Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Markets waver as Apple stock is hit with selling

Dow fell 9, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ slid back 6.  The MLP index was fractionally higher in the 247s & the REIT index hardly budged.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were a tad lower.  Oil finally rebounded 1+ to the 57s (after 12 straight declines) & gold was about even at 1201.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil56.93
+1.24 +2.2%

GC=FGold   1,202.30
+0.90  +0.1%







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Equities rose as investors digested the latest earnings reports while oil futures were also higher, attempting to rebound a day after the commodity fell 7% to a one-year low.  Earnings were once again in focus today.  Macy's (M), the department store chain, said sales & profit as well as same-store sales, surged in Q3 on strong digital revenue & improved brick-&-mortar performance.  The company, which also boosted its EPS outlook by 15¢, reported net sales of $5.4B, up from $5.28B in the year-earlier qtr & EPS of 27¢, up from 21¢.  In terms of economic data, investors will get another check on inflation with the Oct consumer price report.  Stocks ended mixed following a volatile session yesterday.  The S&P 500 & NAZ were little changed, while the Dow fell 100 (0.4%).  Investors honed in on some positive comments on US-China talks, according to top White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow.  In commodities, oil continued its losing streak now the worst on record.  A report from OPEC showed combined output from the group & Russia offset losses from Iranian sanctions.  WTI crude, which measures the US market, closed around $55 per barrel falling 7% to a one year low.

Stocks, oil attempt rebound

US consumer prices increased by the most in 9 months in Oct amid gains in the cost of gasoline & rents, pointing to steadily rising inflation that likely will keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates again next month.  The Labor Dept said its Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month after edging up 0.1% in Sep.  In the 12 months thru October, the CPI increased 2.5%, picking up from Sep's 2.3% rise.  Excluding the volatile food 2 energy components, the CPI climbed 0.2%.  Core CPI had gained 0.1% for 2 straight months.  In the 12 months thru October, core CPI increased 2.1% after advancing 2.2 percent in Sep%.  The forecast called for the CPI climbing 0.3% & core CPI gaining 0.2% in Oct.  Treasury yields briefly declined before turning higher after the data while the $ held its losses against a basket of currencies.  Inflation pressures are building, partly driven by the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 49 years & strong domestic demand.  Annual wage growth recorded its largest increase in 9½ years in Oct.  The Fed, which has a 2% inflation target, tracks a different measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food & energy, for monetary policy.  The core PCE price index has increased 2.0% for 5 straight months.  Food prices fell 0.1% after being unchanged in Sep.  Food consumed at home declined for a 2nd straight month in Oct.  Food prices were held down by cheaper bread, cereals, pork, dairy products, fruits & vegetables.  Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would pay to rent or receive from renting a home, rose 0.3% in Oct after advancing 0.2 percent in the prior month.  The rent index gained 0.2%.  Healthcare costs increased 0.2% last month after a similar gain in Sep.  Apparel prices edged up 0.1% after jumping 0.9% in Sep.  There were also increases in the costs of household furnishings & used motor vehicle & trucks as well as motor vehicle insurance & tobacco.  But prices for new motor vehicles dropped 0.2% last month.  Communications costs fell as did prices for recreation & personal care products.

US consumer prices post the largest increase in 9 months

The White House is delaying auto tariffs while it puts together a report on the impact that imported vehicles have on national security, according to leakers.  Trump administration officials met yesterday to discuss the draft that stems from a Commerce Dept investigation into the matter.  The final report is likely to undergo changes before Pres Trump orders the duties.  The pres has threatened to slap 25% levies on imported autos, light trucks, vans, SUVs & parts.  Automakers including big US names like Ford (F) & General Motors (GM) worry that the tariffs will increase costs by nearly $7K for imports & more than $2K even for domestically produced vehicles.  If the tariffs are implemented, they would come under the same provisions that allowed the administration to hit imported steel & aluminum with duties earlier in the year.  The administration also has slapped tariffs on $200B worth of various Chinese imports.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross must deliver the report to Trump by Feb.  The pres then will have 90 days to weigh whether the imports are a national security threat & should be subject to tariffs.

White House likely to hold off on auto tariffs for now

Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, shares were downgraded by an analyst who predicted a 5% decline in iPhone units sold in 2019.  The firm also said rising prices would not be enough to offset that decline in sales.  Another analyst cut his iPhone sales estimates & stock price target, citing supplier warnings & overseas sales pressures because of the rising $.  AAPL shares dropped by 5% on Mon alone after one of its suppliers, Lumentum (LITE), said one of its largest customers reduced shipments.  The company makes 3D sensing lasers used in AAPL's FaceID technology.  That raised concerns iPhone sales are weakening.  AAPL began the month by reporting iPhone shipments that missed expectations for the qtr.  The company also said it would no longer break out sales figures for iPhone units.  The stock, which is down 12% this month, fell again today as most of the rest of technology sector traded positively.  The stock is down 3+ to 189.
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Apple downgraded, more iPhone estimates cut as Street starts to turn on the stock

Stocks began the day higher, but selling resumed in the first hour of trading.  AAPL downgrades hurt the stock which impacts the Dow & NAZ.  This month AAPL is already down a huge 30.  Macy's (M) with a good earnings report is down 1+.  There may also be nervousness about what the Dems will do when they take over the house in Jan.  The Dow is hanging in a little above the 25K, is an important technical support level

Dow Jones Industrials









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