Monday, November 11, 2019

Markets waver in light trading on worries about US-China trade

Dow recovered & finished up 9 (well off AM lows), decliners over advancers about 5-4 & NAZ lost 11.  The MLP index sank 3+ to the 206s & the REIT index added 1+ to the 399s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged in price & Treasuries continued weak.  Oil slid back o the 56s & gold dropped 5 to 1457 (more on both below).

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Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, expects to resume deliveries of its grounded 737 Max planes as early as next month & that airlines could be able to restart commercial service in Jan, sending shares sharply higher.  737 Max planes have been grounded since mid-Mar after 2 fatal crashes killed 346.  Investors cheered the new timeline, which indicated the company is near the tail end of the process of winning regulators' approval for BA"s bestselling planes, even though it was later than the previous estimates & repeated delays have prompted airlines to remove the planes from their schedules several times.  If the grounding is lifted in Dec & training approved in Jan “airlines could resume commercial service,” BA said.  “We know they need more time to get their fleets ready and pilots trained, but the plane and training [approvals] will both be done by January, permitting commercial service.”  The company halted deliveries of the planes after the global ban earlier this year & slashed production 20% to 42 a month.  The FAA reiterated today that its officials “have set no time frame for when the work will be completed.”  “The FAA is following a thorough process for returning the Boeing 737 Max to passenger service,” the agency said.  “We continue to work with other international aviation safety regulators to review the proposed changes to the aircraft.”  The company has completed a test of the software with the FAA in a simulator, one of 5 tasks required to return the plane to service, the company added today.  BA also has to to bring airline pilots into 737 Max simulators to assess how cockpit alerts & other factors affect pilot workload. The National Transportation Safety Board criticized BA in a report in Sep for underestimating the impact of such alerts on pilot performance.  Boeing needs to conduct a certification flight with officials & regulators also still have to sign off on new pilot training, which the company expects to have in Jan.  The stock jumped up 15.96 (5%).
If you would like to learn more about BA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Boeing expects 737 Max deliveries to resume next month, sending shares higher

Boston Fed leader Eric Rosengren warned that many top central banks have a limited tool kit to deal with the next downturn, & added efforts to rollback regulations on banks may be exacerbating risks to the financial sector.  “With rates this low, there is very little room to reduce short-term rates should the economy stumble, as the Fed normally cuts rates well over 4 percentage points during a recession,” Rosengren said in a speech delivered in Norway.

Boston Fed President Warns Central Banks Have Limited Tool Kits


Gold futures finished solidly lower to start the week as appetite for the perceived safety of assets like precious commodities continued to unravel as stocks rose.  Dec gold shed $5.80 (0.4%) to settle at $1457 an ounce, marking its lowest settlement since early Aug.  The skid for the metal comes after it marked its biggest weekly slide, off 3.2%, since May 5, 2017.   Commodity experts say precious metals may be in a vulnerable spot after recent record gains in the Dow & S&P 500 index, which imply that demand for assets considered havens may be waning in place of growing appetite for stocks.

Gold prices end lower to extend skid to 3-month low as haven demand fades


Oil futures settled lower as recent developments in Sino-American trade negotiations reignited some fears about demand for energy assets in the face of a prolonged tariff scuffle.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec delivery fell 38¢ (0.7%) to reach $56.86 a barrel after crude put in a nearly 1.9% gain for the week ended Fri & traded around its highest levels since Sep 24.  Jan Brent crude gave up 33¢ (0.5%) to end at $62.18 a barrel, following a weekly rise of 1.3% for the intl benchmark grade on Fri.  Pres Trump on Sat said negotiations between China & the US toward a partial trade deal, referred to as phase one, were going “very nicely” but he said that recent reports about an agreement to eliminate tariffs in stages weren't accurate & emphasized that he believes Beijing needs a deal more than DC.  The comments were made over the weekend as he prepared to head to a trip to Alabama, raised some doubts that a trade resolution was imminent.  “If we don’t make that right deal, we’re not going to make a deal,” Trump said.

U.S. oil sinks as China trade tensions flare up; Natural-gas prices skid 5.5% lower


The biggest news in the stock market was from BA which was responsible for bringing the Dow back to break even.  There was buying at midday & the Dow remained near even for the rest of the session.  Tomorrow there should be an update on the US-China deal clarifying the status on new tariffs.  Meanwhile protests in Hong Kong have lasted for more than ½ a year.  They have been getting more serious with no sign of going away soon.  Hong Kong is a major banking center & shipping port for a lot of China's exports & imports.  The protests could affect US-China trade negotiations.

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