Dow went up 42, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ gained 57. The MLP index fluctuated in the 202s & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 406s. Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries drifted lower in price. Oil continued lower in the 58s & gold fell 5 to 1461.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Congress could vote on the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement as soon as next week, sources have said. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi suggested on Mon that House Dems & Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are coming closer to an agreement to bring it to the floor. The deal will "definitely" come up for a vote by the end of the year, according to sources. “House Democrats have insisted that hard-working Americans need more from the USMCA than just the same broken NAFTA with better language but no real enforcement," Pelosi said. "We are within range of a substantially improved agreement for America’s workers. Now, we need to see our progress in writing from the Trade Representative for final review.” A White House source said that movement on the deal could happen quickly, though a vote next week would be an "aggressive" timetable. A House Dem aide said that if an agreement were reached today, things would have to move quickly in order to have a floor vote on ratification next week. Any changes to the agreement would need to be approved by Canada & Mexico. "We are encouraged by progress in the United States," a Canadian gov official said, confirming conversations between Canadian & American trade officials this week. Pres Trump has blamed Dems in Congress for stalling the deal. Trump told reporters Mon that the USMCA has been "sitting on Nancy Pelosi's desk." "She's incapable of moving it, it looks like she can't – everybody knows it's a great deal, she knows it's a great deal, she said it," Trump added. "She keeps saying she wants to get it done, but we're talking about many, many months, sitting on her desk – no votes." The administration has emphasized how the agreement could benefit autoworkers with decreased costs & more production in the US for materials & the immigration crisis by boosting job opportunities in Mexico.
US consumer spending rose in Oct for the 8th month in a row, a potentially good sign for the holiday shopping season that gets underway after Thanksgiving with Black Friday specials. Consumer spending increased 0.3% last month, the gov said. The forecast called for a 0.2% increase. A key barometer of inflation, meanwhile, rose a few ticks in Oct. Yet inflation has been muffled for the past year & shows little sign of becoming a problem for the economy. Americans spent more on natural gas & electricity in Oct. Outlays on other services also increased. Consumers spent less on new autos & parts. In somewhat of a surprise, incomes were were unchanged. Farmers earned less & interest income also declined. Incomes have only failed to rise 4 different times in the past 5 years. Similarly, disposable income (take-home pay after tax) fell last month for the first time since 2015. Yet by & large, incomes have been rising at a healthy pace & have supported steady consumer spending. A high savings rate has also provided a cushion for Americans to spend. The savings rate slipped last month to 7.8% from 8.1%, but it's still relatively high. The Fed's preferred “PCE” inflation barometer, meanwhile, rose 0.2% in Oct. The index showed prices rising at a meager 1.3% pace over the past year, unchanged from the prior month. That's still well short of the central bank's 2% target. The more closely followed core measure of inflation edged up 0.1% in Oct. Over the past year it’s risen 1.6%, down a tick from the prior month. Torrid consumer spending drove the economy in the spring & summer. Rising incomes & a record stock market are likely to help keep spending on the high side in the final months of the year, but it probably won't be as strong as it was earlier in the year. What will also help are low interest rates. The Federal Reserve has cut the cost of borrowing in response to tepid inflation & the threat of lasting damage from the US trade war with China.
The US economy expanded modestly from Oct to mid-Nov & the outlook for growth was generally positive while labor markets remained tight across the country, the Federal Reserve said in a report. The latest temperature check of the economy, gathered from the central bank's discussions with business contacts around the country, also said prices had increased at a modest pace. “Outlooks generally remained positive with some contacts expecting the current pace of growth to continue into next year,” the Fed said in its “Beige Book” report. Several Fed districts reported “relatively strong job gains” in professional & technical services as well as in health care. The picture was more mixed for manufacturing, with some districts noting rising headcounts while others said employment remained stable. One district reported layoffs. Overall, employment continued to rise, even as tight labor markets across the country made it difficult for employers to find the workers they needed. Some contacts said their inability to fill vacancies was constraining business growth. For example, employment agencies in the NY district said “almost all job candidates” already are employed & are not interested in changing positions at this time of year. Agricultural conditions were largely unchanged & remained strained by weather & low crop prices. In the Richmond district, farmers have been hesitant to invest in land or equipment. Parts of the Atlanta district also experienced drought conditions. The US-China trade war, now in its 16th month, has dragged on economic growth. US manufacturing activity has softened & business investment has cooled as firms delay making decisions due to the uncertainty over tariffs. Retailers mentioned higher costs, with contacts in some districts attributing the rises to tariffs. Some firms said they were limited in their ability to raise prices, while others were more able to pass on the costs. Most districts reported stable-to-moderately growing consumer spending, with several districts reporting increases in auto sales & tourism. However, some areas reported pockets of weakness. Retailers in the St Louis district said the outlook for future economic conditions had turned pessimistic & that sales have been the same or slightly lower than last year. Attendance at Broadway shows in New York City dropped off during the first ½ of Nov & ticket prices were slightly lower than a year ago. US consumer confidence fell in Nov for the 4th straight month amid concerns about current business conditions, but the index is still consistent with an economy growing at a moderate pace.
US economy growing modestly, labor market still tight, according to Fed’s Beige Book report
Orders for durable goods rose sharply in Oct, but most of the gain was tied to defense-related goods such as fighter jets & ships. Bookings for civilian products barely rose, highlighting ongoing softness in the industrial side of the economy that's constraining US growth. Orders climbed 0.6% last month, the gov said. The forecast called for a 1.1% drop. Yet if military hardware is stripped out, orders edged up just 0.1%. Orders declined 1.9% for new autos &d parts, reflecting a month-long strike at General Motors (GM) that hampered production in Oct. The originally reported 1.2% decline in durable-goods orders in Sep was revised to show a 1.4% drop. Businesses have cut back on spending, investment & hiring this year in response to the US trade fight with China & a slowing world economy. They probably won’t cut investment much further, but they are also unlikely to become more aggressive until trade tensions are dialed down & global growth recovers. Both nations say they are close to a “phase-one” deal to bridge some of the gap, but the most contentious issues remain. The ongoing dispute is likely to continue to weigh on the economy in 2020 when Pres Trump is up for reelection.
Oil prices turned lower after official US inventory data posted a rise in the latest week that defied predictions for a drawdown. Earlier, oil prices for the US & global benchmarks had edged higher as cautious optimism for a trade pact between the US & China continued to prop up commodities prices, sending markets to records. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for Jan delivery were down 20¢ (0.3%) at $58.22 a barrel. Jan Brent the global marker, fell 19¢ (0.3%) at $64.08 a barrel. US crude stocks rose last week as refineries cut output, while gasoline & distillate inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration reported. Crude inventories rose by 1.6M barrels last week. Refinery crude runs fell by 101K barrels per day, EIA data showed & gasoline stocks rose by 5.1M barrels. The American Petroleum Institute (API) had reported yesterday that US crude supplies rose by roughly 3.6M barrels last week, according to sources, that result contradicted expectations & may have prepped the market for the build in the official data. The API data also reportedly showed a stockpile rise of 4.3M barrels for gasoline, along with a supply decline of 665K barrels for distillates. US markets are closed tomorrow will close early on Fri. The positive tone this week found another leg of support when Pres Trump said yesterday US-China negotiations were in the “final throes,” while China's Commerce Ministry said Vice Premier Liu He, the country's top trade negotiator, spoke with Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Cautious optimism for a trade-pact resolution has underpinned oil prices but some analysts question how long that can persist as a supportive factor, especially heading into the next meeting for OPEC early next month.
Oil prices fall as U.S. inventory data shows surprise gain
Trading was unexciting as many traders started their holiday celebration early. Fri will a shortened day. Next week, which starts the new month, will bring a lot more excitement. So far, the Dow is up an impressive 1100 in Nov.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Congress could vote on the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement as soon as next week, sources have said. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi suggested on Mon that House Dems & Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are coming closer to an agreement to bring it to the floor. The deal will "definitely" come up for a vote by the end of the year, according to sources. “House Democrats have insisted that hard-working Americans need more from the USMCA than just the same broken NAFTA with better language but no real enforcement," Pelosi said. "We are within range of a substantially improved agreement for America’s workers. Now, we need to see our progress in writing from the Trade Representative for final review.” A White House source said that movement on the deal could happen quickly, though a vote next week would be an "aggressive" timetable. A House Dem aide said that if an agreement were reached today, things would have to move quickly in order to have a floor vote on ratification next week. Any changes to the agreement would need to be approved by Canada & Mexico. "We are encouraged by progress in the United States," a Canadian gov official said, confirming conversations between Canadian & American trade officials this week. Pres Trump has blamed Dems in Congress for stalling the deal. Trump told reporters Mon that the USMCA has been "sitting on Nancy Pelosi's desk." "She's incapable of moving it, it looks like she can't – everybody knows it's a great deal, she knows it's a great deal, she said it," Trump added. "She keeps saying she wants to get it done, but we're talking about many, many months, sitting on her desk – no votes." The administration has emphasized how the agreement could benefit autoworkers with decreased costs & more production in the US for materials & the immigration crisis by boosting job opportunities in Mexico.
Congress could vote on USMCA next week, 'definitely' by end of year: sources
US consumer spending rose in Oct for the 8th month in a row, a potentially good sign for the holiday shopping season that gets underway after Thanksgiving with Black Friday specials. Consumer spending increased 0.3% last month, the gov said. The forecast called for a 0.2% increase. A key barometer of inflation, meanwhile, rose a few ticks in Oct. Yet inflation has been muffled for the past year & shows little sign of becoming a problem for the economy. Americans spent more on natural gas & electricity in Oct. Outlays on other services also increased. Consumers spent less on new autos & parts. In somewhat of a surprise, incomes were were unchanged. Farmers earned less & interest income also declined. Incomes have only failed to rise 4 different times in the past 5 years. Similarly, disposable income (take-home pay after tax) fell last month for the first time since 2015. Yet by & large, incomes have been rising at a healthy pace & have supported steady consumer spending. A high savings rate has also provided a cushion for Americans to spend. The savings rate slipped last month to 7.8% from 8.1%, but it's still relatively high. The Fed's preferred “PCE” inflation barometer, meanwhile, rose 0.2% in Oct. The index showed prices rising at a meager 1.3% pace over the past year, unchanged from the prior month. That's still well short of the central bank's 2% target. The more closely followed core measure of inflation edged up 0.1% in Oct. Over the past year it’s risen 1.6%, down a tick from the prior month. Torrid consumer spending drove the economy in the spring & summer. Rising incomes & a record stock market are likely to help keep spending on the high side in the final months of the year, but it probably won't be as strong as it was earlier in the year. What will also help are low interest rates. The Federal Reserve has cut the cost of borrowing in response to tepid inflation & the threat of lasting damage from the US trade war with China.
U.S. consumer spending climbs again in October even as incomes fall flat
The US economy expanded modestly from Oct to mid-Nov & the outlook for growth was generally positive while labor markets remained tight across the country, the Federal Reserve said in a report. The latest temperature check of the economy, gathered from the central bank's discussions with business contacts around the country, also said prices had increased at a modest pace. “Outlooks generally remained positive with some contacts expecting the current pace of growth to continue into next year,” the Fed said in its “Beige Book” report. Several Fed districts reported “relatively strong job gains” in professional & technical services as well as in health care. The picture was more mixed for manufacturing, with some districts noting rising headcounts while others said employment remained stable. One district reported layoffs. Overall, employment continued to rise, even as tight labor markets across the country made it difficult for employers to find the workers they needed. Some contacts said their inability to fill vacancies was constraining business growth. For example, employment agencies in the NY district said “almost all job candidates” already are employed & are not interested in changing positions at this time of year. Agricultural conditions were largely unchanged & remained strained by weather & low crop prices. In the Richmond district, farmers have been hesitant to invest in land or equipment. Parts of the Atlanta district also experienced drought conditions. The US-China trade war, now in its 16th month, has dragged on economic growth. US manufacturing activity has softened & business investment has cooled as firms delay making decisions due to the uncertainty over tariffs. Retailers mentioned higher costs, with contacts in some districts attributing the rises to tariffs. Some firms said they were limited in their ability to raise prices, while others were more able to pass on the costs. Most districts reported stable-to-moderately growing consumer spending, with several districts reporting increases in auto sales & tourism. However, some areas reported pockets of weakness. Retailers in the St Louis district said the outlook for future economic conditions had turned pessimistic & that sales have been the same or slightly lower than last year. Attendance at Broadway shows in New York City dropped off during the first ½ of Nov & ticket prices were slightly lower than a year ago. US consumer confidence fell in Nov for the 4th straight month amid concerns about current business conditions, but the index is still consistent with an economy growing at a moderate pace.
US economy growing modestly, labor market still tight, according to Fed’s Beige Book report
Orders for durable goods rose sharply in Oct, but most of the gain was tied to defense-related goods such as fighter jets & ships. Bookings for civilian products barely rose, highlighting ongoing softness in the industrial side of the economy that's constraining US growth. Orders climbed 0.6% last month, the gov said. The forecast called for a 1.1% drop. Yet if military hardware is stripped out, orders edged up just 0.1%. Orders declined 1.9% for new autos &d parts, reflecting a month-long strike at General Motors (GM) that hampered production in Oct. The originally reported 1.2% decline in durable-goods orders in Sep was revised to show a 1.4% drop. Businesses have cut back on spending, investment & hiring this year in response to the US trade fight with China & a slowing world economy. They probably won’t cut investment much further, but they are also unlikely to become more aggressive until trade tensions are dialed down & global growth recovers. Both nations say they are close to a “phase-one” deal to bridge some of the gap, but the most contentious issues remain. The ongoing dispute is likely to continue to weigh on the economy in 2020 when Pres Trump is up for reelection.
U.S. durable-goods orders jump 0.6% in October, but mostly for military weapons
Oil prices turned lower after official US inventory data posted a rise in the latest week that defied predictions for a drawdown. Earlier, oil prices for the US & global benchmarks had edged higher as cautious optimism for a trade pact between the US & China continued to prop up commodities prices, sending markets to records. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for Jan delivery were down 20¢ (0.3%) at $58.22 a barrel. Jan Brent the global marker, fell 19¢ (0.3%) at $64.08 a barrel. US crude stocks rose last week as refineries cut output, while gasoline & distillate inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration reported. Crude inventories rose by 1.6M barrels last week. Refinery crude runs fell by 101K barrels per day, EIA data showed & gasoline stocks rose by 5.1M barrels. The American Petroleum Institute (API) had reported yesterday that US crude supplies rose by roughly 3.6M barrels last week, according to sources, that result contradicted expectations & may have prepped the market for the build in the official data. The API data also reportedly showed a stockpile rise of 4.3M barrels for gasoline, along with a supply decline of 665K barrels for distillates. US markets are closed tomorrow will close early on Fri. The positive tone this week found another leg of support when Pres Trump said yesterday US-China negotiations were in the “final throes,” while China's Commerce Ministry said Vice Premier Liu He, the country's top trade negotiator, spoke with Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Cautious optimism for a trade-pact resolution has underpinned oil prices but some analysts question how long that can persist as a supportive factor, especially heading into the next meeting for OPEC early next month.
Oil prices fall as U.S. inventory data shows surprise gain
Trading was unexciting as many traders started their holiday celebration early. Fri will a shortened day. Next week, which starts the new month, will bring a lot more excitement. So far, the Dow is up an impressive 1100 in Nov.
Dow Jones Industrials
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