Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Markets rally on European hopes

Dow shot up 97, advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ was up 31.  Bank stocks are leading the way higher.  The Financial Index is up a dazzling 20 in Oct (off the 151 low) despite Q3 earnings estimates being lowered & a very volatile situation with European debts.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 170.37 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change     3.22     (2.9%)

The MLP index rose 1 to 350 & the REIT index gained 5 to 211.  Junk bond funds were up 1-2% & Treasuries were weak with a higher stock market.  Oil was a tad higher after going nowhere in the last 2 months.  Gold rose to a 2-week high as equities & commodities rallied amid optimism that European officials will tame the region’s debt crisis.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.305%

U.S. 10-year

2.208%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...85.97 .....Up 0.16  (0.2%)

GCV11.CMX...Gold Oct 11......1,684.10 ...Up 24.40  (1.5%)


Get the latest market update below:



Greek bailout II is hanging on Slovakia.  Its political parties rushed to find a way to approve Europe’s enhanced bailout fund after lawmakers rejected it amid a dispute over the future of Prime Minister Radicova who wants to start talks today with the opposition on a 2nd vote, according to a spokesman.  The premier said the only country in the 17-member euro area yet to approve European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) must find a solution to the issue “as soon as possible.”  But no time for a new vote has been set.  Global stock markets rebounded from earlier declines on optimism the EFSF changes will be approved.  Slovak approval of enhanced powers of the the temporary bailout fund is crucial for adopting the key element in the strategy to prevent contagion from the debt crisis that has spread from Greece to other countries in the region.

Slovak Parties Seek Way to Appove Bailout Fund Amid Dispute Over Radicova




Photo:   Yahoo

Greece's gov deficit continued to grow in the first 9 months of 2011 despite a series of austerity measures designed to raise revenues.  The deficit stood at €19.2B ($26.1B) for Jan-Sep from €16.65B last year. The 15% increase was slightly lower than the gov forecast of a rise to €19.24B.  Swell!  The ministry blamed the revenue shortfall on a deeper than anticipated recession, but said shortfalls were likely to be made up in Q4 as recent tax rises, such as a controversial property levy, kick in.  The figures relate to the state budget deficit, which excludes spending in some areas, & is not the criteria used for the EU's assessment of Greece's financial reforms.  To qualify for additional bailout money, Greece has had to push thru a series of austerity measures, including salary & pension cuts in the public sector, & repeated tax hikes.  The gov is also pushing thru plans to suspend 30K civil servants on partial pay by the end of the year.  Unions have been outraged, with workers staging near-daily strikes, demonstrations & sit-ins.  Both the Finance & Interior Ministry buildings were under occupation by protesters Wed & Finance Ministry employees have called a 10-day strike from Oct 17.  This discord looks like chaos to me.

Greek deficit widens in first 9 months of years AP


In Aug, US job openings fell for the first time in 4 months, signaling a sustained labor market recovery will take time to unfold. The number of positions waiting to be filled dropped 157K to 3.06M according to Labor Dept. Hiring increased 38K to 4.01M.  Job openings decreased 4.9% in Aug from a revised 3.2M in Jul (smaller than initially reported).  The drop in vacancies was led by trade, transportation & utilities.  Employers discharged 1.66M workers in Aug, down from 1.69M in Jul.  Total separations, which include firings, retirements & those who left their jobs voluntarily, were little changed at 3.97M.  In the 12 months (ended in Aug), the economy created a net 1.2M jobs, from about 47.9M hires & about 46.7M separations.  Compared with the 14M Americans who were unemployed in Aug, today’s figures indicate there were more than 4 people vying for every opening, up from about 2 when the last recession began 4 years ago. This recovery is merely lumbering along as companies, especially small & medium size ones, are hesitant about expanding their labor forces.

Job Openings Fell in August, Hiring Climbed


Stocks keep rocketing ahead, with no shortage of buyers in Oct.  Dow has risen 1.1K off the lows at the start of the month.  There are protests on Wall Street demanding change, the Greek debt situation is fuzzy at best & one sign after another says the US economy is not recovering so that it can add enough jobs to reduce the unemployment rate.  Alcoa (AA), a Dow stock & the first major company to report Q3 earnings, disappointed & is down 40¢.  The rest of the market is unconcerned even though AA sells basic ingredients used in just about all manufactured produces (i.e. a leading indicator for the rest of the economy).  However, the 3 month Dow chart shows it has retraced lost ground which has taken it to the top of its recent range.  Breaking out from here is critical if the bulls want to take the market higher. 

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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