Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Markets surge on strong earnings

Dow soared 224, advancers over decliners a relatively mild 3-2 & NAZ advanced 71 to another record as it nears 8K.  The MLP index went up 2+ to the 274s & the REIT index fell to to the 347s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries fluctuated.  Oil gained to the high 68s & depressed gold added to 1227.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil68.26
+0.37+0.6%

GC=FGold  1,228.40
+2.80+0.2%






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Amid rising trade tensions, Pres Trump praised tariffs – calling them the “greatest” – ahead of a meeting with European Union officials in DC.  “Tariffs are the greatest! Either a country which has treated the United States unfairly on Trade negotiates a fair deal, or it gets hit with Tariffs. It’s as simple as that - and everybody’s talking! Remember, we are the “piggy bank” that’s being robbed. All will be Great!” Trump tweeted.  The pres is scheduled to meet with the EU Commission Pres Jean-Claude Juncker & European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmstrom tomorrow to discuss trade relations.  The US has imposed tariffs on steel & aluminum imports from the world's largest trading bloc & most recently threatened to place levies on cars & auto parts made in the EU & brought to America.  In response to the metal tariffs, the EU placed their own fees on US products.  “Countries that have treated us unfairly on trade for years are all coming to Washington to negotiate. This should have taken place many years ago but, as the saying goes, better late than never!” Trump tweeted today.  Malmstrom, tweeted, said she & Juncker were meeting with Trump to “de-escalate” the trade situation & believes the bloc should work together with the US to address “global steel overcapacity” & reform related to the World Trade Organization.

Trump calls tariffs 'the greatest', ahead of meeting with EU trade officials


Stocks opened higher as a stream of overall, positive earnings reports overshadowed geopolitical tensions.  Tech stocks were climbing, getting a boost from Google's (GOOGL) positive Q2 results, which the company released after hours yesterday.  US stocks ended flat yesterday, as traders waded thru the latest earnings reports & while geopolitical concerns once again entered the spotlight.  The Dow fell 13 (0.1%) to 25,044 & the S&P 500 added 5 (0.2%) to 2806.  The NAZ gained 21 (0.3%) to close at 7841.  Overseas, stocks climbed after China said it would use fiscal action to support its economy.  The decision comes amid a trade war with the US.  Commodities were mostly higher following yesterday's downbeat session.

Stocks higher following barrage of earnings reports

Iran's foreign ministry reportedly said it would implement countermeasures against the US if it tries to block its oil exports.  "If America wants to take a serious step in this direction it will definitely be met with a reaction and equal countermeasures from Iran," Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi said.  Qassemi didn't detail what Iran could do but the comment comes as the US presses its allies to stop importing oil from Iran ahead of sanctions that are due to be reinstated on the country in Aug & Nov.  Iranian Pres Hassan Rouhani suggested Sun that Iran could close the Straits of Hormuz, a channel that leads out of the Persian Gulf & through which much of the Middle East's oil is shipped & exported.  The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) identifies the Strait of Hormuz as one of 7 major “maritime chokepoints” that are “critical to global energy security.”  By volume of oil transit, the strait is in fact the busiest chokepoint.  In 2016, data from the EIA showed total flows thru the channel reached a record high of 18.5M barrels a day.  China, Japan, India, South Korea  & Singapore are the largest destinations for oil moving through the strait.  Thus, closing the channel would have dramatic consequences for Iran, oil-importing countries & the entire industry “Disruptions to these routes could affect oil prices n& add thousands of miles of transit in alternative routes,” the EIA said, warning about what would happen if these chokepoints were disrupted.  “International energy markets depend on reliable transport routes. Blocking a chokepoint, even temporarily, can lead to substantial increases in total energy costs and world energy prices. Chokepoints also leave oil tankers vulnerable to theft from pirates, terrorist attacks, political unrest in the form of wars or hostilities, and shipping accidents that can lead to disastrous oil spills.” 
Only Saudi Arabia & the UAe have pipelines that can ship crude oil outside of the Persian Gulf & have additional pipeline capacity to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran reportedly threatens ‘countermeasures’ if US blocks its oil exports

Lockheed Martin's (LMT) F-35 jet demand once again helpetd the company beat expectations for quarterly profit as the weapons maker raised its forecast for the rest of the year.  The Pentagon'' #1 weapons supplier raised its 2018 net sales forecast to $51.60-53.10B from $50.35-51.85B.  Full-year EPS is now expected to be $16.75-17.05, compared with its earlier estimate of $15.80-16.10.  Revenue from tis missiles & fire control business, which makes PAC-3 missiles, rose 16.9% to $2.09B.  The PAC-3 is the interceptor in the Patriot missile system.  In late Mar, Poland signed its largest arms procurement deal in its history, a Patriot missile defense system for $4.75B.  The company's aeronautics business, which makes the stealthy F-35 fighter jet, posted a 8.1% rise in revenue to $5.32B.  EPS rose to $4.05 in Q2 from $3.28 per share a year earlier.  Net sales rose 6.6% to $13.40B.  Analysts were expecting adjusted EPS of $3.92 on revenue of $12.74.  The quarterly results included a charge of $96M related to severance & restructuring activities, which reduced net income by $76M (26¢ per share).  The stock rose only 53¢.
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Lockheed Martin beats profit estimates, raises 2018 forecast

Stocks are having a good day, primarily due to healthy earnings.  While the Dow is doing well, it's still close to the 24-25K rut its been stuck in for months.  Meanwhile NAZ is at new record levels thanks to earnings reports from tech giants.  However the dark cloud of trade talks are still in the sky

Dow Jones Industrials







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