Dow was off pennies (call it flat, don't see that often), decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ dropped 24. The MLP index sank 3+ to yet another multi year low in the 212s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 403s. Junk bond funds were flat & Treasuries continued to be purchased after yesterday's selling. Oil pulled back to the 56s & gold rebounded 9 to 1493 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Trade uncertainties & a slowdown in manufacturing could cause Europe's economy to grow at the slowest pace in 6 years, the IMF warned. The organization said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook report that growth in the 19-member eurozone will fall to 1.4% in 2019, down from 2.3% one year ago, before rebounding slightly to 1.8% in 2020. In the continent's most advanced economies, growth dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3% in 2019, while emerging Europe remained a bright spot, with growth revised up by 0.5 percentage point to 1.8%. That's because in several of the countries, sluggish trade & manufacturing, combined with heightened trade & Brexit-related uncertainty, have started to rattle investors. Despite this, private consumption & the services sector remained resilient, boosted by a strong labor market as both employment & wage growth remain solid. Given the dire situation, a "synchronized fiscal response, albeit appropriately differentiated across countries, could become suitable," the IMF added in its report. "Monetary policy in many European countries should remain accommodative given subdued inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity," the organization said "At the same time, keeping interest rates low for long can create financial sector vulnerabilities, which need to be carefully monitored." The US remains one of the few countries without a dark outlook: In Oct, the IMF forecast the American economy will expand by 2.1% next year.
A meeting between Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping to sign an interim trade deal could be delayed until Dec as the 2 parties look to agree on the terms & a new venue. A senior administration official said that the White House's goal is still to reach agreement with Beijing by Nov 16 – when the now-canceled APEC summit in Chile would have taken place – but it's not clear that that timeline can be delivered. “The first order of business is to complete the negotiations,” this official said, noting that the potential venue was just one element of the discussions. The official cast doubt on a signing summit in Sweden or Switzerland, which was reported as under consideration, but did not rule it out entirely. Trump has suggested Switzerland as a possible meeting location for the deal signing since Feb, saying, “there’s nowhere more neutral than that,” according to an official paraphrasing Trump's views. A potential summit in Europe would be relatively neutral territory for the 2 leaders, both of whom are conscious of the political optics of signing a deal on the other's home turf. Trump is scheduled to be in London for a gathering of NATO leaders on Dec 3-4, & people close to talks say, a potential signing could happen nearby before or after that visit. Last month, the Trump & Xi administrations started working to finalize a “phase one” trade agreement that included a pause in tariff escalation & China buying US agriculture products. The deal was expected to be signed during an APEC Summit in Chile this month, but violent protests in Santiago led to cancellation of the event. The US & China have been at odds ever since over a possible US location for the meeting. The US suggested to host the meeting in Iowa to feature the agricultural benefits of the potential deal in a critical swing state. But the Chinese suggested Hawaii or Alaska – with a preference for Alaska, in part to revive a partnership over liquefied natural gas, according to people close to the talks. At earlier stages of discussions, Xi suggested the 2 leaders meet in Asia after Trump's Feb summit in Vietnam. Months later, the 2 countries were discussing a signing summit at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Beijing has suggested that a full-fledged state visit in DC would be required for Xi to visit the country.
Trump-Xi meeting to sign trade deal could be delayed as US and China debate terms and venue
The US collected a record $7B in import tariffs in Sep, fresh figures show, as new duties kicked in on apparel, tools, electronics & other consumer goods from China. Tariff revenue jumped 9% from Aug & was up more than 59% from a year earlier. The revenue is a bounty for the Treasury, but is an increasing burden on the American businesses that import Chinese products—& their customers.
Gold futures settled higher, a day after the precious metal lost its grip on the psychologically significant $1500 mark amid gains in stocks, yields & a firmer $ — all headwinds for the commodity. Some of those factors moderated, with bond yields sharply lower & the $ a bit weaker. Dec gold rose $9.40 (0.6%) to settle at $1493 an ounce, recouping less than ½ of what it lost a day earlier. Prices declined 1.8% yesterday to settle at the lowest level for a most-active contract since Oct 15 & notching the biggest one-day $ & % decline since Sep 30. Yesterday's dip marked the first time in 4 sessions that the metal finished below $1500, a level seen by technical analysts as a dividing line between bearish & bullish sentiment. Gains for gold picked up slightly today after a weaker-than-expected report the productivity of American workers. Productivity declined at a 0.3% annual rate from Jul to Sep, the gov said, marking the first decline in 4 years. Productivity fell a somewhat smaller 0.1% among American manufacturers.
Oil futures finished lower after US gov data revealed that domestic crude supplies rose for a 2nd week in a row, by nearly 8M barrels. Against that backdrop, West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec delivery fell 88¢ (1.5%) to settle at $56.35 a barrel. Jan Brent crude dropped $1.22 (1.9%) to $61.74 a barrel, following a 1.3% rise a day earlier the global benchmark. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude supplies climbed by 7.9M barrels for last week. Crude supplies were forecast to increase by 2.7M barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a rise of roughly 4.3M barrels. Investors also digested a report that Saudi Arabia is set to push the OPEC to make deeper oil production cuts pressuring laggard members ahead of its state-run oil company's massive IPO, which could value its Saudi Aramco at $4T. However, a report, which includes OPEC & allied producers, said that the biggest producers in the group won't push for deeper oil supply cuts when they meet next month. The delegates said they are more likely to stick to their current output targets & encourage producers to comply more fully with those targets.
Oil prices finish lower as U.S. crude supplies post weekly rise of nearly 8 million barrels
Just another stumbling block in the US-China trade negotiations & stocks pulled back. The popular averages are close to record highs & traders are not disturbed by this delay. Nothing serious if the delay damage can be repaired, but it must be done soon. Time is of essence.
Dow Jones Industrials!
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Trade uncertainties & a slowdown in manufacturing could cause Europe's economy to grow at the slowest pace in 6 years, the IMF warned. The organization said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook report that growth in the 19-member eurozone will fall to 1.4% in 2019, down from 2.3% one year ago, before rebounding slightly to 1.8% in 2020. In the continent's most advanced economies, growth dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3% in 2019, while emerging Europe remained a bright spot, with growth revised up by 0.5 percentage point to 1.8%. That's because in several of the countries, sluggish trade & manufacturing, combined with heightened trade & Brexit-related uncertainty, have started to rattle investors. Despite this, private consumption & the services sector remained resilient, boosted by a strong labor market as both employment & wage growth remain solid. Given the dire situation, a "synchronized fiscal response, albeit appropriately differentiated across countries, could become suitable," the IMF added in its report. "Monetary policy in many European countries should remain accommodative given subdued inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity," the organization said "At the same time, keeping interest rates low for long can create financial sector vulnerabilities, which need to be carefully monitored." The US remains one of the few countries without a dark outlook: In Oct, the IMF forecast the American economy will expand by 2.1% next year.
IMF warns European growth could stall to lowest level since 2013
A meeting between Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping to sign an interim trade deal could be delayed until Dec as the 2 parties look to agree on the terms & a new venue. A senior administration official said that the White House's goal is still to reach agreement with Beijing by Nov 16 – when the now-canceled APEC summit in Chile would have taken place – but it's not clear that that timeline can be delivered. “The first order of business is to complete the negotiations,” this official said, noting that the potential venue was just one element of the discussions. The official cast doubt on a signing summit in Sweden or Switzerland, which was reported as under consideration, but did not rule it out entirely. Trump has suggested Switzerland as a possible meeting location for the deal signing since Feb, saying, “there’s nowhere more neutral than that,” according to an official paraphrasing Trump's views. A potential summit in Europe would be relatively neutral territory for the 2 leaders, both of whom are conscious of the political optics of signing a deal on the other's home turf. Trump is scheduled to be in London for a gathering of NATO leaders on Dec 3-4, & people close to talks say, a potential signing could happen nearby before or after that visit. Last month, the Trump & Xi administrations started working to finalize a “phase one” trade agreement that included a pause in tariff escalation & China buying US agriculture products. The deal was expected to be signed during an APEC Summit in Chile this month, but violent protests in Santiago led to cancellation of the event. The US & China have been at odds ever since over a possible US location for the meeting. The US suggested to host the meeting in Iowa to feature the agricultural benefits of the potential deal in a critical swing state. But the Chinese suggested Hawaii or Alaska – with a preference for Alaska, in part to revive a partnership over liquefied natural gas, according to people close to the talks. At earlier stages of discussions, Xi suggested the 2 leaders meet in Asia after Trump's Feb summit in Vietnam. Months later, the 2 countries were discussing a signing summit at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Beijing has suggested that a full-fledged state visit in DC would be required for Xi to visit the country.
Trump-Xi meeting to sign trade deal could be delayed as US and China debate terms and venue
The US collected a record $7B in import tariffs in Sep, fresh figures show, as new duties kicked in on apparel, tools, electronics & other consumer goods from China. Tariff revenue jumped 9% from Aug & was up more than 59% from a year earlier. The revenue is a bounty for the Treasury, but is an increasing burden on the American businesses that import Chinese products—& their customers.
U.S. Collected a Record $7 Billion in Tariffs in September
Gold futures settled higher, a day after the precious metal lost its grip on the psychologically significant $1500 mark amid gains in stocks, yields & a firmer $ — all headwinds for the commodity. Some of those factors moderated, with bond yields sharply lower & the $ a bit weaker. Dec gold rose $9.40 (0.6%) to settle at $1493 an ounce, recouping less than ½ of what it lost a day earlier. Prices declined 1.8% yesterday to settle at the lowest level for a most-active contract since Oct 15 & notching the biggest one-day $ & % decline since Sep 30. Yesterday's dip marked the first time in 4 sessions that the metal finished below $1500, a level seen by technical analysts as a dividing line between bearish & bullish sentiment. Gains for gold picked up slightly today after a weaker-than-expected report the productivity of American workers. Productivity declined at a 0.3% annual rate from Jul to Sep, the gov said, marking the first decline in 4 years. Productivity fell a somewhat smaller 0.1% among American manufacturers.
Gold recoups some of its recent losses, but holds below $1,500
Oil futures finished lower after US gov data revealed that domestic crude supplies rose for a 2nd week in a row, by nearly 8M barrels. Against that backdrop, West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec delivery fell 88¢ (1.5%) to settle at $56.35 a barrel. Jan Brent crude dropped $1.22 (1.9%) to $61.74 a barrel, following a 1.3% rise a day earlier the global benchmark. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude supplies climbed by 7.9M barrels for last week. Crude supplies were forecast to increase by 2.7M barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a rise of roughly 4.3M barrels. Investors also digested a report that Saudi Arabia is set to push the OPEC to make deeper oil production cuts pressuring laggard members ahead of its state-run oil company's massive IPO, which could value its Saudi Aramco at $4T. However, a report, which includes OPEC & allied producers, said that the biggest producers in the group won't push for deeper oil supply cuts when they meet next month. The delegates said they are more likely to stick to their current output targets & encourage producers to comply more fully with those targets.
Oil prices finish lower as U.S. crude supplies post weekly rise of nearly 8 million barrels
Just another stumbling block in the US-China trade negotiations & stocks pulled back. The popular averages are close to record highs & traders are not disturbed by this delay. Nothing serious if the delay damage can be repaired, but it must be done soon. Time is of essence.
Dow Jones Industrials!
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