Monday, November 25, 2019

Markets climb higher on trade optimism

Dow shot up 141, to go over 28K again, advancers over decliners about 4-1 & NAZ gained 100.  The MLP index index went up 1 o the 205s & the REIT added 1+ to 401.  Junk  bond funds were little changed & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil slid lower in the 57s & gold fell 4 to 1458 (more below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil57.59
-0.18-0.3%

GC=FGold   1,459.20
-4.40-0.3%






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The S&P 500 & NAZ hit record highs today after China issued a document to “effectively curb” violations of intellectual property rights such as trademarks & copyrights.  The Dow traded within 75 points of its own record peak.  Pres Trump touted the strong market in a tweet today.  "Another new Stock Market Record. Enjoy!" he wrote.  Commodities were lower, with gold down 0.5% at $1456 an ounce & West Texas Intermediate crude oil lower by 0.2% at $57.68 a barrel.  Treasuries inched higher, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down 1 basis point to 1.764%.   Investors were watching the situation in Hong Kong, where pro-democracy candidates won a majority of seats in a local district council election yesterday.  After nearly 6 months of often violent protests, it is yet another challenge for Chief Exec Carrie Lam’s gov.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 1.5%% while China's Shanghai Composite added 0.7%.  In Europe, Britain's FTSE was up 1% to pace the advance.

Stocks rally as China budges on key US trade demand


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is making his way thru part of New England, meeting with local leaders in Rhode Island & Connecticut amid sluggish growth in the region's economy.  The head of the central bank, alongside Boston Federal Reserve Pres Eric Rosengren, will meet with leaders of East Hartford CONNects, a grant-funded initiative led by the Boston Fed that's intended to combat poverty by connecting residents with education, job training & long-term, sustaining careers.  Afterward, Powell will go to Rhode Island to deliver a speech at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce.  In Q2, Connecticut's economy slowed, growing by just 1%, ½ that of the overall US GDP rate & ranked 47th among the states.  Rhode Island's economy fared slightly better at 1.5% but still ranked 35th.  It's a trend pervasive across New England, with only one state not falling in the bottom 15 of economic growth: Maine, at 0.%, was 49th; Vermont, at 1.3%, was 37th; New Hampshire, at 1.4%, was 36th; & Massachusetts, at 1.5%, was 34rd.  Connecticut's anemic growth was tied to a slide of more than a ¼ percentage point in the construction industry, which was among the weakest sectors.  Across the state, the number of available construction jobs rose slightly to 58K in Oct, down from 62K at the start of the year.  Still, like most of the US, the state is steadily creating jobs.  In Oct, the state's economy added 5K, while unemployment fell to 3.6%, down 0.2% from the year-ago period.

Fed's Powell heads to Connecticut, Rhode Island as region's economy sags


Gold lost some ground, with weakness attributed to cautiously upbeat expectations around US-China trade negotiations seen robbing the metal of its haven appeal.  Gold for Dec delivery fell $6.20 (0.4%) to $1457 an ounce.  Global equity markets rose, while US stocks pushed higher on upbeat expectations around US-China trade prospects.  Contributing to the positive tone, the Chinese gov yesterday released a document calling for more protection of intellectual property rights.  Remarks over the weekend by Robert O'Brien, the US national security adviser, were also in the spotlight.  O'Brien told reporters at a security conference in Halifax that a “phase one” deal between the US & China by the end of the year still appeared possible while also warning that the US would not “turn a blind eye to what’s happening in Hong Kong or what’s happening in the South China Sea, or other areas of the world where we’re concerned about China’s activity.”

Gold edges lower as investors turn cautiously upbeat on trade outlook


The people of Hong Kong have said in no uncertain terms that they want change.  The question is whether they will get it, or a return to violent protests that have plagued the city for nearly 6 months.  Voters came as close as they can, in what is a semi-autonomous Chinese territory, to voting out the gov.  They can't directly select the city's leader & elect only ½ the legislature.  So they turned out in record numbers yesterday for the only fully democratic elections in town, kicking out the pro-gov & pro-Beijing forces that dominated the city's 18 district councils.  The election cleared up any doubts people may have had about Hong Kong's silent majority.  The central gov in Beijing has portrayed the protests as the work of a small group of rioters wreaking havoc, disrupting & even endangering the lives of Hong Kong's 7.4M people in the process.  Pro-gov candidates said a vote for them would be a vote to end the violence & restore  The black-clad protesters believed they still had public support, the office workers who joined lunchtime demonstrations in a central business district, even as they smashed storefronts, threw gasoline bombs & blocked rush hour traffic & trains in escalating tactics designed to get the gov to bend to their demands, including full democracy & police accountability.  The protesters, it seems, were right.  The pro-democracy forces trounced the ruling pro-Beijing camp in the election, taking control of 17 of the 18 district councils.

Hong Kong elections a slap to Beijing's face -- Here's what could happen


The trade news from China is encouraging & the Hong Kong elections went well.  Bulls are optimistic & investors are buying stocks.  This week is traditionally a quiet week, but positive news on the trade front could make it a very good week for stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials








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