Monday, November 5, 2018

Mixed markets while tech shares are sold

Dow rose 43, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ dropped a big 83.  The MLP index added 1+ to 252 & the REIT index fell 3+ to 340.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose bringing lower yields.  Oil went up in the 63s & gold was little changed at 1233.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil63.63
+0.49+0.8%



GC=FGold   1,233.50
+0.20+0.0%







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White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that Pres Trump is willing to make a trade deal with China, as long as certain conditions are met that will be fair to the US.  “President Trump told me he would make a deal with China, but it has to be a deal that is strong and in America’s interest,” Kudlow, who is the director of the National Economic Council, said.  “That’s his key point. We will work it out.”  As part of a broader trade agreement, China may reportedly buy oil from the US instead of Iran.  “Any deal, which will take a while to put together, must be in America’s interests,” Kudlow added.  “And we have not heard from China, with respect to our asks. We have not yet heard their position. So we have got to wait on this.” Kudlow said that the administration will stand tough on Beijing, which has been accused of trying to steal US technology & intellectual property, & that Trump has spoken to Chinese Pres Xi Jinping, calling it a “positive” phone call.  Trump is scheduled to meet his Chinese counterpart at the Group of 20 summit (G20) in Argentina on Nov 30 – Dec 1.

Trump could make China trade deal; US interests a priority: Larry Kudlow


The Trump administration renewed sanctions against hundreds of entities throughout Iran's economy, promising to exert more pressure on the Islamic Republic.  “The Iranian regime has a choice. It can either do a 180-degree turn from its outlaw course of action and act like a normal country or it can see its economy crumble,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said.  A new round of punishing sanctions on Iran's energy, banking & shipping sectors went into force overnight.  The list targets more than 700 entities, including individuals, banks, aircraft & vessels.  Pres Trump announced in May the US was withdrawing from a 2015 accord with Iran, which lifted wide-ranging sanctions on the Iranian economy in return for Tehran's agreement to allow inspections of its nuclear installations.  Trump, who called the Obama era deal a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made,”  gave foreign companies 90-180 days to wind down their business with Iran.  The 180-day period came to a close this week, restoring a heavier slate of sanctions on Iran than a first round that went into effect after the 90-day grace period.  The latest round largely targets oil exports from Iran, OPEC's 3rd-largest crude producer.  Pompeo released a list of countries that can continue importing Iranian oil for the time being, including Iran’s top 2 customers, China & India.  Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & Turkey are also on the list.  The waivers will allow them to reduce their purchases over the coming weeks & months.  The actions designate 50 Iranian banks & their subsidiaries, more than 200 individuals & vessels in Iran’s energy & shipping sector & an Iranian airline & its 65 aircraft.  “Treasury’s imposition of unprecedented financial pressure on Iran should make clear to the Iranian regime that they will face mounting financial isolation and economic stagnation until they fundamentally change their destabilizing behavior,” Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.  “The maximum pressure exerted by the United States is only going to mount from here. We are intent on making sure the Iranian regime stops siphoning its hard currency reserves into corrupt investments and the hands of terrorists.”

Trump administration to Iran on sanctions: Act like a normal country or see economy 'crumble'

US services expanded in Oct more than anticipated as economic growth remained hot, according to a report today.  The ISM non-manufacturing index registered 60.3% in Oct, above the 59.3 expected.  “The non-manufacturing sector has again reflected strong growth despite a slight cooling off after a record month in September,” ISM chair Anthony Nieves said.  The index jumped to 61.6 in Sep, which was its fastest expansion on record.  The data release also came after ADP & Moody's Analytics reported on Wed better-than-expected payrolls creation for Oct.  The 2 firms said= private companies added 227K payrolls last month.

October service sector growth strong as economy remains hot

With the elections tomorrow, traders are nervous about the outcome.  Economic data continues very strong but trade relations, especially with China & Iran, are weighing on investor sentiment.  The NAZ is down almost 10% since the Sep close, not encouraging for the overall market!

Dow Jones Industrials








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