Thursday, November 21, 2019

Markets slide lower amid mixed signals on US-China trade talks

Dow fell 83, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ dropped 22.  The MLP index inched higher to the 199s & the REIT index was off 3+ to the 402s (still near record highs).  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries drifted lower in price..  Oil went up in the 57s after yesterday's advance & gold was off 6 to 1467.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil56.91
-0.20-0.4%

GC=FGold   1,467.40
-6.80-0.5%






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Stocks opened little changed after a report said China's chief trade negotiator has invited his American counterparts for a new round of talks.  The report comes after anoher report said that the phase one trade deal that Pres Trump had said he hoped to sign this month may not be completed this year as negotiators continue to wrestle over differences.  Commodities are mixed with gold down 0.3% at $1470 an ounce & West Texas Intermediate crude oil up 1.4% at $57.80 a barrel.  Treasuries were lower, running the yield on the 10-year note up 2.6 basis points to 1.764%.  In Asian trading, Hong Kong led the region with its benchmark Hang Seng index falling 1.6%, China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.3% & Japan's Nikkei gave up 0.5%.  In Europe, London's FTSE slipped 0.7%, Germany's DAX was off a tad & France's CAC was down 0.2%.

Stocks little changed after report says China wants new round of talks


A small but determined group of protesters remained holed up inside a Hong Kong university campus as the city's largest pro-Beijing political party urged voters to “kick out the black force” in upcoming elections seen as a key gauge of public support for anti-gov protests.  At least a few dozen protesters at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, that has been ringed by police for days, resisted pleas to surrender amid fears of being arrested.  They are the holdouts from a much larger group that occupied the campus after battling police over the weekend.  Some 1K protesters have either surrendered or been stopped while trying to flee.  The city's largest political party slammed the flareup in violence in the past week & urged 4.1M voters to use the ballot box this Sun to reject the "black force" that had thrown the semi-autonomous Chinese territory into unprecedented turmoil since Jun.  "The black force say they want to fight for freedom but now people cannot even express their views freely. We have even been stripped of our right to go to school and work," said Starry Lee, who heads the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment & Progress of Hong Kong.  Pressure ratcheted up on Hong Kong as US Congress approved legislation late yesterday to sanction officials who carry out human rights abuses & require an annual review of the favorable trade status that DC grants Hong Kong.  Another bill bans export of tear gas & other non-lethal tools to Hong Kong,  Pres Trump is expected to sign the bills into law, which is sure to anger China & jeopardize trade talks between the 2 economic giants.  "If the U.S. continues to make the wrong moves, China will be taking strong countermeasures for sure," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said.  "No one should underestimate China's determination to safeguard the interests of national sovereign security and development, to implement the 'one country, two systems' policy and to safeguard Hong Kong's prosperity and stability."  Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the US legislation was baseless & an unnecessary meddling into the city's affairs.  He urged he US to reconsider, warning it would also hurt the interest of more than 1K American businesses in Asia's top financial hub.

Chinese military stumped by a few dozen Hong Kong student protesters


China's top trade official has invited US negotiators to take part in a fresh round of face-to-face talks.  During a phone call thought to have been made late last week, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He reportedly invited US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to Beijing to sit down for further negotiations.  It was not clear whether US negotiators had accepted Liu's invitation.  However, the report said US trade officials were willing to meet with their Chinese counterparts.  The report comes shortly after US legislation on Hong Kong had threatened to derail trade discussions between the 2 large economies.  On yeserday, the House of Representatives passed 2 bills intended to support protesters in Hong Kong.  It prompted Beijing to accuse the US of interfering in domestic affairs.  Separately, trade experts & people close to the administration suggested that the completion of a limited trade agreement could be pushed into 2020.  The US & China have imposed tariffs on Bs of $s’ worth of each other’s goods since early 2018, battering financial markets, souring business & consumer sentiment.

China invited US negotiators to Beijing for another round of trade talks, report says

Macy's (M) reported its first same-store sales decline in 2 years, casting blame on warmer weather & weak traffic at some shopping malls.  Because of the poor results, the department store chain also slashed its full-year outlook.  CEO Jeff Gennette said the sales deceleration during the quarter was “steeper” than the company had anticipated, due, in part, to a warmer fall, weaker spending by intl tourists & “weaker than anticipated performance in lower tier malls.”  He said the company also experienced issues, albeit briefly, on its website during the period, “in preparation for the fourth quarter.”  Online sales growth slowed, as rivals were more competitive on pricing &d stole some share.  Looking to the full year, Macy's is calling for same-store sales, on an owned plus licensed basis, to be down by 1-1.5%.  Previously, it was expecting flat to a 1% gain.  It expects net sales to drop 2.5-2%.  A prior outlook was calling for net sales to be about flat.  Annual adjusted EPS are forecast to fall to $2.57-2.77, down from a prior forecast of $2.85-3.05.  Analysts had been calling for $2.80.  EPS during the qtr fell to a penny from 20¢ a year earlier.  Excluding one-time items, EPS was 7¢, better than the breakeven consensus of analysts.  Net sales fell to $5.17B from $5.4B a year earlier, missing expectations for $5.32B.  Sales online & at Macy's owned & licensed stores open for at least 12 months were down 3.5%, worse than the 1% decrease expected.  That also follows 7 consecutive qtrs of same-store sales gains.  The stock dropped 49¢.
If you would like to learn more about Macy's, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/M?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Macy’s shares fall on sales miss, retailer slashes outlook

Markets are adjusting to stalled US-China negotiations.  Buyers are staying home as the Dow is extending its losing streak to 3 days.  The bulls need to bring excitement to the stock market for buyers to return.

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