Monday, November 11, 2019

Markets pause after dimming trade hopes

Dow dropped 126, decliners over advancers about 3-2 & NAZ fell 27.  The MLP index was off y2+ to the 207s (another multi year low) & the REIT index crawled higher to the 398s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries dipped lower.  Oil was off pennies in the 57s & gold was even at 1454 (but down about 100 from recent highs).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil57.21
  -0.03-0.1%

GC=FGold   1,452.20
-10.70 -0.7%















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Stocks opened lower amid concerns the US & China still have differences that need to be ironed out before the 2 sides reach a phase one trade deal.  “China very much wants to make a deal,” Trump said on Sat.  “They’re having the worst year they’ve had in 57 years. Their supply chain is all broken, like an egg, they want to make a deal, perhaps they have to make a deal, I don’t know, I don’t care, that’s up to them.”  On Fri, the pre said, contrary to reports, that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs if a phase one trade deal were reached.  "They'd like to have a rollback," Trump said. "I haven't agreed to anything."  All 3 of the major averages opened lowered after closing at record highs on Fri.  The next record-high close for the S&P 500 will be the 100th while Trump has been in office.  In Europe, London's FTSE was down 1%, pacing the decline, after gov data showed the UK economy grew 0.3% to avoid a recession.  However, the 1% year-over-year growth rate was the weakest since the financial crisis.  Shares declined in Asia as investors watched for the latest developments in the Chiina -US trade saga saga.  Hong Kong led the retreat, with the Hang Seng falling 2.6% after a police officer wounded a protester in a shooting.  Demonstrators blocked subway lines & roads in the southern Chinese financial hub during the today's morning commute.  China's Shanghai Composite declined 1.8%, while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.3%.

Dow drops 100 points as Trump blows a hole in trade war hopes


The British economy avoided falling into recession in Q3, but annual growth is running at a near-decade low rate as a result of ongoing uncertainty related to Britain's departure from the EU & a subdued global backdrop, official figures showed.  The Office for National Statistics said that the economy grew by a quarterly rate of 0.3%.  That increase was solely due to a firm pick-up in July, as Aug & Sep showed monthly declines.  Following the 0.2% contraction in Q2, there had been fears that the British economy would fall into recession, commonly defined as 2 consecutive qtrs of negative growth.  Though a recession was avoided largely because of resilient household spending & higher gov spending, the British economy remains relatively weak, largely because of uncertainty related to Brexit, which is particularly impacting on business investment.  On an annual basis, the British economy was only 1% bigger in Q3, its weakest year-on-year growth since Q1-2010, when Britain was emerging from a deep recession in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.  With the global economy slowing & Brexit uncertainty still prevalent in the run-up to Britain's general election on Dec 12, few economists anticipate any marked improvement in the British economic outlook in Q4 or even next year.  Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes his Conservative Party can muster a majority to push thru his withdrawal agreement to facilitate an orderly British exit from the EU at the end of Jan, Britain's new scheduled departure date.  He says "getting Brexit done" will unleash pent-up investment.

UK narrowly avoids recession as growth screeches to a halt


No, “it’s not the economy, stupid.”  At least, not as far as the way a majority of Americans are currently planning to cast their votes in the 2020 presidential election.  Near 2/3 of Americans (61%) say the 2020 election will be about issues other than the economy, according to a CNBC & Acorns Invest in You sruvey by SurveyMonkey.  Amid historically low unemployment, strong consumer spending & a record stock market that Pres Trump cites frequently, the financial security many Americans feel today is leading them to focus on other issues when it comes to the ballot box.  34% of Americans say they will vote on the economy & that percentage rises with political party taken into account, but not even a majority of Reps (42%) say the economy will be the main issue in 2020.  That figure drops to 27% for Dem.  At the same time, when asked what issue “matters the most to you right now,” jobs & the economy is cited by 24% of Americans, #1 among all responses, followed by health care (21%), immigration (15%) & the environment (13%). These are the only issues receiving double-digit percentage support.  

‘Not the economy, stupid’: A majority of Americans say 2020 election will be about something else

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) set a sales record on Singles Day, the world's largest 24-hour shopping event.  Gross merchandise value, a figure that shows s>ales across its shopping platforms, surpassed last year’s 213.5B yuan record (nearly $30.5M) on Mon PM & kept rising through the rest of the day.  It was the 11th edition of the annual Singles Day event, also called the Double 11 shopping festival because it falls on Nov 11.  During the 24-hour period, which began at midnight in Singapore & Hong Kong, BABA offered huge discounts across its e-commerce sites such as Tmall.  Singles Day sales last year exceeded the spending by consumers during any single US shopping holiday such as Black Friday or Cyber Monday.  To help boost sales, BABA expanded the number of discounted items in this year's event and put a heavy emphasis on livestreaming via its platforms to help sell goods.  Livestreaming has become a big part of the shopping experience on Chinese e-commerce sites.  Online personalities often speak to their followers & talk about products as well.  The new record comes as it faces a slowing Chinese economy & stiff competition from domestic rivals.  While BABA is the name often associated with the mega shopping event, competitors offer their own sales.  The stock fell 3.23.
If you would like to learn more about BABA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BABA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Alibaba breaks Singles Day record of more than $30 billion in sales and climbing

Traders are resting on this semi-holiday, with many extending their weekends.  There is always excitement in DC & the latest uncertainty about the big trade deal should be dealt with tomorrow when traders are back in full force.  Meanwhile the popular averages are essentially at record levels.

Dow Jones Industrials








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