Dow rose 109, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ went up 13. The MLP index recovered 1+ to 205 & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 399s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries fluctuated. Oil pulled back to the 57s & gold remained steady at 1462 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
If someone asked you when the holiday shopping season starts, you'd likely point to Black Friday, when flocks of people swarm stores after a hearty turkey dinner to pick thru the hottest deals. But for more people in 2019, holiday shopping started in Jul. Why? Amazon (AMZN)! AMZN's annual Prime Day extravaganza has “become a real part of the changing holiday dynamic,” according to NPD Group. “Its impact on holiday shopping should not be dismissed.” NPD Group found about 1/3 of people did some holiday shopping during AMZN's 48-hour Prime Day event this year. It surveyed 3485 consumers during Sep. 5% of people had already finished their holiday shopping ahead of Prime Day, which was actually 2 days this year, Jul 15-16. Still, about 17% of people are planning to start their holiday shopping on Black Friday, up “significantly” from 2018, according to NPD Group. The day is still the kickoff to the season for many. Retail execs on a slew of earnings conference calls this week spoke about how the season has been starting earlier & earlier. To some degree, this is the result of retailers looking at a compressed holiday season. There are 6 fewer days between Thanksgiving & Christmas Day this year. And so seasonal promotions started early.
Holiday shopping started in July this year, thanks to Amazon
Sales of previously-owned homes rose 1.9% in Oct, the latest housing statistic to demonstrate the upward lift low mortgage rates have provided to the US real-estate market. Existing-home sales occurred at a 5.46M seasonally-adjusted annual pace in Oct, up from a 5.38M rate in Sep, the National Association of Realtors said. On a year-over-year basis, overall sales were up 4.6%. The forecast was expecting the average annual rate of existing-home sales to increase slightly more to 5.47M. The median sales price ticked up 6.2% over the past year to $271K, as prices increased across all parts of the country. Unsold inventory was at a 3.9-month supply, down from 4.1 months in Sep & 4.3 months a year ago. Nearly ½ (46%) of homes sold in Oct were on the market for less than a month. Sales volume varied from region to region, the National Association of Realtors reported. Sales rose in the Midwest & the South, but fell in the more expensive regions of the Northeast & the West. Low financing costs the ongoing strength of the economy continue to buoy the housing market. “Historically-low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are undoubtedly contributing to these higher numbers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “We will likely continue to see sales climb as long as potential buyers are presented with an adequate supply of inventory.” But having an adequate inventory of homes isn't a given. The supply of homes for sale continues to fall well short of demand, leading to higher prices across most of the country. Indeed, the affordability crisis has become so acute that it has attracted the attention of the candidates running for the Dem presidential nomination. However, the low mortgage rates that have brought more buyers into the housing market have also attracted home builders, who have ramped up construction activity in recent months.
Gold futures were unchanged, ending the week with a loss, after data showing Nov gains in the US manufacturing & services indices & a rise in consumer sentiment buoyed benchmark stock indices, dulling gold's haven appeal. The IHS Markit said its flash manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 52.2 in Nov from 51.3 in Oct, the fastest rate since Apr. The flash services purchasing managers index in Nov also rose to 51.6 from 50.6, for the quickest expansion since Jul. Separately, the final reading of the Univ of Mich's US consumer-sentiment index in Nov was 96.8, above the Oct level of 95.5. The forecast called for an unchanged reading of 95.7. Dec gold settled unchanged, at $1463 an ounce, after trading as high as $1473 during the session. It settled yesterday at its lowest since Nov 13. Gold hung onto a gain today, albeit a modest one, following weak economic data from Europe & against a backdrop of trade worries. IHS Markit's purchasing managers indexes for the eurozone area pointed to slowdown in economic growth, even as German data showed some signs of life. Meanwhile, the UK's economic performance was the worst since Jul 2016, with manufacturing & services PMI both coming in below 50, a level that represents a dividing line between contraction & expansion. On top of that, Britain faces a general election on Dec 12 as it attempts to exit from the EU, which comes as Hong Kong is set to have District Council elections on Sun, amid violent protests in the semiautonomous region that have played out for months. Those geopolitical events & fitful progress toward a US-China trade agreement have supported the long-term bull case for bullion, even if it has retreated from a psychologically significant level at $1500 in recent trade. Today, Trump said in a phone interview that “we have a very good chance to make deal.” Meanwhile, China's Pres Xi Jinping said Beijing wants to work for a trade deal, but is not afraid to “fight back” to protect its own interests.
Oil prices had found support early Fri on growing expectations OPEC & its allies will agree to extend production cuts when they meet next month. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Jan delivery fell 81¢ (1.4%) to settle at $57.77 a barrel, while Jan Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 58¢ (0.9%) at $63.39 a barrel. The front-month US benchmark WTI contract off a tad for the week, while Brent, the global benchmark, saw weekly gain of a smidgen. Call that breakeven. Both grades ended yesterday at their highest levels since Sep 23. Oil's earlier climb was in line with news reports this week indicating OPEC & its allies, particularly Russia, are expected to agree to extend existing output curbs of 1.2M barrels a day, scheduled to end in Mar, thru mid-2020, when they meet in Vienna in Dec. Providing a hint on the production outlook, Baker Hughes reported a 5th consecutive weekly decline in the US oil-rig count. The number of active US rigs drilling for oil fell by 3 to 671 this week. Meanwhile, others argued that a mere extension of current curbs would fail to support the market amid what they see as signs of oversupply.
Stocks didn't do much today. Buyers returned to bid prices higher. However trade negotiations with China remain in flux & extending this rally will need more positive word on a trade deal. The Dow finished the week about 200 below the record reach on Mon.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
If someone asked you when the holiday shopping season starts, you'd likely point to Black Friday, when flocks of people swarm stores after a hearty turkey dinner to pick thru the hottest deals. But for more people in 2019, holiday shopping started in Jul. Why? Amazon (AMZN)! AMZN's annual Prime Day extravaganza has “become a real part of the changing holiday dynamic,” according to NPD Group. “Its impact on holiday shopping should not be dismissed.” NPD Group found about 1/3 of people did some holiday shopping during AMZN's 48-hour Prime Day event this year. It surveyed 3485 consumers during Sep. 5% of people had already finished their holiday shopping ahead of Prime Day, which was actually 2 days this year, Jul 15-16. Still, about 17% of people are planning to start their holiday shopping on Black Friday, up “significantly” from 2018, according to NPD Group. The day is still the kickoff to the season for many. Retail execs on a slew of earnings conference calls this week spoke about how the season has been starting earlier & earlier. To some degree, this is the result of retailers looking at a compressed holiday season. There are 6 fewer days between Thanksgiving & Christmas Day this year. And so seasonal promotions started early.
Holiday shopping started in July this year, thanks to Amazon
Sales of previously-owned homes rose 1.9% in Oct, the latest housing statistic to demonstrate the upward lift low mortgage rates have provided to the US real-estate market. Existing-home sales occurred at a 5.46M seasonally-adjusted annual pace in Oct, up from a 5.38M rate in Sep, the National Association of Realtors said. On a year-over-year basis, overall sales were up 4.6%. The forecast was expecting the average annual rate of existing-home sales to increase slightly more to 5.47M. The median sales price ticked up 6.2% over the past year to $271K, as prices increased across all parts of the country. Unsold inventory was at a 3.9-month supply, down from 4.1 months in Sep & 4.3 months a year ago. Nearly ½ (46%) of homes sold in Oct were on the market for less than a month. Sales volume varied from region to region, the National Association of Realtors reported. Sales rose in the Midwest & the South, but fell in the more expensive regions of the Northeast & the West. Low financing costs the ongoing strength of the economy continue to buoy the housing market. “Historically-low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are undoubtedly contributing to these higher numbers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “We will likely continue to see sales climb as long as potential buyers are presented with an adequate supply of inventory.” But having an adequate inventory of homes isn't a given. The supply of homes for sale continues to fall well short of demand, leading to higher prices across most of the country. Indeed, the affordability crisis has become so acute that it has attracted the attention of the candidates running for the Dem presidential nomination. However, the low mortgage rates that have brought more buyers into the housing market have also attracted home builders, who have ramped up construction activity in recent months.
Existing-home sales rebound 1.9% in October as low mortgage rates continue to provide a lift
Gold futures were unchanged, ending the week with a loss, after data showing Nov gains in the US manufacturing & services indices & a rise in consumer sentiment buoyed benchmark stock indices, dulling gold's haven appeal. The IHS Markit said its flash manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 52.2 in Nov from 51.3 in Oct, the fastest rate since Apr. The flash services purchasing managers index in Nov also rose to 51.6 from 50.6, for the quickest expansion since Jul. Separately, the final reading of the Univ of Mich's US consumer-sentiment index in Nov was 96.8, above the Oct level of 95.5. The forecast called for an unchanged reading of 95.7. Dec gold settled unchanged, at $1463 an ounce, after trading as high as $1473 during the session. It settled yesterday at its lowest since Nov 13. Gold hung onto a gain today, albeit a modest one, following weak economic data from Europe & against a backdrop of trade worries. IHS Markit's purchasing managers indexes for the eurozone area pointed to slowdown in economic growth, even as German data showed some signs of life. Meanwhile, the UK's economic performance was the worst since Jul 2016, with manufacturing & services PMI both coming in below 50, a level that represents a dividing line between contraction & expansion. On top of that, Britain faces a general election on Dec 12 as it attempts to exit from the EU, which comes as Hong Kong is set to have District Council elections on Sun, amid violent protests in the semiautonomous region that have played out for months. Those geopolitical events & fitful progress toward a US-China trade agreement have supported the long-term bull case for bullion, even if it has retreated from a psychologically significant level at $1500 in recent trade. Today, Trump said in a phone interview that “we have a very good chance to make deal.” Meanwhile, China's Pres Xi Jinping said Beijing wants to work for a trade deal, but is not afraid to “fight back” to protect its own interests.
Gold prices end lower for the week
Oil prices had found support early Fri on growing expectations OPEC & its allies will agree to extend production cuts when they meet next month. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Jan delivery fell 81¢ (1.4%) to settle at $57.77 a barrel, while Jan Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 58¢ (0.9%) at $63.39 a barrel. The front-month US benchmark WTI contract off a tad for the week, while Brent, the global benchmark, saw weekly gain of a smidgen. Call that breakeven. Both grades ended yesterday at their highest levels since Sep 23. Oil's earlier climb was in line with news reports this week indicating OPEC & its allies, particularly Russia, are expected to agree to extend existing output curbs of 1.2M barrels a day, scheduled to end in Mar, thru mid-2020, when they meet in Vienna in Dec. Providing a hint on the production outlook, Baker Hughes reported a 5th consecutive weekly decline in the US oil-rig count. The number of active US rigs drilling for oil fell by 3 to 671 this week. Meanwhile, others argued that a mere extension of current curbs would fail to support the market amid what they see as signs of oversupply.
Oil retreats from a 2-month high, with U.S. prices ending the week lower
Stocks didn't do much today. Buyers returned to bid prices higher. However trade negotiations with China remain in flux & extending this rally will need more positive word on a trade deal. The Dow finished the week about 200 below the record reach on Mon.
Dow Jones Industrials
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