  Trump has viewed the free trade pact as a deal that benefits Mexico more than the US.  Ross said the administration expects to get something worked out in the next few months.  “The new president [of Mexico] very quickly appointed the team that will do the trade negotiations for him, has made very clear he wants to get a deal done and he did all this without even waiting for his inauguration,” Ross said.  “He will be inaugurated on the first of December and it looks pretty clear that his goal would be to try to get something resolved between the United States and Mexico prior to even his inauguration.”  Mexican & Canadian officials yesterday insisted that NAFTA should remain a trilateral agreement, even though Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on auto imports.  But Ross said the administration is taking a bilateral approach.  “The immediate focus is much more on Mexico,” he added.  “The issues there are more complex and we think we can get very good progress very quickly.”

US-Mexico trade deal may be close to completion, Wilbur Ross


Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he's "closely monitoring" the weakening in the Chinese currency.  "What I've said over the last week [is] we are obviously closely monitoring the Chinese rmb and the weakening in that market," Mnuchin said.  He added that the administration is looking at other currencies as well.  "The long-term strength of the dollar is important. It's the result of a very strong U.S. economy," Mnuchin continued.  "But we will closely monitor, as we do in the Treasury, currency manipulation across lots of different markets. And make sure people don't use currency for unfair trade advantages."  The yuan, also called the renminbi, was at 6.77 per $, down about 0.15%.  China's currency has been sliding since mid-Jun amid an escalating trade war between the US & China.  It bumped around at higher levels from Feb thru May.  Mnuchin has said the yuan's weakness would be reviewed as part of the Treasury's semi-annual report on currency manipulation.  The report, due Oct 15, will be based on activity for the first 6 months of 2018.  Pres Trump has accused China & the EU of manipulating their currencies, saying it is "taking away our big competitive edge."

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says he's 'closely monitoring' the weakening in the Chinese currency

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose from a more than 48-year low last week, but continued to point to a tightening labor market.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 9K to a seasonally adjusted 217K for the week ended Jul 21, the Labor Dept said.  Claims dropped to 208K during the prior week, the lowest reading since 1969.  The forecast called for claims rising to 215K.  Claims data tends to be volatile around this time of the year when motor vehicle manufacturers shut assembly lines for annual retooling.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2K to 218K last week, the lowest reading since mid-May. The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 8K to 1.75M  in the latest week & the 4-week moving average of continuing claims rose 9K to 1.75M.  The continuing claims data covered the week of the household survey from which the Jul unemployment rate will be derived.  The 4-week average of continuing claims rose by 25K between the Jun & Jul survey periods suggesting little change in the unemployment rate.  The jobless rate rose two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.0% in Jun as more Americans entered the labor force, in a sign of confidence in the labor market.  The labor market is viewed as being near or at full employment.  Employment gains averaged 215K jobs per month in H1.

US jobless claims rebound from a more than 48 1/2-year low

Comcast (CMCSA) reported mixed quarterly results, beating estimates on earnings but falling short on revenue  & posted a big beat on high-speed internet adds.  Here's how results compared with predictedions:
  • EPS: 65¢ vs 60¢ forecast
  • Revenue: $21.74B vs $21.86B forecast
  • Net increase of 260K high-speed internet customers vs. 195K forecast

The company continues to add high-speed internet customers, though, blowing projections out of the water in Q2.  CEO Brian Roberts said the 260K net new internet customers is the highest 2nd-qtr result in a decade.  "As more people rely on faster and faster broadband and more capacity, that gave us a marvelous opportunity to make investments, to take the innovation machinery that our engineers and technology team have built and repurpose them partially to focus on innovation around broadband," Roberts added.  In Q1, CMCSA saw a revenue boost from NBC's coverage of the 2018 Winter Olympics & the Super Bowl.  Revenue from the company's NBCUniversal segment, absent those one-time boosts, was flat in the 2nd qutr.  The company also reported record-setting coverage for Telemundo, as it presented the FIFA World Cup for the first time.  2nd qtr revenue represents a 2% year-over-year increase & EPS jumped 25% from the year-ago period.  The stock  rose 1.33.
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Comcast posts mixed quarterly results, big beat on internet customer adds

The trade gap widened in Jun as a one-time to boost to inventories ahead of the introduction of tariffs faded.  The Commerce Dept reported a 5.5% widening of the US goods trade deficit to $68.3B.  It also reported no change to both wholesale & retail inventories during the month.  In May, companies raced to ship agricultural products, namely soybeans, ahead of tariffs that China was readying in response to the levies the US was imposing on a range of Chinese goods.  After a 14.1% surge in the export of foods, feeds & beverages, exports of those products fell 0.5% in Jun.  Consumer goods exports fell 8.6% & vehicle exports sank 6.1%.  While exports in total fell 1.5%, imports rose 0.6%, helped by rising demand for consumer goods & vehicles.  The advanced report doesn’t include data on services, for which the US is a net exporter.

Trade gap widens in June as tariff boost to exports fades


NAZ tumbled, thanks to a very disappointing earnings from from Facebook (FB) which brought selling in the tech sector.  FB finished down almost 40, making for one unusually ugly day.  Techs shares have been bid up on the basis of "the sky is the limit."  Today was the day of reckoning.  Regular stocks, reflected to some degree in the Dow, had a good day, but not spectacular.  The mood to sell stocks affected them all.  The rest of the market has a lot to deal with, starting with trade issues.  There seems to be some progress this week, but a lot of unknowns still remain starting with China.  Dow is up almost 1K YTD, but still off around 1K from the Jan 26 record.  If selling pressure continues for those sexy tech stocks, further advances in the Dow are cloudy.  The good number for GDP tomorrow could be juiced up by added business trying to beat high tariffs hitting with full force.  Replicating that growth could be uncertain in Q3.

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