Monday, November 12, 2018

Market plunge led by tech stocks

Dow sank a huge 602 (closing at the lows), decliners over advancers more than 5-2 & NAZ tumbled 206.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 351s & the REIT index fluctuated.  Junk bond funds were lower & Treasuries continued steady.  Oil dropped to the 59s extending its bear market rout (more below) & gold lost 6, falling to 1202.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!





The Dow slid 400 in a volatile & light trading session due to the Veterans Day holiday.  Dow members Apple (AAPL), Goldman Sachs (GS) & Facebook (FB) paced the declines. AAPL supplier Lumentum (LIKE), which provides iPhone parts, cut is Q2 forecast which pressured the stock in early trading.  AAPL shares fell below the $200 per share level.  GS is on pace for the largest percent drop since Jun of 2016.  Oil saw modest gains after OPEC signaled it was mulling a production cut after oil entered a bear market last week, falling 20% from its high.  WTI crude is trading around the $60 level.  The bond market is closed for trading.  Stocks fell across the board Fri with 8 of the 10 S&P sectors down led by technology & consumer discretionary names.  The Dow dropped over 201 & the NAZ 123.  The S&P 500 fell 2525.  In Asian markets today,  China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.2% & Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the day up 0.1%.  Japan's Nikkei ended the day up 0.1%.  In Europe, London's FTSE traded lower by 0.2%, Germany's DAX  fell 0.9% & France’s CAC declined 0.3%.

Apple, Facebook lead stock selloff, Dow falls 400 points


Chinese Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need for free trade today, as he drew similarities between his country & Singapore, a bustling regional hub.  "China and Singapore have a special cooperative relationship because there are profound cultural and people-to-people exchanges between us," Li said.  "We both safeguard multilateralism and free trade. We also keep the peace and stability in the South China Sea," he added.  Li is on an official visit to Singapore where he is to deliver a lecture on Singapore-China relations & regional development, & participate in a summit of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.  China is locked in a simmering trade dispute with the US, which accuses it of violating its market-opening obligations & the 2 countries have imposed tariffs on B$s of each other's goods.  Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong noted that exactly 40 years had passed since then Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping visited the city-state.  The countries have worked together on a string of projects since then, including the Suzhou Industrial Park & the Tianjin Eco-city, he said.  Lee added that China and ASEAN "share a common interest in upholding an open, rules-based multilateral order."  "Singapore & China are like-minded partners in many areas even though we have different circumstances and constraints," he added.  "But I believe we can continue to tap into our complementary strengths, deepen cooperation and make sure that our all-around cooperative partnership continues to progress with the times."  China & Singapore signed 11 memoranda of understanding today.  They upgraded a free trade agreement & stepped up cooperation in urban planning and development, among others.

Chinese premier urges guard of free trade on Singapore visit


Amazon (AMZN) shares dipped into bear market territory today as the e-commerce giant added to a 20% decline from all-time highs reached back in Sep.  At today's low of 1630, the stock had fallen 20.5% from an intraday high of 2050 per share, hit in early Sep.  AMZN, which had topped $1T in market cap is now worth $809B.  Almost 73% of the technology sector is in correction levels (10% off a security's 52-week high) or worse.  As the stock market resumes its sell-off, investors are taking profits on some of the most successful trades of the bull market.  26 of the 66 technology stocks in the S&P 500 are in bear market territory.  AMZN stock today finished down 75 to 1636.
If you would like to learn more about AMZN, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AMZN?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Amazon falls into bear market a little more than two months after hitting $1 trillion market cap

Pres Trump Mon tweeted that he hopes OPEC does not cut oil output, the same day Saudi Arabia's energy minister said the cartel & its allies may need to throttle back production by about 1M barrels per day.  "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!" he Twitted.  The tweet marks his latest attempt to influence OPEC policy on Twitter.  The pres has tweeted at the 15-nation producer group several times this year, blaming it for rising oil prices & ordering its members to take steps to tamp down the cost of crude.  Trump's latest broadside comes on the heels of a sharp pullback in oil prices that has seen US crude plunge into a bear market & post its longest losing streak in more 34 years.  Prices tumbled over the last 5 weeks as global equity markets sold-off, crude supplies rose & the outlook for growth in oil demand weakened.  The sudden reversal has forced OPEC & a group of crude exporters including Russia to rethink how they are managing the global oil market.  Yesterday, a committee representing the group said oil supply is growing faster than demand, suggesting the alliance may have to launch a fresh round of production cuts.  The same day, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al Falih said the kingdom's oil shipment would fall by 500K bpd in Dec.  Today, Falih told an oil conference in Abu Dhabi that technical analysis suggests "there will need to be a reduction of supply from October levels approaching a million barrels" from the alliance.  The oil producers began capping their output in Jan 2017 in order to end a global crude glut, a policy that succeeded in draining stockpiles & boosting prices.  The group agreed in Jun to restore some of that output as prices rose to 3½-year highs as the market braced for the renewal of US sanctions on Iran.  Trump began tweeting at OPEC in Apr, 2 months before the group's Jun oil policy meeting.  His latest tweet comes just weeks before the alliance's next gathering.  The Trump administration is largely relying on Saudi Arabia to continue hiking output in order to offset the impact of its sanctions on Iran, OPEC's 3rd biggest producer.  The sanctions have wiped out about 1M bpd of Iranian crude exports.  Energy analysts widely attribute this year's oil price rally to the sanctions.  Oil prices hit nearly 4-year highs last month as the administration's deadline for oil importers to cut off purchase from Iran approached.

Trump warns OPEC against cutting oil production: 'Prices should be much lower based on supply'

Oil prices turned negative amid a sell-off in the US stock market today, with US crude posting an 11th straight day of losses, its longest longest losing streak on record.  Crude futures looked set to break the streak earlier today after Saudi energy minister Khalid al Falih said OPEC & its allies may need to cut crude production by about 1M barrels per day to prevent the market from swinging into oversupply.  Yesterday, Falih said the kingdom's shipments would fall by 500K bpd in Dec.  West Texas Intermediate crude settled 26¢ lower at $59.93, falling deeper into bear market territory.  The contract has never fallen for 11 straight days since it began trading in NY more than 3 decades ago.  Brent crude was up 22¢ at $70.40 a barrel.  The intl benchmark for oil prices settled at $70.18 on Fri, its weakest closing price in 7 months.  Crude futures have pulled back sharply during the last 5 weeks, as oil got swept up in a broader market sell-off that saw investors shed risk assets in Oct.  Rising oil supplies from the US, OPEC & Russia along with forecasts for weaker-than-expected demand growth have kept pressure on the market.  Compounding concerns about demand, the $ hit a 16-month peak today.  Currency weakness in emerging markets, including India, has significantly increased the cost of crude in those countries.  A stronger greenback makes $-denominated oil more expensive to holders of other currencies.

US crude falls for an 11th straight day, posting its longest losing streak on record

San Francisco Fed Pres Mary Daly today said she backs the "gradual normalization of monetary policy" but pointed out that in one key area, the US is not at full employment.   Daly said the US prime-age labor-force participation lags other industrial nations, notably Canada, which she says is due to a lack of gov subsidies for childcare & parental leave policies.  She said research due for release tomorrow will show that women account for ¾ in the prime-age differential between the US & Canada.  "The Fed can help by making sure that the economy continues to grow, creating work opportunities for wide swaths of the population," she added.  Daly doesn't get a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee until 2021.

San Francisco Fed's Daly backs 'gradual normalization' as U.S. not at full employment


This turned out to be an ugly day highlighted by selling in tech shares, including the most famous companies.  They have powered the rally since late Jan & now profit taking it putting many into bear market territory.  Oil market in its own bear market is making matters worse.  The chart below show much of the recent run-up for the Dow has been given back.  A close by the Dow below 25K (less than 400 above that level) will be a negative signal for stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials








No comments: