Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Markets pause ahead of Q3 earnings season

Dow closed down 16 after zigzagging around breakeven all day, advancers ahead of decliners 5-4 but NAZ gained 16.  Bank stocks wavered as the Financial Index also remained close to breakeven.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value167.15One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    -0.11    (-0.1%)

MLPs had another good day, but the index remains below 351 representing a 10% decline from its record peak in Apr.  The REIT, after bouncing off lows last week, pulled back 4 to the 205s.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher while Treasuries fell from their Fri closing prices.  Oil ended a little higher while gold fell $4.

Alerian MLP Index


Value349.17One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change    4.12     (1.1%)

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.304%

U.S. 10-year

2.153%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...85.88 ...Up 0.47  (0.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





Click below for the latest market update:



Slovakia may approve the euro region’s bailout fund for Greece this week after a political storm that is likely to topple ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Radicova.  The largest opposition party, which said it won’t back the motion today, will support the revamped European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) in a 2nd vote, should the first try fail & bringing down the gov, giving the measure a majority.  But there is no date set for a repeated vote. Slovakia is the only country in the 17-nation euro area that hasn’t ratified the measure.  The Freedom of Solidarity party, one of the members of Radicova’s 4-way coalition, said it won’t support the EFSF even after the premier tied a no-confidence motion on her government, denying the plan a majority. Stock markets are nervous, awaiting the outcome. Slovak approval of enhanced powers of the EFSF, the temporary bailout fund, is crucial for adopting the key element in the strategy to prevent contagion from the debt crisis that has spread from Greece to other countries in the region.  You should know when the vote happens because the markets will either rally or sell-off.

Slovakia May Approve EFSF After Rebel Party Topples Radicova’s Government


A number of the largest banks, among them, Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), HSBC & Barclays, have announced plans to lay off up to 10K employees. Analysts are lowering Q3 earnings estimates for banks, putting more pressure on management to lay off workers. Street protestors are not helping.  Bank stocks are supposed to be market leaders & GS is considered the best in the banking group.  3 years ago GS got thru the financial crisis in fairly decent shape.  But this could be payback time.  GS stock has already had an awful year.  The stock has fallen more than 40% from its peak in the last 12 months (although up 56¢ today) at a time when falling bank stocks prices have been common.

Big Banks Planning Big CutsWall St. Cheat Sheet

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)


stock chart 


The VIX, Volatility Index, edged lower going below 33 (in high territory) reflecting nervous investor sentiment.

Volatility Index (^VIX)




Over the short term, there is a lot riding on the Slovakia vote.  Seemingly it will give approval for the next Greek bailout.  Of course this does not end Greek troubles, only buys more time until the next installment is needed.  DC is unsettled.  The jobs bill is all but done, so Dems are coming up with jobs bill II.  Who knows where that will take us.  Meanwhile that super committee is trying to come up with massive savings to reduce budgets deficits over the next decade.  Dow has gained over 1K this month with all the uncertainties out there.  Citi (C) is up 6 off its lows at the start of the month while earnings forecasts are being cut.  I call that a disconnect.  Q3 earnings season kicks off tonight.  Alcoa (AA) just reported 15¢ for Q3, below the 22¢ forecast, & shares are down 50¢ in after hours trading.  Not a good sign going forward.  

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


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