Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Markets rise as midterm elections begin

Dow went up 85 after yesterday's big gain, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ gained 37.  The MLP index fell 1 to 254 & the REIT index jumped up 5+ to the 445s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were steady.  Oil continued weak, sliding lower in the 62s, & gold gave back 1 to 1231.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil63.04
-0.06-0.1%

GC=FGold   1,231.80
-0.50-0.0%






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Stocks rose as Americans headed to the polls in a highly contested election that could see the House flip from Rep to Dem.  All 435 seats in the House & 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested.  In addition, 39 state & territorial governorships, as well as numerous other state & local elections, will also be contested.   Yesterday, Stocks posted a mixed session.  The Dow surged 190 late in the session (nearly 1%) & the S&P 500 also posted a gain of 15 (0.6%).  But the NAZ fell 28 (0.4%) with large-cap tech names pacing the declines.  The US also put oil & financial sanctions against Iran back in effect.  The move is to curb Iran's missile & nuclear programs & counter its growing military & political influence in the Middle East.

Stocks rise as midterm election begins


Eli Lilly (LLY) topped estimates for Q3 profit & raised its yearly earnings target, led by stronger demand for its newer drugs such as diabetes treatment Trulicity & psoriasis medicine Taltz.  Trulicity, which overtook diabetes drug Humalog as its best-selling medicine earlier this year, had revenue of $816M, up 55% from a year earlier.  The result also exceeded a Wall Street consensus estimate of $801M.  Meanwhile, sales of Humalog dipped 4.5% & fell short of expectations.  LLY is a leading developer of diabetes treatments, but its older drugs such as Humalog have faced rising competition, forcing the company to invest in newer diabetes drugs like Trulicity.  Taltz made sales of $264M, above the $252M expected.  LLY raised its 2018 adjusted EPS forecast to $5.55-5.60, from $5.40-5.50.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was $1.39 per share, above the estimate of $1.35.  Revenue rose about 7% to $6.06B, edging past expectations of $6.05B.  The stock  dropped 4.54.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LLY?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Drugmaker Lilly's 3Q profit more than doubles


The level of job openings in the US edged lower in Sep but was still well ahead of the total number of people looking for work, the Labor Dept said.  Vacancies edged lower to just over 7M, according to the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).  The report measures the level of employment vacancies as well as those who have left their positions.  The previous count, for Aug, showed a record high of 7.3M openings, a number revised higher in this report.  The estimates pointed to a slight decrease for Sep, but still at 7.1M.  Despite the decrease, the level of openings still dwarfed the level of those considered unemployed, which was just under 6M for Sep.  The ranks of the unemployed moved up to 6.08M in Oct, but the corresponding JOLTS data won't be released until next month.  In addition to the decline in job vacancies, the “quits” rate, which measures those who left their jobs voluntarily & is seen as a sign of worker confidence, declined a bit from 3.65M to 3.6M.  However, the quits rate, which compares those who left their jobs as a percentage of total employment, held at 2.4%.  Geographically, the quits rate rose one-tenth of a point in both the Northeast & South, to 1.7% & 2.9% respectively, fell substantially in the West from 2.5% to 2.2% & edged lower in the Midwest from 2.6% to 2.5%.  The latest JOLTS report comes amid a tightening labor market that features a brisk pace of hiring & the best wage gains since the post-recession recovery began in mid-2009.  Nonfarm payrolls rose 250K in Oct while average hourly earnings jumped 3.1% on a year-over-year basis.  Conditions in Sep remained tight, with 188K fewer vacancies in the private sector & a drop of 96K openings for gov jobs.  Health care & social assistance saw the biggest increase, with 71K, while professional & business services saw a decline of 118K & finance lost 82K.  Total hires also bounced lower off a record Aug, declining from 5.9M to 5.74M.  Separations, which combines quits & fires, fell from 5.78M to 5.67M.

Job openings slip to 7 million in September, still near record high

Christmas holiday retail sales in the US are expected to climb above the $1T mark for the first time this year, on the back of low unemployment, solid income growth & higher consumer confidence.  Total retail sales should hit $1.002T during the holiday period, spanning Nov 1 - Dec 31 this year, an increase of almost 6% from the previous year, marking the “strongest growth since 2011,” data from market research firm eMarketer showed.  The report comes amid concerns over the future of brick-&-mortar retailers.  Several retailers are closing hundreds of stores across the country as the threat of increased competition from e-commerce firms continue to put pressure on the industry.  The research said the sector would see a 4.4% gain year-on-year in in-store sales, rising to $878B & that brick-&-mortar would be a “bright spot” for the retail industry as a whole for the 2018 Christmas holiday period.  “While e-commerce will continue to see strong double-digit gains, brick-and-mortar retail should be a particular bright spot this holiday season,” eMarketer said.  “Not every brick-and-mortar retailer is thriving, and several have shut their doors this year, but others are really capitalizing on the strong consumer economy. Retailers are luring in shoppers with remodeled stores, streamlined checkout and options to buy online, pick up in-store.”  E-commerce continues to grow in market share, however, & should capture 12.3% of the total sales figure this year.   Online retail sales are predicted to rise 16.6% from the previous year, to $124B, the study said.

US Christmas sales predicted to surpass $1 trillion for the first time this year

With many elections sooo close, traders are watching news to get hints about results.  Buyers have the upper hand today & that should continue in the PM.  Tomorrow, after results are reported, will be another story.

Dow Jones Industrials








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