Thursday, October 6, 2011

Higher markets on help for European banks

Dow shot up again, gaining 183 (closing near the highs) & bringing the total advance off the Tues lows to more than 700, advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ was up 46.  The Financial Index is up 14 in 2 days.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value165.14One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change  5.16    (3.2%)

The MLP index rose 11 (25 off the intra day lows) in the last 2 days plus one hour on Tues & the REIT index was up 5½ today to 206.  Junk bond funds are rebounding from their recent sell-off & Treasuries declined, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury near 2%.  Oil rose as Europe's central bank tried to strengthen the region's financial system.  Gold is above the $1,650, easing concerns that a major sell-off was underway.

Alerian MLP Index


Value343.10One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   6.32   (1.9%)


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.263%

U.S. 10-year

1.986%

CLX11.NYMCrude Oil Nov 1182.33 Up 2.65 (3.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]







Photo:   Yahoo

This week the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage fell below 4%, the first time ever, to 3.94%.  Freddie Mac said the average rate dropped from 4.01% last week, the previous low.  The average rate on a 15-year fixed loan, popular for refinancing, dipped to 3.26%, also a record low.  Mortgage rates are lower than they were in the early 1950s, when the average rate reached 4.08% for a few months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.  But then, mortgages typically lasted just 20 or 25 years.  Rates have been below 5% for all but 2 weeks in the past year & that has done little to boost home sales.  This year is shaping up to be among the worst for sales of previously occupied homes in 14 years.  Many are reluctant to take the risk in this market of high unemployment, scant pay raises & heavy debt loads.  Others can't qualify for the historically low rates because banks are insisting on higher credit scores.  Mortgage applications fell more than 4% this week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.  Refinancing applications declined more than 5%.

30-year mortgage below 4 pct. for first time ever AP


Decade’s Housing Growth Near Historic U.S. Low Even in Boom

Photo:   Bloomberg

The biggest housing boom in the last 30 years was offset by the sharpest slump in a generation.  But housing units over the last decade remained at lows not seen since the Great Depression, according to the US Census Bureau.  The number of homes, apartments & condominiums added over the decade grew 15.9M to 131.7M, a 13.6% growth rate.  Almost 90% of the growth occurred between 2000 & 2007.  There were 2.1M housing starts in 2005, last year there were only 587K.  The overall growth rate was slightly higher than the 13.3% between 1990-2000 & less than half the 28.7% recorded during the 1980s, when the maturing baby boom generation added 19.7M homes, & barely half the 23.2% growth registered during the 1940s.  The rate of homeownership dropped to 65.1M, down 1.7% from 66.2M in 2000, the sharpest drop since the 1930s.  This helps explain the housing depression that seems to be going on forever.

Decade’s Housing Growth Near Historic U.S. Low




Photo:   Yahoo

The Greek gov will submit a bill that includes the suspension of thousands of civil servants, as it pushes ahead with harsh austerity measures to stave off a potentially-disastrous default.  Parliament will vote next week on the bill which aims to suspend 30K gov workers at reduced pay by the year-end & further cut salaries by an estimated €2.8B ($3.73B).  The new cutbacks come on top of salary & pension cuts, as well as a string of tax hikes over the past year & a half that have outraged ordinary Greeks trying to cope with a 16% unemployment rate.  A day after a nationwide strike by civil servants shut down the gov & much of public transport, about 50 finance ministry workers protested peacefully outside the General Accounting Office over the expected salary cuts.  Greece debt problems are far from being solved.

Greek government pushing on with harsher austerity AP


The markets have had a stellar rise in the last 2 days.  Hard to believe that fundamental problems have evaporated so quickly.  Tomorrow is the big jobs report, buyers are not worried about a negative reading.  The European debt situation remains fluid after Italy's credit downgrade yesterday.  Greek still has not received approval for its next stage of bailout funds.  Then there's the US economic recovery along with major fiscal problems in DC.  The VIX, volatility index, fell 1 to the 36s.  Investors remain nervous.

Volatility Index (^VIX)

 


Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


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