Dow was even, decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ rose 21. The MLP index was fractionally lower to the 205s (another multi year low) & the REIT index dropped 2 to the 396s. Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were purchased in the PM. Oil was off pennies in the 56s & gold inched up 1 to 1458 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Pres Trump says the US is in the midst of an economic boom that has never been seen before. “Today, I am proud to stand before you as President to report that we have delivered on our promises – and exceeded our expectations,” Trump said in a speech at the Economic Club of NY. “We have ended the war on American workers, we have stopped the assault on American industry, and we have launched an economic boom the likes of which we have never seen before” he said, adding that the strong economy developed despite the Fed hiking rates "far too fast" & cutting rates "far too slow." The pres said his administration has created 7M new jobs – well above the less than 2M that the Congressional Budget Office had projected & the US unemployment rate was at 3.6% in Oct, near a 50-year low. Trump said 2M Americans have rejoined the labor force since he took office & that more than 1.1M fewer citizens rely on part-time work. “We want the incentives created by our tax, trade, regulatory, and energy policies to be pro-growth, pro-worker, and 100% pro-American,” he added. Trump also touted the record levels of the stock market in his remarks, noting that the S&P 500 has gained more than 45% since his election win. The Dow & NAZ are up more than 50% & 60%, respectively. He said you could've added another 25% to each of those numbers "if we had a Federal Reserve that worked with us." In total, the US economy has received a nearly $10T boost under his watch.
The US Trade Representative's Office is excluding 36 items made in China, including big-ticket products such as floor coverings for homes & wheel rims for cars, from tariffs on the country's exports. The goods were originally part of the $200B worth of Chinese merchandise that were hit with a 25% tariff beginning Sep 24, 2018. The decision allows the companies that paid tariffs on those goods to get their money back. The US has slapped tariffs on more than $350B worth of Chinese merchandise during the more than 16-month-long trade war between the 2 economic superpowers. China has responded by placing duties on $160B of US goods. Pres has pushed back against initial reports that the US & China agreed to roll back tariffs if the first phase of a trade pact is reached; a comprehensive agreement would likely require 2 or 3 phases. “China would like to make a deal much more than I would," the pres told reporters on Fri. "They'd like to have a rollback. I haven't agreed to anything." On Oct 11, the 2 sides announced they had reached a framework for an initial trade deal, which included agricultural products and more. Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping were hoping to sign a deal at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Santiago, Chile, this week, but the event was canceled due to unrest in the country. A date for a formal signing ceremony hasn't yet been decided.
Gold futures marked a 4th straight session decline to settle at their lowest since Aug, as strength in the $ & fresh highs for stock benchmarks contributed to waning demand for haven gold. Dec gold fell $3.40 (0.2%) to settle at $1453 an ounce, with prices for the most-active contract at their lowest settlement Aug 1. In a much-awaited speech from Pres Trump at the Economic Club of NY today, Pres Trump said a US-China trade deal “could happen soon,” & added a phase 1 agreement was “close.” He also warned that if a deal isn't reached, the US will “substantially raise the tariffs.” Trump didn't offer any hints on the actual timing for a possible signing of the deal.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Pres Patrick Harker said that the central bank was wrong to lower interest rates last month. Mr. Harker, who isn’t a voting member of the rate-setting FOMC this year, said he would have dissented from the Fed's 3rd rate cut of 2019. Harker was speaking at an event held by the Society for Advancing Business Editing & Writing Fall Conference in NY.
Oil futures ended slightly lower, to post back-to-back declines, as a speech from Pres Trump failed to offer any market-moving insights related to progress on trade talks between China & the US, a driver of economic growth and demand for crude. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Dec delivery, the US benchmark, lost 6¢ to settle at $56.80 a barrel, after losing 0.7% yesterday, while Jan Brent crude shed 12¢ to $62.06 a barrel, following a 0.5% skid for the intl benchmark grade yesterday. Intl trade tensions between the US, China & Europe have been a big headwind for oil prices as Trump's import tariffs have contributed to slowing economic growth this year while supplies have been rising. WTI oil prices had touched an intraday high of $57.55 today. News reports said data provider Genscape reported that crude-oil inventories at key oil delivery point Cushing, Okla. were down 1.2M barrels last week. Investors will be watching for US petroleum supply reports from the American Petroleum Institute tomorrow, & the more closely followed Energy Information Administration report. Last week, EIA reported that US crude supplies rose a 2nd straight week, up 7.9M barrels for the prior week. IHS Markit projections for the EIA data call for an increase of 1.1M barrels for crude inventories for last week, along with declines of 1M barrels for gasoline & 500K barrels for distillate supplies. In addition to weekly supply data, a monthly report from OPEC is due Thurs & the monthly Intl Energy Agency report is due on Fri, before a key Dec 5-6 meeting of OPEC & major allies, including Russia, where potential for deeper production cuts will be discussed. Meanwhile, new reports over the weekend said that Iran Pres Hassan Rouhani announced the discovery of a new oil field that contains 53B barrels of crude oil, which would raise Iran's proven reserves by about a 3rd.
Oil tallies back-to-back declines, finding little guidance on U.S.-China trade developments
Traders did not hear much new in Trump's speech & then sold stocks.. The comments from Harker that the Oct rate cut wasn't needed did not help market sentiment. As shown below, the stock averages are at or close to record highs.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Pres Trump says the US is in the midst of an economic boom that has never been seen before. “Today, I am proud to stand before you as President to report that we have delivered on our promises – and exceeded our expectations,” Trump said in a speech at the Economic Club of NY. “We have ended the war on American workers, we have stopped the assault on American industry, and we have launched an economic boom the likes of which we have never seen before” he said, adding that the strong economy developed despite the Fed hiking rates "far too fast" & cutting rates "far too slow." The pres said his administration has created 7M new jobs – well above the less than 2M that the Congressional Budget Office had projected & the US unemployment rate was at 3.6% in Oct, near a 50-year low. Trump said 2M Americans have rejoined the labor force since he took office & that more than 1.1M fewer citizens rely on part-time work. “We want the incentives created by our tax, trade, regulatory, and energy policies to be pro-growth, pro-worker, and 100% pro-American,” he added. Trump also touted the record levels of the stock market in his remarks, noting that the S&P 500 has gained more than 45% since his election win. The Dow & NAZ are up more than 50% & 60%, respectively. He said you could've added another 25% to each of those numbers "if we had a Federal Reserve that worked with us." In total, the US economy has received a nearly $10T boost under his watch.
Trump: US in the midst of historic economic, stock market boom
The US Trade Representative's Office is excluding 36 items made in China, including big-ticket products such as floor coverings for homes & wheel rims for cars, from tariffs on the country's exports. The goods were originally part of the $200B worth of Chinese merchandise that were hit with a 25% tariff beginning Sep 24, 2018. The decision allows the companies that paid tariffs on those goods to get their money back. The US has slapped tariffs on more than $350B worth of Chinese merchandise during the more than 16-month-long trade war between the 2 economic superpowers. China has responded by placing duties on $160B of US goods. Pres has pushed back against initial reports that the US & China agreed to roll back tariffs if the first phase of a trade pact is reached; a comprehensive agreement would likely require 2 or 3 phases. “China would like to make a deal much more than I would," the pres told reporters on Fri. "They'd like to have a rollback. I haven't agreed to anything." On Oct 11, the 2 sides announced they had reached a framework for an initial trade deal, which included agricultural products and more. Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping were hoping to sign a deal at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Santiago, Chile, this week, but the event was canceled due to unrest in the country. A date for a formal signing ceremony hasn't yet been decided.
US dials back tariffs on some big-ticket items made in China
Gold futures marked a 4th straight session decline to settle at their lowest since Aug, as strength in the $ & fresh highs for stock benchmarks contributed to waning demand for haven gold. Dec gold fell $3.40 (0.2%) to settle at $1453 an ounce, with prices for the most-active contract at their lowest settlement Aug 1. In a much-awaited speech from Pres Trump at the Economic Club of NY today, Pres Trump said a US-China trade deal “could happen soon,” & added a phase 1 agreement was “close.” He also warned that if a deal isn't reached, the US will “substantially raise the tariffs.” Trump didn't offer any hints on the actual timing for a possible signing of the deal.
Gold down a 4th straight session to settle at lowest since August
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Pres Patrick Harker said that the central bank was wrong to lower interest rates last month. Mr. Harker, who isn’t a voting member of the rate-setting FOMC this year, said he would have dissented from the Fed's 3rd rate cut of 2019. Harker was speaking at an event held by the Society for Advancing Business Editing & Writing Fall Conference in NY.
Fed’s Harker Says October Rate Cut Wasn’t Needed
Oil futures ended slightly lower, to post back-to-back declines, as a speech from Pres Trump failed to offer any market-moving insights related to progress on trade talks between China & the US, a driver of economic growth and demand for crude. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Dec delivery, the US benchmark, lost 6¢ to settle at $56.80 a barrel, after losing 0.7% yesterday, while Jan Brent crude shed 12¢ to $62.06 a barrel, following a 0.5% skid for the intl benchmark grade yesterday. Intl trade tensions between the US, China & Europe have been a big headwind for oil prices as Trump's import tariffs have contributed to slowing economic growth this year while supplies have been rising. WTI oil prices had touched an intraday high of $57.55 today. News reports said data provider Genscape reported that crude-oil inventories at key oil delivery point Cushing, Okla. were down 1.2M barrels last week. Investors will be watching for US petroleum supply reports from the American Petroleum Institute tomorrow, & the more closely followed Energy Information Administration report. Last week, EIA reported that US crude supplies rose a 2nd straight week, up 7.9M barrels for the prior week. IHS Markit projections for the EIA data call for an increase of 1.1M barrels for crude inventories for last week, along with declines of 1M barrels for gasoline & 500K barrels for distillate supplies. In addition to weekly supply data, a monthly report from OPEC is due Thurs & the monthly Intl Energy Agency report is due on Fri, before a key Dec 5-6 meeting of OPEC & major allies, including Russia, where potential for deeper production cuts will be discussed. Meanwhile, new reports over the weekend said that Iran Pres Hassan Rouhani announced the discovery of a new oil field that contains 53B barrels of crude oil, which would raise Iran's proven reserves by about a 3rd.
Oil tallies back-to-back declines, finding little guidance on U.S.-China trade developments
Traders did not hear much new in Trump's speech & then sold stocks.. The comments from Harker that the Oct rate cut wasn't needed did not help market sentiment. As shown below, the stock averages are at or close to record highs.
Dow Jones Industrials
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