Dow added 54 after sliding lower for the last 3 days, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ lost 10. The MLP index went up 1 to the 204s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 398s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries crawled higher. Oil was fractionally lower to 58 & gold stayed even at 1463.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Stocks opened higher after Pres Trump said that the US & China are "very close" to an agreement on trade. His comments come after Chinese Pres Xi Jinping said his gov wants to "work for a phase one agreement on the basis of mutual respect and equality." All of the major averages opened higher by about 0.2% & extended their gains following the better-than-expected Univ of Mich consumer sentiment reading. Commodities traded mixed with West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 0.4 % at $58.37 a barrel & gold up 0.2% at $1473 an ounce. Treasuries were little changed with the note on the 10-year yield holding near 1.775%. Overnight, China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.6% & Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 0.5%. In Europe, Britain's FTSE, up 1.4%, is pacing the advance.
Pres Trump says the US & China are "very close" to a phase one trade deal. "We have a deal potentially very close," the he said. "He [Chinese President Xi Jinping] wants to make it much more than I want to make it. I'm not anxious to make it. We're taking in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs." Trump's comments come after Xi said earlier today that Beijing wants to "work for a phase one agreement on the basis of mutual respect and equality." Trump said he didn't like Xi's use of the word "equality," because the US is "starting off from the floor" & China is "already at the ceiling" due to the $500B a year Beijing is receiving from America. The 17-month-long trade war, in which the US has imposed tariffs on some $350B of Chinese goods & threatened even more, has weighed on the world2s 2nd-largest economy. It grew only 6% in the 3 months thru Sep, the slowest since record-keeping began in 1993. Growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2020 as the trade war & growing debt levels are expected to remain a drag, the IMF said in its Oct 2019 World Economic Outlook, potentially forcing Xi's hand to make a deal. Yesterday, China invited US trade negotiators to Beijing for face-to-face talks, which they hope to conduct before Thanksgiving, according to a report. The US has not said whether it has accepted the invitation. China has called on the US to roll back tariffs as part of a phase one deal, but Trump has ruled that out. "China would like to make a deal much more than I would," he pres told reporters on Nov 9. "They'd like to have a rollback. I haven't agreed to anything."
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose in Nov, according to data from the Univ of Mich. The index of consumer sentiment climbed to 96.8 from 95.5 last month. Consumer sentiment was expected to dip to 94.9 for Nov. An index reflecting consumer expectations moving forward also rose to 87.3 from 84.2 in Oct. Richard Curtin, chief economist at the Surveys of Consumers, said consumer sentiment has not been at 95 or higher in 30 of the past 35 months. That level of optimism has not been seen since the period between Jan 1998 & Dec 2000, when the index remained at 100 or above in 34 or 36 months. “Although impeachment proceedings occurred in both time periods, the current period is distinctive for the much sharper partisan divisions in the economic expectations among consumers as well as the wide gap in optimism between consumers and business firms,” Curtin added. “One side anticipates a recession, while the other side expects an uninterrupted expansion in the year ahead.” “To be sure, there is ample reason for both optimism as well as pessimism, but not the extreme differences voiced by these groups,” he said. Favorable evaluations of consumers' financial situation is at a record high while household wealth is rising. But risks from the ongoing US-China trade war & slow global economic growth could lead to “negative shocks” for consumers.
US consumer sentiment comes in higher than expected for November
IHS Markit said its US flash manufacturing sector purchasing managers index rose to 52.2 in Nov from 51.3 in Oct, the fastest rate since Apr. Meanwhile the US flash services sector purchasing managers index in Nov rose to 51.6 from 50.6. This is the quickest expansion since Jul. Any reading above 50 indicates improving conditions. The flash estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total survey responses each month. Manufacturers registered a rise in new orders in Nov. There was a small upturn in service sector new business also. Both manufacturers & service providers indicated a rise in workforce numbers. “A welcome upturn in the headline index from the flash PMI adds to evidence that the worst of the economy’s recent soft patch may be behind us,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. The US economy is slowing but economists are divided about how severe the slowdown might be. Manufacturing might have gotten a boost from the end of the United Automobile Workers strike & somewhat easier trade tensions.
The stock market is really little changed. Comments on hopes for a trade deal are nothing new for traders, they've heard this talk before. One thing is certain, there has been no mention about rescheduling the meeting in Chile which was supposed to result in a signed phase 1 part of a trade deal. Meanwhile the Dow is hovering near is record high, just above 28K.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 58.42 | -0.16 | -0.3% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,465.90 | +2.30 | +0.2% |
Stocks opened higher after Pres Trump said that the US & China are "very close" to an agreement on trade. His comments come after Chinese Pres Xi Jinping said his gov wants to "work for a phase one agreement on the basis of mutual respect and equality." All of the major averages opened higher by about 0.2% & extended their gains following the better-than-expected Univ of Mich consumer sentiment reading. Commodities traded mixed with West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 0.4 % at $58.37 a barrel & gold up 0.2% at $1473 an ounce. Treasuries were little changed with the note on the 10-year yield holding near 1.775%. Overnight, China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.6% & Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 0.5%. In Europe, Britain's FTSE, up 1.4%, is pacing the advance.
US stocks point higher after China's cautious trade optimism
Pres Trump says the US & China are "very close" to a phase one trade deal. "We have a deal potentially very close," the he said. "He [Chinese President Xi Jinping] wants to make it much more than I want to make it. I'm not anxious to make it. We're taking in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs." Trump's comments come after Xi said earlier today that Beijing wants to "work for a phase one agreement on the basis of mutual respect and equality." Trump said he didn't like Xi's use of the word "equality," because the US is "starting off from the floor" & China is "already at the ceiling" due to the $500B a year Beijing is receiving from America. The 17-month-long trade war, in which the US has imposed tariffs on some $350B of Chinese goods & threatened even more, has weighed on the world2s 2nd-largest economy. It grew only 6% in the 3 months thru Sep, the slowest since record-keeping began in 1993. Growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2020 as the trade war & growing debt levels are expected to remain a drag, the IMF said in its Oct 2019 World Economic Outlook, potentially forcing Xi's hand to make a deal. Yesterday, China invited US trade negotiators to Beijing for face-to-face talks, which they hope to conduct before Thanksgiving, according to a report. The US has not said whether it has accepted the invitation. China has called on the US to roll back tariffs as part of a phase one deal, but Trump has ruled that out. "China would like to make a deal much more than I would," he pres told reporters on Nov 9. "They'd like to have a rollback. I haven't agreed to anything."
Trump hits back at China's Xi on 'very close' trade deal
Consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose in Nov, according to data from the Univ of Mich. The index of consumer sentiment climbed to 96.8 from 95.5 last month. Consumer sentiment was expected to dip to 94.9 for Nov. An index reflecting consumer expectations moving forward also rose to 87.3 from 84.2 in Oct. Richard Curtin, chief economist at the Surveys of Consumers, said consumer sentiment has not been at 95 or higher in 30 of the past 35 months. That level of optimism has not been seen since the period between Jan 1998 & Dec 2000, when the index remained at 100 or above in 34 or 36 months. “Although impeachment proceedings occurred in both time periods, the current period is distinctive for the much sharper partisan divisions in the economic expectations among consumers as well as the wide gap in optimism between consumers and business firms,” Curtin added. “One side anticipates a recession, while the other side expects an uninterrupted expansion in the year ahead.” “To be sure, there is ample reason for both optimism as well as pessimism, but not the extreme differences voiced by these groups,” he said. Favorable evaluations of consumers' financial situation is at a record high while household wealth is rising. But risks from the ongoing US-China trade war & slow global economic growth could lead to “negative shocks” for consumers.
US consumer sentiment comes in higher than expected for November
IHS Markit said its US flash manufacturing sector purchasing managers index rose to 52.2 in Nov from 51.3 in Oct, the fastest rate since Apr. Meanwhile the US flash services sector purchasing managers index in Nov rose to 51.6 from 50.6. This is the quickest expansion since Jul. Any reading above 50 indicates improving conditions. The flash estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total survey responses each month. Manufacturers registered a rise in new orders in Nov. There was a small upturn in service sector new business also. Both manufacturers & service providers indicated a rise in workforce numbers. “A welcome upturn in the headline index from the flash PMI adds to evidence that the worst of the economy’s recent soft patch may be behind us,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. The US economy is slowing but economists are divided about how severe the slowdown might be. Manufacturing might have gotten a boost from the end of the United Automobile Workers strike & somewhat easier trade tensions.
U.S. manufacturing, services sector PMIs improve in November
The stock market is really little changed. Comments on hopes for a trade deal are nothing new for traders, they've heard this talk before. One thing is certain, there has been no mention about rescheduling the meeting in Chile which was supposed to result in a signed phase 1 part of a trade deal. Meanwhile the Dow is hovering near is record high, just above 28K.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment