Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Mixed markets with averages essentially at records

Dow went up 10, advancers slightly ahead of decliners & NAZ slid back 5.  The MLP index dropped 2+ to the 216s & the REIT index sank 7+ to the 401s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were heavily sold.  Oil rose to the 57s & gold plunged 23 to 1487

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil57.21
 +0.67+1.2%

GC=FGold   1,496.20
-14.90 -1.0%






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The Dow opened at a record high as upbeat comments from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross about comments in trade talks with China helped to raise sentiment.  Ross said that the “phase one” trade talks now underway were making progress & that more complicated issues would not be tackled until later discussions.  “I’m reasonably optimistic we can get something done and move forward toward a completion of phase one,” he added.  Commodities were mixed with gold down 1.5% to $1489 an ounce & West Texas Intermediate crude oil up 1.1% at $57.16 a barrel.  Treasuries were sharply lower, causing the yield on the 10-year note to climb by 7.7 basis points to 1.865%.  European markets were higher with London's FTSE & France's CAC both up 0.2% & Germany's DAX little changed.  In Asia, Japan's Nikkei jumped by 1.5%, returning from a holiday.  The Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 0.5% & the Shanghai Composite added 0.5%.

Dow opens at record high as stocks soar on US-China trade optimism


In a move to help get a partial trade deal done, US & Chinese officials are considering rolling back  some tariffs.  The 2 sides have reached an agreement in principle in what the Trump administration has been calling a "phase one" deal.  It would be the first of several phases intended to end the trade dispute.  The phase one pact would include Chinese purchases of American farm goods, rules to deter currency manipulation & some provisions to protect intellectual property & open up Chinese industries to US firms.  Pres Trump had planned on imposing brand-new tariffs on Dec 15, but instead, some existing tariffs may be rolled back.  China's foreign ministry sent positive signals about the trade talks yesterday, saying the 2 pres's are in contact & progress is being made on the negotiations.  Trump administration officials were considering cutting tariffs of 15% on about $111B in Chinese imports imposed Sep 1.  In a conference call, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he was "reasonably optimistic" that the phase one talks would be finished.  More difficult issues would wait for later rounds, he added.  "We're hoping phase one will be a precursor of later agreements," Ross said.  Trump & Xi were due to meet at this month's gathering of Asia-Pacific leaders in Chile but the event was canceled due to protests.   Ross said the 2 sides were looking for an alternative venue for a meeting.

US, China reportedly consider rolling back tariffs to get 'phase one' deal done


The US trade deficit fell in Sep to the lowest level in 5 months as imports dropped more sharply than exports & America ran a rare surplus in petroleum.  The Commerce Dept said that the Sep gap between what America buys from abroad & what it sells shrank by 4.7% to $52.5B .  That was down from the Aug deficit of $55B & was the smallest imbalance since Apr.  The politically sensitive deficit with China edged down 0.6% to $31.6B.  Pres Trump has imposed tariffs on more than $360Bin Chinese imports.  China has retaliated with its own tariffs on American products as the 2 largest economies have engaged in a trade war that has rattled global financial markets & slowed economic growth.

US trade deficit falls to lowest level in five months


The world's biggest shopping event takes place on Nov 11 in China & the majority of shoppers plan to boycott American brands because of the country's trade war with the US.  78% of Chinese consumers said their consumption of US brands on Singles' Day would be impacted by the struggle, while 70% said their overall purchases would be affected, according to an AlixPartners survey of 2000.  “More than half of respondents (51 percent) cited national loyalty as the main reason for not buying American brands,” the survey found.  The tit-for-tat trade war has seen the US slap tariffs on more than $350B  of Chinese goods, which has exacerbated the slowdown of China's economy & hurt US manufacturers & merchants.  Singles' Day, which started as a “holiday” for the Chinese to buy gifts online & celebrate being single, has turned into the country's version of Black Friday – except much bigger & losing revenue then heightens the pain for American firms.  Last year, Alibaba (BABA) said Singles' Day sales on its e-commerce platform totaled $30.8 billion in a 24-hour period, compared with the record $6.22B of online sale for Black Friday.  Aside from national loyalty, survey respondents said they would snub American products because of quality (27%), price (16%) & speed of delivery or customs (6%).

Chinese shoppers shun American brands on busiest shopping day due to 'national loyalty': Survey


Job openings hit their lowest level in 18 months in Sep as the labor market continued to tighten, according to the Labor Dept.  Total vacancies fell to 7.02M  for the month, a decline of 277K from Aug, the Jobs Opening & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed.  Though it lags other releases by a month, the JOLTS report is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials as an indicator of labor market health.  The jobs openings rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6% in Aug.  However, the total number of job openings still is well ahead of the reported 5.8M people looking for work during the month.  The last vacancies were below 7M was Mar 2018.  The quits rate, a measure of confidence & mobility that gauges how many workers voluntarily left their jobs, edged lower to 2.3% for the month as the total fell by 103K to 3.5M.  Hires increased 50K to 5.93M, while total separations increased by 76K to 5.81M.  The hires rate remained unchanged at 3.9% while the separations rate also held at 3.8%.  Nonfarm payrolls overall increased 180K in Sep while the total employment level rose to 158.3M & the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%.  Data released Fri showed payroll growth of 128K in Oct, with the jobless rate edging up to 3.6%.

Job openings hit lowest level in 18 months but are still well ahead of total vacancies

Stocks are resting after the Oct-Nov rally.  They're entitled.  Investors are still buying stocks (risk investments) while safe have investments in gold & Treasuries were sold today.  Hopes are running high for a US-China trade deal & the signals are looking good.

Dow Jones Industrials









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