Dow dropped 112 (100 above session lows), decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ fell 43. The MLP index recovered 1+ to the 198s (stll very depressed) & the REIT index slid fractionally lower to the 406s. Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries remained higher in the PM. Oil shot up 1+ to 57 (more below) & gold was off only 1 to 1473.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The slowing Chinese economy may force Beijing to make a trade-war deal it doesn't want. China, the world's 2nd-largest economy, grew at a 6% rate in Q3, its slowest since recordkeeping began in 1993. Growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2020 as the trade war & growing debt levels curb it, the IMF said in its Oct 2019 World Economic Outlook. Chinese equity markets have been under pressure as well. The Shanghai Composite has fallen 11.1% since the US first announced tariffs affecting Chinese goods in Mar 2018. By comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 14.9%. The People's Bank of China has taken a variety of actions to combat the slump, including a reduction in 2 key interest rates this week. Today, the central bank lowered the loan prime rate, its official lending benchmark, for the first time in 4 years. A day earlier, it cut its 7-day repurchase rate. China's Ministry of Finance has called on the US to roll back tariffs, which now cover more than $350B of its exports, as part of a partial trade deal. Pres has ruled that out. Yesterday, the pres threatened to raise duties on Chinese goods if the 2 sides are unable to finalize an agreement. “China’s going to have to make a deal that I like,” Trump said. He added he would “raise tariffs even higher” if an agreement isn't reached. The pres has repeatedly said the strength of the US economy, which grew at 1.9% in Q3, bolsters his negotiating position. Other data, including recent surveys on the services sector, which makes up about 70% of the economy & retail sales showed the resilience of the economy.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve largely agreed during their 2-day meeting in Oct that another interest rate cut is not warranted, so long as the economy remains on its current path of growth. Minutes from the Oct 29-30 FOMC revealed that the current rate of 1.5-1.75% will likely "remain appropriate." Officials offered little guidance on what it would take for them to move rates again, after they voted to lower rates 3 times this year. “Most participants judged that the stance of policy, after a 25 basis point reduction at this meeting, would be well calibrated to support the outlook of moderate growth, a strong labor market and inflation near the committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective,” the Fed said. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a similar sentiment during congressional testimony last week, saying he believed the "current stance of monetary policy" is "likely to remain appropriate" unless economic conditions dramatically change. “Looking ahead, my colleagues and I see a sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective as most likely,” he added. “This favorable baseline partly reflects the policy adjustments that we have made to provide support for the economy.” Still, officials maintained that monetary policy is not on a preset course, noting that members will take into account changes in economic data & the general outlook. In Jul, the central bank first cut rates, ending an era of monetary policy tightening by policymakers, who had voted 9 times. as recently as Dec, since 2015 to hike rates. Powell has repeatedly positioned the cuts as a "mid-cycle adjustment" intended to insulate the economy against the US-China trade dispute & a global growth slowdown. The Fed has one more policy-setting meeting before the end of the year, on Dec10-11. Traders largely expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged until at least mid-2020.
Target (TGT), a Dividend Aristocrat, said the apparel category reaped the most “dramatic” market share gains in the latest qtr, when it reported earnings. Apparel sales were up more than 10%, which also helped strengthen profit margins. Clearly, its efforts to get back to being known as “cheap chic” are working. In the fashion department, it has refreshed stores to make individual brands look more like their own mini boutiques, with more mannequins & table displays showing off merchandise. It has launched dozens of in-house apparel brands over the past 3 years, such as “A New Day” for women, “Auden” for lingerie& Goodfellow & Co for men. They're all reasonably priced, with guys' winter sweaters selling for under $30 & a women’s party skirt for $27.99. Notably, TGT is succeeding at a time when others are struggling to sell clothes. Cornell said the anniversary collection's drop has been driving footsteps to stores, but overall the collection's contribution to apparel sales gains during the qtr was “really immaterial.” That should give investors even more reason to believe TGT's existing apparel brands have been & can keep, pulling their own weight. The stock shot up 15.58 (14%).
If you would like to larn more about TGT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TGT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Target’s apparel sales are on fire. And that’s bad news for everyone else
Oil futures finished higher, following a gov report that showed domestic crude supplies up a 4th straight week, but by less than the 6M-barrel jump reported by a trade group the day before. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude supplies rose 1.4M barrels last week. That followed increases in each of the past 3 weeks. The latest climb, however, was a bit smaller than the 1.6M-barrel rise expected. The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a climb of roughly 6M barrels. West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec delivery added $1.90 (3.4%) to settle at $57.11 a barrel, after settling below its 50-day moving average of $55.59 yesterday. The day's $ & percentage rise was the biggest since Nov 1. The Dec contract expired at today's settlement. WTI oil for Jan delivery, the new front-month contract, tacked on $1.66 (3%) to $57.01 a barrel. Jan Brent crude gained 1.49 (2.5%) to settle at $62.40 a barrel, following its 2.5% decline yesterday. Investors have been downbeat on crude as doubts about a phase-one trade agreement between the US & China, with a report that talks are hitting an impasse. A resolution on trade is expected to support higher demand for crude because tariff tensions between the world's largest economies is seen hurting global crowd & appetite for oil. There was a report today that trade experts & people close to the White House said that phase one of a trade agreement may not be reached until next year, as China pushes for more tariff rollbacks.
The stalled trade negotiations with China are watched closely by traders. However, there was selling following the release of Fed minutes from the Oct meeting.which suggested that interest rate cuts may be put on hold. Traders are addicted to lower interest rates & any thoughts suggesting otherwise make them nervous. Bigger picture is that markets need to rest after a 1700 rally in the Dow in the last couple of months.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The slowing Chinese economy may force Beijing to make a trade-war deal it doesn't want. China, the world's 2nd-largest economy, grew at a 6% rate in Q3, its slowest since recordkeeping began in 1993. Growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2020 as the trade war & growing debt levels curb it, the IMF said in its Oct 2019 World Economic Outlook. Chinese equity markets have been under pressure as well. The Shanghai Composite has fallen 11.1% since the US first announced tariffs affecting Chinese goods in Mar 2018. By comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 14.9%. The People's Bank of China has taken a variety of actions to combat the slump, including a reduction in 2 key interest rates this week. Today, the central bank lowered the loan prime rate, its official lending benchmark, for the first time in 4 years. A day earlier, it cut its 7-day repurchase rate. China's Ministry of Finance has called on the US to roll back tariffs, which now cover more than $350B of its exports, as part of a partial trade deal. Pres has ruled that out. Yesterday, the pres threatened to raise duties on Chinese goods if the 2 sides are unable to finalize an agreement. “China’s going to have to make a deal that I like,” Trump said. He added he would “raise tariffs even higher” if an agreement isn't reached. The pres has repeatedly said the strength of the US economy, which grew at 1.9% in Q3, bolsters his negotiating position. Other data, including recent surveys on the services sector, which makes up about 70% of the economy & retail sales showed the resilience of the economy.
China may be forced to accept Trump's ultimatum on trade deal
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve largely agreed during their 2-day meeting in Oct that another interest rate cut is not warranted, so long as the economy remains on its current path of growth. Minutes from the Oct 29-30 FOMC revealed that the current rate of 1.5-1.75% will likely "remain appropriate." Officials offered little guidance on what it would take for them to move rates again, after they voted to lower rates 3 times this year. “Most participants judged that the stance of policy, after a 25 basis point reduction at this meeting, would be well calibrated to support the outlook of moderate growth, a strong labor market and inflation near the committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective,” the Fed said. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a similar sentiment during congressional testimony last week, saying he believed the "current stance of monetary policy" is "likely to remain appropriate" unless economic conditions dramatically change. “Looking ahead, my colleagues and I see a sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective as most likely,” he added. “This favorable baseline partly reflects the policy adjustments that we have made to provide support for the economy.” Still, officials maintained that monetary policy is not on a preset course, noting that members will take into account changes in economic data & the general outlook. In Jul, the central bank first cut rates, ending an era of monetary policy tightening by policymakers, who had voted 9 times. as recently as Dec, since 2015 to hike rates. Powell has repeatedly positioned the cuts as a "mid-cycle adjustment" intended to insulate the economy against the US-China trade dispute & a global growth slowdown. The Fed has one more policy-setting meeting before the end of the year, on Dec10-11. Traders largely expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged until at least mid-2020.
Fed meeting notes preview possibility of future rate cuts
Target (TGT), a Dividend Aristocrat, said the apparel category reaped the most “dramatic” market share gains in the latest qtr, when it reported earnings. Apparel sales were up more than 10%, which also helped strengthen profit margins. Clearly, its efforts to get back to being known as “cheap chic” are working. In the fashion department, it has refreshed stores to make individual brands look more like their own mini boutiques, with more mannequins & table displays showing off merchandise. It has launched dozens of in-house apparel brands over the past 3 years, such as “A New Day” for women, “Auden” for lingerie& Goodfellow & Co for men. They're all reasonably priced, with guys' winter sweaters selling for under $30 & a women’s party skirt for $27.99. Notably, TGT is succeeding at a time when others are struggling to sell clothes. Cornell said the anniversary collection's drop has been driving footsteps to stores, but overall the collection's contribution to apparel sales gains during the qtr was “really immaterial.” That should give investors even more reason to believe TGT's existing apparel brands have been & can keep, pulling their own weight. The stock shot up 15.58 (14%).
If you would like to larn more about TGT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TGT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Target’s apparel sales are on fire. And that’s bad news for everyone else
Oil futures finished higher, following a gov report that showed domestic crude supplies up a 4th straight week, but by less than the 6M-barrel jump reported by a trade group the day before. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude supplies rose 1.4M barrels last week. That followed increases in each of the past 3 weeks. The latest climb, however, was a bit smaller than the 1.6M-barrel rise expected. The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a climb of roughly 6M barrels. West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec delivery added $1.90 (3.4%) to settle at $57.11 a barrel, after settling below its 50-day moving average of $55.59 yesterday. The day's $ & percentage rise was the biggest since Nov 1. The Dec contract expired at today's settlement. WTI oil for Jan delivery, the new front-month contract, tacked on $1.66 (3%) to $57.01 a barrel. Jan Brent crude gained 1.49 (2.5%) to settle at $62.40 a barrel, following its 2.5% decline yesterday. Investors have been downbeat on crude as doubts about a phase-one trade agreement between the US & China, with a report that talks are hitting an impasse. A resolution on trade is expected to support higher demand for crude because tariff tensions between the world's largest economies is seen hurting global crowd & appetite for oil. There was a report today that trade experts & people close to the White House said that phase one of a trade agreement may not be reached until next year, as China pushes for more tariff rollbacks.
Oil prices settle about 3% higher as U.S. crude supplies rise less than expected
The stalled trade negotiations with China are watched closely by traders. However, there was selling following the release of Fed minutes from the Oct meeting.which suggested that interest rate cuts may be put on hold. Traders are addicted to lower interest rates & any thoughts suggesting otherwise make them nervous. Bigger picture is that markets need to rest after a 1700 rally in the Dow in the last couple of months.
Dow Jones Industrials
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