Thursday, November 15, 2018

Lower markets on mixed economic data and earnings

Dow sank 152, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ went up 2.  The MLP index
& the REIT index slid back 1 to the 351s,  Junk bond funds declined & Treasuries were purchased again.  Oil climbed higher in the 66s & gold added 3 to 1213.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil56.70
+0.45+0.8%

GC=FGold   1,212.90
+2.80+0.2%







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Stocks fell, as traders digested Brexit concerns, the latest economic data & earnings.  The economic data released today was mixed, with the Philly Fed manufacturing index falling much more than expected to 12.9 in Nov from 22.2.   The forecast called for a reading of 20.  Oct retail sales were stronger than expected, while jobless claims edged higher but hovered near historic lows.  The headlines out of the UK continue to dampen investors' risk appetite.  The latest development was the resignation of UK's Brexit minister & Theresa May faces the prospect of a no-confidence vote, which could trigger an election.   It was another wild ride for equities on yesterday as the Dow clawed back from a loss of about 350 points, finishing the session down 205.  Apple (AAPL) shares, nearing a bear market, fell nearly 3%, dragging the NAZ down 64 (about 1%).  As for the broader S&P dipped, after Rep. Maxine Waters said she would likely end Pres Trump's rollback of regulations for financial institutions as she prepares to become Chair of the House Financial Services Committee following the midterm election swing which left.

Stocks lower on Brexit concerns

Walmart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported mixed Q3 results, with earnings that topped expectations & revenue that fell short due to currency headwinds.  Earnings were fueled by strong e-commerce sales, as the company continues to gobble up online brands like apparel and home goods, while also scaling its grococratery business.  The retailer raised its forecast for earnings & same-store sales in the US for the full year, expecting a strong holiday season.  “We have momentum in the business as we execute our plan and benefit from a favorable economic environment in the U.S.,” CEO Doug McMillon said.  WMT reported EPS of 58¢, the same as last year.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was $1.08, 7¢ ahead of expectations.  Revenue climbed 1.4% to $124.9B from $123.2B a year ago, falling short of expectations for $125.6B.  Excluding impacts from currency, revenue was $126.1B.  Sales at stores in the US open for at least 12 months were up 3.4%, better than growth of 3.1% expected.  Traffic at stores was up 1.2% during the qtr, with the average  ticket up 2.2%.  CFO Brett Biggs said grocery helped fuel those results, as the company now has a grocery pick-up option at roughly 2100 stores across the UA & grocery delivery at about 600 locations.  Online sales were up 43% during  Q3 & the company is still on track to meet its goal of 40% e-commerce sales growth for the full year.  A year ago, digital sales climbed 50%, as the company just started to lap its acquisition of Jet.com.  Especially ahead of the holidays this year, WMT has been focused on expanding its merchandise assortment online.  One way it’s doing this is by acquiring digital brands, including most recently plus-sized fashion retailer Eloquii & intimates company Bare Necessities.  The head of the US e-commerce business, Marc Lore, recently said WMT could one day own more than 40 of these e-commerce retailers.  WMT is expected to take 4% of US e-commerce sales (roughly $20.9B).  Looking to the full year, WMT now expects same-store sales in the U.S. to rise “at least” 3%, compared with a previous outlook of “about” 3%.  It says adjusted EPS will be $4.75-4.85, up from a prior range of $4.65-4.80.  Intl sales fell 2.6% during Q3 to $28.8B , partly due to the company selling a majority of its Brazilian business to private-equity firm Advent Intl.  WMT said same-store sales were positive in 9 out of 10 markets where it operates overseas.  The stock dropped 2.53.  If you would like to learn more about WMT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WMT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Walmart posts mixed quarter but raises forecast, expecting strong holiday

US retail sales rebounded sharply in Oct as purchases of motor vehicles & building materials surged, likely driven by rebuilding efforts in areas devastated by Hurricane Florence.  The Commerce Dept said retail sales increased 0.8% last month also as households bought electronics & appliances.  Data for Sep was revised down to show retail sales slipping 0.1% instead of nudging up 0.1% previously reported.  The forecast called for retail sales increasing 0.5% in Oct.  Retail sales in Oct rose 4.6% from a year ago.  Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials & food services, retail sales increased 0.3% last month.  These core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP.  Data for Sep was revised lower to show core retail sales rising 0.3% instead of gaining 0.5% as previously reported.  A strong labor market, characterized by a 3.7% unemployment rate, is underpinning consumer spending.  The lowest unemployment rate in nearly 49 years is boosting wages, with annual wage growth recording its biggest increase in 9½ years in Oct.  The retail sales report suggested consumer spending retained most of its strong momentum at the start of Q4, likely keeping the economy on a strong growth path, despite the trade deficit expected to deteriorate further & the housing market continuing to weaken.  Consumer spending, which accounts for more 2/3 of economic activity, grew at its fastest pace in nearly 4 years in Q3.  The economy grew at a 3.5% annualized rate in the Jul-Sep qtr.  Oct's strength in retail sales bodes well ahead of the holiday shopping season.  The Commerce Dept said it could not isolate the impact of Hurricane Florence, which lashed North & South Carolina in mid-Sep, on retail sales.  However, auto sales jumped 1.1% last month likely as residents in the affected areas replaced damaged cars.  Auto sales fell 0.1% in Sep.  Sales at building material stores surged 1.0%, probably boosted by rebuilding efforts in areas affected by Florence.  Sales at clothing stores gained 0.5% after climbing 0.8% in Sep.  Online & mail-order sales rose 0.4% in Oct after rising 1.3% in the prior month.  Receipts at furniture stores fell 0.3% & receipts at service stations rose 3.5%, likely reflecting higher gasoline prices.  Spending at hobby, musical instrument & book stores rose 0.5% last month.  But spending at restaurants & bars slipped 0.2% after dropping 1.5% the prior month.

US retail sales rebound sharply in October

US import prices increased more than expected in Oct, boosted by a surge in petroleum & food prices, but underlying imported inflation pressures remained tame amid a strong $.  The Labor Dept said import prices rose 0.5% last month after a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in Sep.  The forecast called for import prices gaining 0.1% in Oct after a previously reported 0.5% increase in Sep.  In the 12 months thru Oct, import prices advanced 3.5% after rising 3.1% in Sep.  Last month, prices for imported fuels & lubricants jumped 3.3% after rising 0.7% in Sep.  Food prices surged 2.2% in Oct after rising 2.0% in the prior month.  Excluding fuels & food, import prices fell 0.1% last month after declining by the same margin in Sep.  Core import prices advanced 0.7% in the 12 months thru Oct.  The monthly drop in core import prices likely reflects the strong $, which has gained about 8.1% this year against the currencies of the US' main trade partners.  The report also showed export prices rose 0.4% in Oct after being unchanged in Sep.  Prices for agricultural products fell for 2nd straight month.  Export prices increased 3.1% on a year-on-year basis in Oct after rising 2.7% in Sep.

US import prices increase more than expected in October

Stocks are back to stumbling around.  WMT earnings were so-so & a lack of progress in Brexit is unsettling.  More meddling in the economy by the new congress is another drag on investor sentiment.  The Dow is under 25K again which will be a negative signal if it closes at that level.

Dow Jones Industrials








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